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Jeffrey Dow Jones

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  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 20 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    With a real rate of return over the last 114 years of pretty close to zero, there are much, much better places to make money in the markets than gold.

    MUCH BETTER PLACES. :-)
    Apr 20 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Production. Cost. Can. Go. Down.

    It has happened before and could happen again. It will happen if market. prices dictate it must.
    Apr 20 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Interesting point... nobody ever talks about this. In fact, I never thought about this really. It's a new dimension upon which we can criticize the CPI!

    Thanks for this.
    Apr 20 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Yeah, baby!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 20 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Yeah, I'm kind of disappointed by this. I guess you're right. Nobody cares about better ways to make money; they own this thing, and the price of this thing is about as far as they can think.

    As for the historical prices, these are fairly well documented. The prices were what the prices were. That's pretty much it. The fair market determines a price (or prior to the 1970's, the Treasury did) and that's the price of gold. This is true by definition. An asset is worth on any given day whatever the market on that day says it's worth.
    Apr 20 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Why do you believe $5000 is a good target? That's a lot higher from here.
    Apr 20 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    The 10yr projected returns have two inputs: the rate of inflation (actual in the past, and as projected by the TIPS market for the future) and the degree by which gold is over- or under-valued relative to trend. There are the fundamental trend drivers and whether the asset is historically expensive or cheap.

    Most basic price projection models work in an identical fashion. Grantham, Hussman, @JesseLivermore, Major Investment Banks & Research Houses, etc.

    The "actual" return line is simply that decade's actual forward rate of return. So basically, at every date on that chart there are two data points: what the model is projecting and what the actual return wound up being. Those points are what generate the lines.

    Hope that makes a little more sense.
    Apr 20 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Totally agree -- simple MA approaches can indeed produce a lot of whipsawing. Not just with gold, but anywhere you use them.

    You could definitely use a basic MA cross approach instead. They'd generate slightly different results over the long run, but my guess is that they'd correlate almost perfectly. Eg. be long gold when the 50 day is above the 200 day, etc.

    In spirit, it's the same basic thing. You're long gold when the trend is good and out when the trend is hostile.
    Apr 20 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    There is absolutely inflation in risk assets and luxury goods. Nobody's denying this.

    But inflation here isn't a proxy for inflation in the rest of the economy. And these assets can collapse, too. There's no guarantee that inflation will "flow out" to the 95%. Unless wages support higher prices on everything else, prices won't rise. They can't.

    Wages are a really key component of price inflation. They're what allow it to happen. No wage inflation, no systemic inflation. There's a lot of historical data to support this.

    I saw a story a while back on Marketwatch about accelerating labor prices. This warrants monitoring. If that trend holds, and the price of labor starts taking off, inflation will almost certainly follow.
    Apr 20 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Great points. I totally agree that even if the rate of reported inflation is understated, it isn't by much. The CPI gets a lot of criticism, but it's actually a really good metric.

    (Love the boldness w/Ukraine, btw)
    Apr 20 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    WHAT MACROTRADER100 SAID

    (Sorry, Mr. Caps Lock)

    Everybody needs to read and understand that comment and what it means. It is super, super important.
    Apr 20 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    True story: my coworker went to Russia about 10 years ago. He was blown away by how much material wealth was on display -- stuff like leather jackets, nice cars, jewelry, etc. He asked his cabbie what the deal was and the cabbie said that citizens were so mistrustful of their government, and perpetually worried that the government would just take all their money away or devalue their currency that they spent basically all their money on material goods.

    Russians have a lot of history and evidence to support their skepticism. They're behaving quite rationally.

    Such is the case with a lot of the world's less important currencies. Gold has a different meaning for people in these locales.
    Apr 20 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    I appreciate this!

    Comment threads can be very useful things if you use them the right way. There's a good community here at Seeking Alpha and some intelligent folks around here. A very diverse range of views. As an investor, these can be valuable things.
    Apr 20 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    "Perhaps like others, I think massive debt causes fear, fear causes gold purchases, and this drives the price."

    Maybe. This is pretty tenuous, though. Do you have any evidence that supports a direct linkage between debt-fear-gold? Or is that what your gut tells you? (Which is OK. It's OK to listen to your gut. We don't give our guts enough credit at times.)
    Apr 20 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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