Jeffrey A. Miller

What the Sectors Are Telling Us

I'm a bit confused (well, a bit more than normal anyhow). If bond prices are falling then bond yields must be rising. How do rising yields translate into fear of deflation? Isn't it more likely a fear of economic weakness hand in glove with inflation (the proverbial stagflation scenario)?

Positive Divergences Continue to Stack Up

Sorry for the double post

Positive Divergences Continue to Stack Up

S&P P/E ratio level depends on where you determine the start of the bull market but your point is still valid. On the other hand, a review of the weekly chart for SPX on Marketwatch.com suggests that such an elevated P/E ratio was due to prices declining far faster than EPS rather than from any inherent economic strength. Also, in late 2002 and early 2003 interest rates were artificially low and the housing boom was in full upswing mode. Not likely a precondition this time around.

Positive Divergences Continue to Stack Up

S&P P/E ratio level depends on where you determine the start of the bull market but your point is still valid. On the other hand, a review of the weekly chart for SPX on Marketwatch.com suggests that such an elevated P/E ratio was due to prices declining far faster than EPS rather than from any inherent economic strength. Also, in late 2002 and early 2003 interest rates were artificially low and the housing boom was in full upswing mode. Not likely a precondition this time around.

Marc Andreessen on Financial Crises, No IPOs, and Obama

The other guy, McCain, has "... never been in the business ...". What business has Obama been in? Oh right, community organizing. If McCain is a crapshoot at least there are odds that he might get it more right than wrong. Obama's personal background, political track record and campaign speeches all indicate he will drive down the private sector in favor of raising up the public sector. No crapshoot there.

Debating the Lehman Collapse

gramps2: kudos! It must get old repeating yourself. I believe Bear, Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, et. al. must be allowed to fail. If the system cannot survive a collapse then we have no system. Let them fail, wait for the dust to settle and pick up the pieces after.

Creative Destruction is required for our capitalist system to succeed. Each bailout is one more step to a nationalized financial system.

And people like OregonRain and myself (yeah, I've got a small business too and everything I own is at risk every day) are the ones who pay the price. Lehman gets to borrow at the Fed. My credit line gets shut down. I'm transparent and solvent. Bring the SOB's down.