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Jeff Pierce
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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
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tradewithZEN
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  • It's A Precarious Time For Gold

    By Poly

    This is an excerpt from this week's premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

    This past weekend, I remained "on the fence" with regards to which direction gold was headed. Without clear evidence that the weekly (Investor) Cycle had topped, I had discussed how I was warming up to the possibility of this being a late stage 2nd DC, instead of the failed 3rd Daily Cycle scenario I had followed exclusively up to that point.

    Whatever the outcome, I maintain the position that it's just too difficult to trade gold on the Long side anymore. I'm glad we're out of positions because this just does not feel or look like an Investor Cycle that is headed higher again. Normally, in an uptrend, sharp drops into DCL's are quickly reversed, as the new Cycle powers higher. But this one has lingered for too long without catching a new Cycle bid and is almost $100 lower.

    Specifically, today the equity markets suffered another sharp reversal and bonds soared, both in response to comments made by president Obama and European leaders in response to Russia's actions in Crimea. These flight to safety moves are supposed to be in gold's "wheelhouse", especially so late (Day 34) in a Cycle. A bullish leaning asset would have taken that as a catalyst for a strong rally in a new Cycle. Instead, gold was muted and remained depressed.

    Yes, the Cycle count still supports the possibility of a (bullish) Day 34 - 2nd DCL here. But in all honesty, it's not a position one should be taking seriously here because it requires taking a considerable amount of risk. And as I outlined this past weekend, even a DCL right here is no guarantee of strong performance. A 3rd Daily Cycle would need to rally almost $100 just to break new highs and the risk of it falling well short and topping early is very real.

    (click to enlarge)

    In addition, we have an interesting development within the miners which should have all gold Longs concerned. With a fairly consistent track record of correlating to market tops, the precious metals miners' bullish percent chart has decisively turned lower. Once the charts of precious metals miners start breaking down like this, then it's almost always associated with Investor Cycle tops.

    (click to enlarge)

    Related Posts:

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    Tags: GDX, Commodities
    Mar 29 10:16 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Look At This Stock - VTNR

    By Jeff Pierce

    This low volume stock could be one to watch as it ran up before earnings and after releasing them today it's held it's ground. I like this breakout with the strong move and if you are one to trade lower volume equities then this could be for you.

    I'm using an intraday 60 minute chart to show that even though it's corrected off the highs in what would seem like a big move, it's really not. What this stock is doing is correcting intraday and removing any real overbought state during the trading session. I actually think based on how it's trading it's already corrected enough intraday that this could keep going higher. If it does have one more push lower then I think $5.50 could be the low before it moves higher.

    From Yahoo Finance

    Vertex Energy, Inc., an environmental services company, provides a range of services designed to aggregate, process, and recycle industrial and commercial waste streams, as well as off specification commercial chemical products.

    twz next.

    Related Post:

    Look At This Stock - EONC

    Look At This Stock - HPJ

    Look At This Stock - SNSS

    Tags: VTNR
    Mar 26 6:51 AM | Link | Comment!
  • 10 Days Of Strength For Crude Coming

    By Poly

    This is an excerpt from this week's premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

    The Gold Cycle might be confusing to read, but there is no such lack of clarity with Crude. The current action makes analysis straightforward because we now have a textbook Cycle low in place. Very few Daily Cycles make it beyond 45 days, and this slightly longer Cycle was likely compensating for a shorter 1st Daily Cycle.

    This deep in a Cycle, key reversals in price almost always turn out to be new Cycles. We have seen a solid Swing Low result in a clean break of the down-trend, and price end the week with a close above the 10dma. In addition, our technical indicators turned higher, perfectly supporting a new Cycle.

    (click to enlarge)

    With a 3rd Daily Cycle now in play, we should be prepared to see at least 10 sessions higher before we entertain the possibility of a Left Translated Cycle. With normal Crude Investor Cycles, we typically see just 3 Daily Cycle span a total of 20-24 weeks. Excepting the last IC, which was an extended 32 weeks, all recent Crude Cycles have been reliably within that range.

    My expectation is that the current 3rd Daily Cycle is likely to be the last of this IC. If that's the case, we need to allow room for the declining portion of the Investor Cycle by assuming a top in Crude by Day 15-20 at the latest. It is difficult to predict tops, especially since the last few Investor Cycles do not provide an overarching trend to lean on for support. Without a long term trend to guide our framework, we just don't know how deep the coming Investor Cycle Low is likely to be.

    (click to enlarge)

    Related Posts:

    Volatility Is Coming, But Which Direction?

    Speculative Buying Underlies Strength In Silver

    Bearish COT Report Fuels Oil's Mini-Crash

    Mar 24 1:43 PM | Link | Comment!
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