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Market Letter May 19, 2012
Macro Outlook - by Nicholas Marriot

This has been a crap week for the market with the S&P down 5 days in a row. The macro outlook continues to deteriorate with the never ending crisis in Europe intensifying with no solution in sight. The only permanent solution is for Greece, Portugal, Spain and probably Italy to leave the Euro and until that happens expect more riots, strikes, bank runs, bond defaults and bailouts. Europe is facing a situation not unlike the US in 2008 when AIG, Merrill, Bear, Lehman etc all went under. Needless to say this prospect is not good for the market.

In the US the modest recovery seems to have slowed somewhat. The weekly jobs report showed no improvement in job losses and the monthly Philly Fed report was terrible… provoking Goldman to recommend shorting the consumer discretionary stocks ( Auto manufacturers, HD). I think we have seen the high in the S&P for the next few months.

In China the hard landing prospects are becoming increasingly dire and this is hitting material stocks. Since the beginning of May RIO has fallen from $56 to $43. and BHP has fallen from $76 to $62. Canadian material stocks have followed suit. Oil is also down with the easing of the Iran crisis, increased supplies from Canada and the US and reduced consumption in developed countries. If the economy in the industrialized countries continues to weaken oil prices will fall further.

If it were not for the situation in Europe I would be mildly bullish on the US market. S&P 500 profits are good and the forward P/E is attractive. The Toronto market has not participated in the first quarter rally but has dropped with last weeks correction and now represents reasonable value. The sectors I would stay away from are oil and metal stocks as these are likely to be volatile to the downside

My primary trading indicator, the 10 year monthly S&P chart will likely give a sell signal at the end of this month. The indicator line, the 10 interval EMA was almost at the crossover point at the end of April. Also my other two indicators, the CRB index (CRBQ) and crude prices (OIL) are also declining. However is likely that there will be a bounce at S&P 1278, the 200 day MA.

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Investment Strategy

Over the next week I plan to re-orientate my holdings to prepare for a volatile summer market. The first principal of investment in this climate must be preservation of capital. This means giving priority to return of capital not return on capital. Reaching for yield by purchasing riskier securities is a very bad idea since capital losses can far exceed the additional yield of one or two percent per annum. One should be long only the strongest blue chip stocks.

Proposed Portfolio

The principals followed in developing this portfolio are:

1. Blue chip dividend paying stocks only

2. Sufficient daily volume to get out quickly and easily in case of a market crash (except for the two preferred recommended. These could be replaced by CPD if desired).

3. Inclusion of short protection (HXD) and gold (ABX) to limit downside and reduce volatility. However the portfolio will be net long to reflect my mildly bullish outlook. If my primary indicator gives a sell signal at the end of the month I will increase the short position.

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4. Allocation to bonds to increase income and reduce volatility.

The following is a macroeconomic view of the current market from fellow Canadian investor Nicholas Marriot, who primarily invests based on fundamentals when leading stocks incur a significant pullback.

Nicholas can be found on twitter as @shlick if you'd like to follow him.

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Inside the Mind of a Zentrader Reader

By Chris Ebert

Facebook stock options are set to begin trading Tuesday, May 29. While many are waiting to see what the premiums will look like, a better approach might be to ask what they should look like. Would you buy car insurance from the first agent that offered you a policy? You might get a good deal, or you might not. While many drivers seem willing to spend a few minutes to ensure they are paying a fair premium, applying the same concept to Facebook option premiums, prior to actually trading them, seems prudent.

A feeling of mistrust may exist among some traders who believe the options market is rigged. The initial problems and rumors surrounding the Facebook IPO may tend to increase distrust of the fairness of Facebook options. To aid traders in making informed decisions about trading options, the following option chain is presented as representation of fair pricing along with the reasoning behind the calculations. Minor adjustments may be necessary if the underlying shares are trading at a price other than $32.

The actual option premiums may differ greatly from those shown here. A trader who believes that market makers are lining their pockets with outrageously high premiums always has the choice of joining the party by selling options himself, either naked or as part of a complex trade such as a covered call.

Volatility and time are the two most important factors in determining option premiums. Time to expiration is easily determined, but volatility is more abstract. Exactly how volatile is Facebook stock? There is no single correct response. Determining volatility is as much a scientific endeavor as it is an artistic interpretation of the market.

However, for near-term options such as those set to expire in June, one method of determining expected values of future volatility would be to assume that it will remain consistent with the historic volatility that has been observed over the past six days since FB began publicly trading. Lacking any significant projected event (earnings announcement, new product release, etc.) that might suggest a change in volatility prior to the June expiration, historic volatility appears to be a viable basis for estimating the future.

Determining historic volatility on a stock that has such a short track record is not exactly simple. It may be helpful to calculate volatility using several different methods to see how the results stack up.

• Deviation from average closing price: From May 18th to the 25th the average closing price of Facebook was $33.37. The average daily closing price differed from that amount by $1.84, which is a rough estimate of daily standard deviation.

• Standard deviation of closing price: Given the average closing price of $33.37, the average of the squared difference from that price is $5.63 and the square root of that amount is $2.37, which is a more accurate estimate of standard deviation.

• Average daily price range: Although the stock price initially made huge percentage moves, more recent stability has lowered the average daily price range to $1.60, also an estimate of daily standard deviation.

• One-week price range: The highest closing price from May 18th to the 25th was $38.23 and the lowest was $31.91 giving a one week range of $6.32. A conversion factor must be used to convert weekly volatility to daily volatility. Using a factor of 38% yields a value of $2.40, which can be considered to be an alternative estimate of daily standard deviation.

As the estimated values for daily standard deviation are all fairly close despite the method of calculation, averaging the results should give a good ballpark figure. Averaged together, the final estimate of daily standard deviation is $2.05, which is equivalent to an annualized standard deviation of approximately $32. Facebook shares are currently trading near $32, so a standard deviation of $32 represents an annualized implied volatility of 100%. That is high, but not unexpected after an IPO.

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Using conversion tables found in the book "Show Me Your Options!" it is possible to determine the approximate premiums for at-the-money options. Based only upon the short history of trading of Facebook stock, at-the-money options on Facebook with June 16 expiration should have a value near $3.50 when they begin trading on May 29. Additional conversion tables and projected liquidity can then be used to determine premiums at other strike prices, which are shown in the hypothetical option chain above.

The preceding is a post by Christopher Ebert, who uses his engineering background to mix and match options as a means of preserving portfolio wealth while outpacing inflation. He studies options daily, trades options almost exclusively, and enjoys sharing his experiences. He recently co-published the book "Show Me Your Options".

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