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Jeff Pierce
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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
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  • Head's Up Traders, Here's Some Star Candy!

    By Astrology Traders

    Karen here from Astrology Traders, I've got some great news and some really important astrology projections that will help you navigate the markets for November.

    First, we want to welcome Christopher Ebert, full time trader and options specialist to our Astrology Traders Service. Chris brings his options expertise and educational abilities to our team for traders looking for unique hedging opportunities and lower risk trades. You can read more about Chris at Astrology Traders

    November 5, 2014

    November 5th is important, I know it's the day after midterm elections that's not why it's important, the bigger concern here is the transit of Saturn in Scorpio activating a point that resonates with a dispensation from 1984. I don't want to go into the esoteric meaning here, I will simply define it as a block to those who are the sympathizers of war. This is HUGE and it will not go by unnoticed! I have been writing about this time frame for months now and have warned that 30 days prior to this date (October 5th) a stock market correction and acceleration of conflict in every corner of the earth would unfold while those who are the "holy power elite" begin to go crazy mad. The current uptrend is at risk of reversing beginning October 31st. Below are my date ranges from our September 28th newsletter update:

    October 2nd. - There could be a subversive move regarding the gold/silver trade with the Comex and CME Group. This is likely inconsequential for the general markets, however, I want to point it out since the price manipulation for the metals seems to be reaching a feverish peak within the gold bug community. Demand for the metals is very high and physical purchases are up over 200% so far this year.

    October 5th-October 13th- A critical time that could bring a crises. Volatility that is difficult to trade, best to hold tight and wait for setups.

    October 14th-October 30th- There is potential for a rebound in the markets here, however this time frame is interlaced with other difficult patterns, including a solar eclipse on October 23rd at 0 degrees Scorpio. There are more ominous portents coming with this eclipse that I will cover in next weeks update.

    October 31- November 17th- A significant pullback is likely.

    Currency and bond volatility will likely spike November 7th-8th while the Nasdaq looks to be more vulnerable with Uranus (rules technology stocks) is in square to the United States natal Sun at 13 degrees Cancer.

    Are you positioned for the market volatility in the coming weeks? If not come check out some 'options' (pun intended), we have just the opportunity for you. Join our free webinar next Thursday at 3;30 Eastern. We'll be discussing the trends going forward and we're gonna show you your options.

    Stay tuned for the webinar registration next week.

    Nov 06 9:42 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stairs Up And Elevator Down?

    By Poly

    This is an excerpt from this week's premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

    This reflex, counter-trend Cycle move, has now added 180 points in 10 sessions, more than eclipsing the 17 session fall that preceded it. They often say that equities take the "stairs up and an elevator down", which is why I find it very difficult to respect a move of this magnitude. To me, the only condition in which I can accept this type of all-inspiring move is if the market was headed for a final blow-off top.

    However, the Cycle count does not show new highs, at least not coming for another couple of months (only from the next IC). Massive "surprise" moves, such as a blow-off, have been known to occur from very unorthodox setups such as these. The point is that this 5 year bull market continues to demand my respect, even though the expectation for new all-time highs here is no longer warranted. In the end, price trumps any technical analysis and discipline.

    The S&P continues to bounce back much stronger than I would have expected. And this makes the move all that much harder to trust. To me, the action has all the characteristics of a desperate, counter-trend rally. This is how (bull) trapping markets form and I continue to see this as a 2nd Daily Cycle coming off a failed Cycle. In that case, my only expectation is to naturally remain bearish, while looking for a turn lower to begin at any moment.

    I'm curious now to see what role the ending of QE will play in this scenario. In my opinion, like we witnessed in past culminations of QE programs, this environment does fit the profile of a failed Investor Cycle well. This market will now need to sustain itself without QE and from a lofty (and failed Cycle) position. I find that difficult to see.

    (click to enlarge)
    Nov 06 9:15 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Crude Has Likely Hit Rock Bottom

    By Poly

    This is an excerpt from this week's premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

    In the past, we've discussed at length the structural problems facing Crude. So the pressure the energy markets are under, both from the demand and supply sides, should come as no surprise. This double whammy to the Crude market is not likely to be resolved overnight; demand-supply issues require time to work through a market.

    Through hydraulic fracking and a massive influx of investment capital, the US has again become a major oil producer. But it's the speed with which new supply from the US has come on line that has taken the market by surprise and rocked prices.

    The 4 million plus barrels of extra oil that the US is suddenly producing is causing a problem for exporters like Saudi Arabia, who now need to find new markets for their oil. Most of the world's oil is not sold in futures contracts for delivery one to three months out. Rather oil contracts are long term in nature, made over 1 to 3 year periods. And the competition for existing oil markets has been fierce, forcing suppliers to drastically cut their prices relative to spot.

    As the price of oil begins to fall, oil producing nations, most of whom are ill-equipped to handle sub-$80 pricing, will likely try to offset the revenue lost through lower prices by raising their production. Saudi Arabia, the only nation capable of meaningfully cutting production, has stated that it will likely increase production to maintain its revenue levels. The other nations capable of possibly cutting production are Iraq, Iran and Venezuela, but all have economic issues that make any cut (without general consensus) very unlikely.

    This should only perpetuate the glut of supply into 2015, setting the scene for much further declines in price as the markets are faced with continuing demand problems. If the European recession turns into a continent-wide event, its impacts on the world economy and, by extension, the demand for oil will put Crude prices under even more severe pressure.

    Judging by the Daily chart reversal in the energy stocks in the past 2 days, there is a good chance that Crude has finally hit bottom. As outlined earlier, I'm not bullish on Crude's longer term prospects, but the current sell-off has been severe, and is likely over for now. Given the uncertainty in the Crude markets, we need to see Crude form a Swing Low, followed by a close above the 10dma and a break of the trend-line. Once that occurs, it's likely that a counter-trend bounce will move price back to the $90 level.

    (click to enlarge)

    This sell-off has been extreme and much deeper than a standard ICL. The depth of the energy sector sell-off is on par with the last, big general market correction in 2011. The entire sector is now extremely oversold and should experience a decent rally during the next few weeks. But as in 2011, we don't know is whether the current move down is just the beginning of a deeper decline.

    (click to enlarge)

    Crude's weakness isn't surprising - sentiment has collapsed to near record low levels, below even those from late 2008. Based on the overdue nature of Crude's ICL, extremely low sentiment readings are suggesting that, at the very least, a new IC rally is about to begin. In the past, at similar sentiment levels, a selloff comparable to what we've seen would have marked the low for the Yearly Cycle. So as with the equity markets, Crude is seeing lows deep enough to spawn a multi-month rally. But we also have evidence that suggests that a structural decline is now in progress.

    (click to enlarge)

    It's clear that an extended 46 week Cycle is coming to an end. The final 3 weeks yielded $12 in declines, clearly Yearly Cycle capitulation selling. If it hasn't happened already, a new Investor Cycle will soon launch, so we're faced with two questions: just how far the current Investor Cycle will rally, and whether a longer term bear market has arrived.

    The presence of a new series of lower tops and lower lows on the Investor Cycle chart is suggesting that 2015 is likely to be a very challenging period for the energy markets. Like all assets, energy moves through Cycles of varying timeframes. I believe that the record investment of the past 5 years has resulted in too much production, which will lead to a period of business consolidation and bankruptcy.

    (click to enlarge)

    Related Posts:

    Investor Cycle Sell-Off In Crude

    S&P Has Topped For This Daily Cycle

    Strength In Aluminum Stocks Good For Markets

    Oct 22 11:14 AM | Link | Comment!
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