Jeff Pierce's Instablog (Page 138)

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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More

My company:: Astrology Traders
My blog:: zentrader.ca

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Volatility In A Picture

This chart of the NYSE Advance-Decline Volume really gives a clear picture to the increased volatility we’ve seen over the last 6 weeks as we oscillate back from really oversold to really overbought. When you look at the Nasdaq chart in the bottom window it doesn’t appear that different from normal, but the 2 black windows really illustrate how difficult of a trading environment we are in.
Lowry’s (their service goes back 70 years) reported 13 different trading signals in a single month - unprecedented and has never happened in the companies history. So I guess we need to question what is the real character of the market now with HFT’s taking center stage in the markets.

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Sep 30 12:45 AM | Link | Comment!
Market Timing Call: Sideways

I’ve included a sidelines feature to my timing signal in light of the many whipsaws we’ve seen lately. I was busy all last night and couldn’t get this update outwith our eldest birthday party, but I do always email those on my newsletter when their are changes to my timing signal. If you want to be on that list you can sign up here. It’s free and there are other benefits to being on the list as well.
I was actually hesitant to cover my shorts after the market close yesterday, and I almost went against my timing signal and held it given that lately my signals have been negated the next day, but I did go to cash yesterday.
Markets evolve – so should timing signals.
I’ve added a box around the many whipsaws my timing signal is having right now and until we break out of that range (either way) I’m not going to get too excited about a timing change as this volatility should be telling us something – there is no trend right now.
I can’t authorize a bullish signal when the RSI on the 60 minute chart is so obviously bearish. I also believe we should see some additional verification that this signal has legs (in the form of bullish setups and confirming indicators I use) and will send out a call when the markets sort themselves out. The markets are up significantly in the pre-market and it will be crucial that they hold their gains for the bulls to remain in control.

Sep 27 6:28 PM | Link | Comment!
Natural Gas Blues

UNG is a bit of a head-scratcher as one could look at this chart and easily think it’s never going to turn around. I wouldn’t stand in a macro dialogue as to why this should or shouldn’t be under $10 bucks, but what is fascinating is the relentless selling seen in the chart and trying to figure out when would be a good time to get long.
The RSI has had positive divergence for the last 3 years – almost unheard of – which is a perfect example of why positive/negative divergence alone isn’t a good reason to place a trade.
For starters I would look for a weekly volume day somewhere equal to that of the largest weekly bar seen here…over 150 million shares traded – to indicate that some serious buying was taking place. I would also look for a move over 68 on the weekly RSI to indicate real strength in the chart. Yes you will forfeit some of the initial gains, but at least it would be a safer trend you would be trading.

Tags: UNG

Sep 27 6:26 PM | Link | Comment!