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Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold
- My inflation-based trend models suggest the fair price for gold is roughly $800/oz.
- It's possible I'm wrong, and this is what the case against me looks like.
- If you want to justify a value of $2,000/oz, or even say that today's $1,200/oz is fair, you have to accept some uncomfortable truths.
Places To Hide When It All Goes Down
- Not every stock is going to do what you think it'll do during the next correction.
- Many "high quality, large cap, blue chips" are 30-50% more expensive than they were during the last cyclical peak.
- There's significant downside if the economy slows down and the earnings supporting these valuations weaken.
- The best places to hide during the next market correction are generally less popular right now.
The Middle East Is Awesome, And Here Are The Pictures That Prove It
- The Middle East has been the #1 region in terms of risk-adjusted performance over the last 3 years.
- Valuations are still cheap, and the growth prospects are meaningfully higher than the developed world.
- It represents one of the most favorable positively-asymmetric bets at the global ETF level.
- It's a more stable region than you'd think, too, with a bevy of interesting cultural changes taking place.
How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You
- $800/oz. That's how low gold could go. No joke.
- Gold is still tremendously overvalued relative to its fundamental trend, masked by what is slowly being accepted as a bubble in 2011.
- Regardless of which direction gold goes from here, there are strategies that are vastly superior to buying and holding.
- A basic trend-following approach has generated almost double the return of gold with less volatility.
The Cheapest High Growth Stock In The S&P Is... Rowan Companies?!
- Earnings and the stock have been stuck in a funk. But that all could be about to change.
- RDC is the cheapest stock in the S&P 500 right now (on a 1yr forward PE basis).
- RDC has the 16th highest 5yr earnings growth expectations in the S&P 500.
- The stock currently trades just above rock-solid historical support.
- The result is a massively positive asymmetric 18-month trade with an attractive entry point right now.
The Only 20 Companies That Matter
- The most profitable 20 companies represent 20% of total U.S. profits.
- The biggest of these is still fairly cheap, while the next tier is considerably more expensive.
- Without any kind of major change in policy, profit margins aren't likely to revert on their own.
- Their current extremes may, however, make the next bear market nastier than we'll expect.
- Market bulls and valuation bears should be worried about the same thing: recession.
Corning: A Perfect Case Study On When To Sell
- Corning is no longer the irrationally-cheap business it was in 2013.
- Competitive headwinds have increased in the last year.
- For value & income investors, there is virtually 0% upside with 10-15% downside over the near term.
- If you do want to stay long the stock, consider adding a yield enhancement strategy.
Hellenic Telecom: In Great Shape And Slightly Underpriced
- The Greek economy has officially stabilized.
- Hellenic Telecom is in better financial shape than you'd think.
- The valuation is in line with other telecoms around the world, BUT...
- Even though management has been coy about a dividend, one is almost certainly coming in 2015.
- Cash flows support a current yield upwards of 5 or 6%.
- You Call Yourself A Contrarian? Then Buy Russia
- A Better Strategy Than Passively Owning Gold
- A Brief History Of Gold And Why It's Overvalued By A Factor Of 2
- Procter & Gamble Is Still Expensive But Investors Have Options
- OPAP Has Significant Upside As The Greek Economy Stabilizes
- Best Buy: What It's Worth And What To Do About It
- The Bubble In Blue Chips - Part 1
- Too Much Risk In McDonald's (The Stock, Not The Food)
- Corning's Opportunity Is In The Lack Of Risk
- Privatized Prisons: Public Relations Nightmare But A Pretty Great Business
- Favorable Tailwinds For Carnival Cruises
- The Most Important Thing To Know If You're Using Stocks As Fixed Income
- Forecasting The S&P 500's Returns
- The Production Cost Of Gold May Surprise You
- A Simple Look At Apple's Cash Flows
- Johnson & Johnson: 3 Things You Need To Know Before Buying At Current Levels
- Best Buy's Business Is Worth More Than You Think
- Gold Is Crashing: Catch The Falling Knife
- How To Intelligently Reload Your Dividend Portfolio
- Justifying Apple's Valuation: Is It Too Late To Get Back In?
- Was January's Rally Bogus?
- What We Talk About When We Talk About Netflix
- The Only 20 Companies That Matter
- What The Presidential Election Cycle Says About This Year And Next