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Jeffrey Dow Jones

 
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  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold
    Mon, Jun. 2 GLD 329 Comments

    Summary

    • My inflation-based trend models suggest the fair price for gold is roughly $800/oz.
    • It's possible I'm wrong, and this is what the case against me looks like.
    • If you want to justify a value of $2,000/oz, or even say that today's $1,200/oz is fair, you have to accept some uncomfortable truths.
  • Places To Hide When It All Goes Down
    Tue, May. 13 AAPL, AMZN, BP 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Not every stock is going to do what you think it'll do during the next correction.
    • Many "high quality, large cap, blue chips" are 30-50% more expensive than they were during the last cyclical peak.
    • There's significant downside if the economy slows down and the earnings supporting these valuations weaken.
    • The best places to hide during the next market correction are generally less popular right now.
  • The Middle East Is Awesome, And Here Are The Pictures That Prove It
       • Wed, Apr. 30 GULF 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The Middle East has been the #1 region in terms of risk-adjusted performance over the last 3 years.
    • Valuations are still cheap, and the growth prospects are meaningfully higher than the developed world.
    • It represents one of the most favorable positively-asymmetric bets at the global ETF level.
    • It's a more stable region than you'd think, too, with a bevy of interesting cultural changes taking place.
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Apr. 17 GLD 526 Comments

    Summary

    • $800/oz. That's how low gold could go. No joke.
    • Gold is still tremendously overvalued relative to its fundamental trend, masked by what is slowly being accepted as a bubble in 2011.
    • Regardless of which direction gold goes from here, there are strategies that are vastly superior to buying and holding.
    • A basic trend-following approach has generated almost double the return of gold with less volatility.
  • The Cheapest High Growth Stock In The S&P Is... Rowan Companies?!
       • Thu, Apr. 10 RDC 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Earnings and the stock have been stuck in a funk. But that all could be about to change.
    • RDC is the cheapest stock in the S&P 500 right now (on a 1yr forward PE basis).
    • RDC has the 16th highest 5yr earnings growth expectations in the S&P 500.
    • The stock currently trades just above rock-solid historical support.
    • The result is a massively positive asymmetric 18-month trade with an attractive entry point right now.
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter
    Wed, Mar. 26 AAPL, CVX, FMCC 229 Comments

    Summary

    • The most profitable 20 companies represent 20% of total U.S. profits.
    • The biggest of these is still fairly cheap, while the next tier is considerably more expensive.
    • Without any kind of major change in policy, profit margins aren't likely to revert on their own.
    • Their current extremes may, however, make the next bear market nastier than we'll expect.
    • Market bulls and valuation bears should be worried about the same thing: recession.
  • Corning: A Perfect Case Study On When To Sell
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Mar. 13 GLW 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Corning is no longer the irrationally-cheap business it was in 2013.
    • Competitive headwinds have increased in the last year.
    • For value & income investors, there is virtually 0% upside with 10-15% downside over the near term.
    • If you do want to stay long the stock, consider adding a yield enhancement strategy.
  • Hellenic Telecom: In Great Shape And Slightly Underpriced
       • Wed, Mar. 12 HLTOY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Greek economy has officially stabilized.
    • Hellenic Telecom is in better financial shape than you'd think.
    • The valuation is in line with other telecoms around the world, BUT...
    • Even though management has been coy about a dividend, one is almost certainly coming in 2015.
    • Cash flows support a current yield upwards of 5 or 6%.
  • You Call Yourself A Contrarian? Then Buy Russia
    Tue, Mar. 4 ERUS, RBL, RSXJ 85 Comments
  • A Better Strategy Than Passively Owning Gold
    Thu, Feb. 20 ABX, GG, NEM 126 Comments
  • A Brief History Of Gold And Why It's Overvalued By A Factor Of 2
    Thu, Feb. 13 GLD 576 Comments
  • Procter & Gamble Is Still Expensive But Investors Have Options
    Tue, Feb. 4 PG 25 Comments
  • OPAP Has Significant Upside As The Greek Economy Stabilizes
       • Fri, Jan. 31 GOFPY 18 Comments
  • Best Buy: What It's Worth And What To Do About It
    Tue, Jan. 21 BBY 23 Comments
  • The Bubble In Blue Chips - Part 1
    Oct. 18, 2013 BA, DIS, HD 126 Comments
  • Too Much Risk In McDonald's (The Stock, Not The Food)
    Oct. 11, 2013 MCD 66 Comments
  • Corning's Opportunity Is In The Lack Of Risk
       • Oct. 9, 2013 GLW 69 Comments
  • Privatized Prisons: Public Relations Nightmare But A Pretty Great Business
       • Jun. 6, 2013 CXW 51 Comments
  • Favorable Tailwinds For Carnival Cruises
       • May. 25, 2013 CCL 44 Comments
  • The Most Important Thing To Know If You're Using Stocks As Fixed Income
    May. 17, 2013 CLF, CTL, CXW 48 Comments
  • Forecasting The S&P 500's Returns
    Apr. 30, 2013 SPY 4 Comments
  • The Production Cost Of Gold May Surprise You
    Apr. 23, 2013 GLD 44 Comments
  • A Simple Look At Apple's Cash Flows
    Apr. 18, 2013 AAPL 39 Comments
  • Johnson & Johnson: 3 Things You Need To Know Before Buying At Current Levels
    Editors' Pick • Apr. 12, 2013 JNJ 49 Comments
  • Best Buy's Business Is Worth More Than You Think
    Mar. 9, 2013 BBY 43 Comments
  • Gold Is Crashing: Catch The Falling Knife
    Feb. 21, 2013 GLD, IAU, USO 17 Comments
  • How To Intelligently Reload Your Dividend Portfolio
    Feb. 19, 2013 ED, INTC, MCD 60 Comments
  • Justifying Apple's Valuation: Is It Too Late To Get Back In?
    Feb. 12, 2013 AAPL 21 Comments
  • Was January's Rally Bogus?
    Feb. 11, 2013 SPY 15 Comments
  • What We Talk About When We Talk About Netflix
    Editors' Pick • Jan. 24, 2013 NFLX 27 Comments
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter
    Nov. 10, 2012 AAPL, AIG, BRK.A 67 Comments
  • What The Presidential Election Cycle Says About This Year And Next
    Aug. 14, 2012 DIA, SPY 3 Comments