Jeff Pierce's  Instablog

By Jeff Pierce

Months ago I proposed the idea that Apple was going to be in for a correction and that it was possible for the Nasdaq to go up even with Apple going down. At the time it was nearly inconceivable to think that it could happen and yet it did just that.

And then last month when the Nasdaq looked as if it was going to have a more serious correction, Apple suddenly came to the rescue and suddenly matters to this index. I have no theories as to why this is happening, it's just something I noticed today.

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So the next question is just how far can Apple realistically go? I'd say there is a better then average chance we're just about there with an outside chance this goes to $500 before hitting the brick wall of resistance. If you're long and want to press your luck selling into that $500 level would be smart, but know that this could resume it's downturn any day now.

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By Poly

Crude oil inventories skyrocketed in an announcement today and it sent crude crashing by as much as $3 at the lows of the session. This was the largest weekly increase since September and it puts inventories at an all-time high. The announcement was further evidence that a combination of higher supply and weaker demand is having an impact. This is also the general theme across the commodity space, demand is weak and pricing is beginning to reflect this. We're all so fixated on the FED's impact that we might not be focusing on the right (demand destruction) issue.

Whenever you receive surprising announcements like this which favor the trend of the current Cycle, you generally will end up with larger moves in the price. My Cycle count has Crude on Week 24 and a Daily Cycle that was more than ready to roll over to form a Left Translated Cycle. The evidence or confirmation of a LT Daily Cycle has yet to present itself, but I feel that the reaction to this news (while the Dollar was dropping) was exactly how I expected Crude to react at this stage of its Cycle.

So we will need to see if there is downside follow through tomorrow. Another fall tomorrow would confirm the 10dma is lost and a pattern of lower highs will remain in play. That pattern projects one deeper low to come, which obviously in my opinion will be the eventual ICL. If we're to form a deeper ICL, then we should look for a rapid decline down towards the $82-84 level.

Crude has reversed lower as I've been expecting, now its matter of seeing follow through to the downside as this Daily Cycle should form Left Translated and decline over the next few weeks. If last week's highs are re-tested and taken out, then it's likely that the Investor Cycle count is incorrect; I don't believe new Cycle highs should be made now.

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By Mike Ber

The following is a special weekend report from ForexAlerts.ca recapping the major pairs they cover, how they traded them this past week, and what they look forward next week. They recently launched their service and are offering a 50% discount for a limited time. To learn more about currencies and take advantage of this offer click here.

Bias: Bullish-Neutral

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USD/JPY - 4 Hour chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 99.788

Range: 95.408 - 99.978

Downside: 95.408

Commentary:

USD/JPY is trading within the 95.408 - 99.978 range. The range is wide because our 98.944 level was taken our recently.

No changes in our outlook. The bias is Bullish-Neutral. The pair has very strong daily and weekly charts, but future outlook remains unclear, due to important upside barrier.

In our last week update we wrote about the expected pullback, but USD/JPY didn't retrace to acceptable levels for to enter long positions. We have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls at the moment, because they have momentum going. USD/JPY is probably will be testing our upper band 99.978 in near future.

We want to make our strategy clear: USD/JPY will need to break 99.978 with conviction. That would mean to actually break the level of 100. For now, the only way for us to enter the trade, is for the pair not only to break 100, but also hold the gains. After that we will be looking to enter long position on a pullback.

Our USD/JPY trades:

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

No positions

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

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EUR/USD - 4 Hour chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 1.32486

Range: 1.28655-1.32486

Downside: 1.28655

Commentary:

EUR/USD is trading within a new 1.28655 - 1.32486 range. The 1.3201 level was taken out recently.

We notified our members on Twitter on Thursday that we closed our short position, in order to get back in at a better price. We wrote: "We recommend selling entire EUR/USD position now. It's trading at $1.3065. We're not bullish, but it will likely rebound and we can establish a new position at higher prices for next leg down. EUR/USD: We are looking to get short again somewhere between 1.3109 and 1.3123."

We opened a new short position @ 1.3120. Our stop is 1.3248.

Our EUR/USD trades:

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

April 25th, 2013 - Entered short position @ 1.3049 - 1/3(targeting 1.28655)

May 1st, 2013 - Added to short position @ 1.3209 - 1/3 ( total position 2/3 - 1.3129 average)

May 2nd, 2013 - Exited short position @ 1.3065 - PL: +64 pips profit

May 2nd, 2013 - Opened new short position @ 1.3120 - ( position size = 2/3)

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

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USD/CAD - 4 Hour chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 1.01663

Range: 1.00136 - 1.01663

Downside: 1.01663

Commentary:

We changed our Bias to Bearish - Neutral from Neutral. The pair is trading within the 1.00136 - 1.01663 range.

If you are short 1.00136 support is probably a good level to take profits. The pair is not rallying up enough to give us a good short entry. We mentioned to our members that we wanted to start shorting @1.01406, and add @1.01663. Unfortunately USD/CAD only climbed up to 1.0131, and we didn't initiate positions.

We want to see how the pair reacts @1.00604 level of support. If the pair bounces off this level again, this could be an important support that will lead to a rebound in a coming week.

Our USD/CAD trades:

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

No positions

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

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GBP/USD - 4 Hour chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 1.56703

Range: 1.54643 - 1.56703

Downside: 1.53615

Commentary:

No change in bias or outlook. The bias is still Bearish - Neutral.

The pair is trading within the 1.54643 - 1.56703 range.

From our last week report: "The pair may continue upside movement to 1.5595 level; if the short trade is crowded, there might be a squeeze to this level. We are not over leveraged, and even though we hold a losing position at the moment we prefer the pair to climb to 1.5595 area of resistance, where we will add 2/3 to our short position that we took off previously. Our view didn't change, the charts are still bearish. We believe that this is one of the cases where big explosive move doesn't change the overall outlook. The development provides a better entry point."

We added to our short position @1.5590. The close above 1.5605 level may invalidate our bearish outlook, and we will consider closing our position at loss.

Our GBP/USD trades:

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

Still hold a small position (short @ 1.5250)

May 1st, 2013 - Added to short position @1.5590 (Total Position size = 2/3, 1.5505 average)

Bias: Neutral

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EUR/JPY - 4 Hour chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 130.90

Range: 126.955 - 130.90

Downside: 125.015

Commentary:

EUR/JPY is trading within the 126.955 - 130.90 range.

Our bias is Neutral. We are waiting on the sidelines until the next trend develops.

It's obvious that EUR/JPY is waiting for the resolution on USD/JPY's ability to challenge the barrier of 100. At this point support @ 125.015 provides a good buying opportunity.

The pair is trading in a wedge pattern, and we are looking for a break one way or another.

Our EUR/JPY trades:

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

No positions