Seeking Alpha

Jeffrey Friedland

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Jeffrey Friedland's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Economic Growth And Steel Demand Impact The World's Steelmakers [View article]
    To CMComas

    We WERE the financial advisor, but that relationship ended in approximately January of 2011, over two and a half years ago. We have had no relationship with the company since that time, and have received no compensation from the company since prior to that time.

    My disclosures at Seeking Alpha were correct. We weren't paid, but are shareholders.
    Jun 13 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Growth And Steel Demand Impact The World's Steelmakers [View article]
    What I think is dead in the water is MT, with X being a close second.
    Apr 24 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Prospects For U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    I agree with you on that. I do think that there is a good profitability that U.S. Steel will have a good profit for the first quarter.
    Apr 4 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Prospects For U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    I did previously indicate in an article here at Seeking Alpha the following:

    "When one takes a look at the full year results for U.S. Steel for 2012, it's not a pretty picture. The company's 2012 income from operations was $855 million. The company's loss for the year was $124 million, which included a loss of $353 million attributable primarily to the sale of its Serbian operations.

    Because U.S. Steel's full year results for 2012 were impacted by the sale of its Serbian operations, a better indicator for the company's current operations would be to review the company's fourth-quarter 2012 results. But, for the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. Steel Corp. reported a loss of $50 million, or $.35 per share, compared to a net income of $44 million or $.28 per share for the third quarter of 2012.

    On the positive side, U.S. Steel's fourth quarter 2012 results were significantly better than those for the fourth quarter of 2011. For the fourth quarter of 2012 the company's losses were $211 million or $1.46 per share."

    As I indicated in the first paragraph of today's article, we'll have the first quarter numbers the end of this month. If U.S. Steel is profitable, which, I indicated I hoped would be the case, you then still have for me the valuation issue. Then, as a profitable steelmaker investors will need to come to their own
    as to whether the company as a hopefully profitable global steelmaker is undervalued or overvalued. We can revisit this in a few weeks, as I think then, the discussion should also about the likelihood of continuing profitability, if the company was profitable in the first quarter.
    Apr 4 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Prospects For U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Please take a look at my articles on ArcelorMittal (MT). If you're bullish on that company, I would be surprised. I have highlighted in detail the problems with global steel producers, including the European problems, over supply issues, and that I see the bright spots in the global steel market being to some extent the United States and definitely China.

    My conclusion is that compared to most global steel makers, that U.S. steelmakers are "OK," but with China's steel market being about 46% (I believe) of global production and with China's economic growth, I'm definitely more bullish on the prospects for China's steel industry.

    Unfortunately, the Chinese steelmakers that trade in the U.S., and that have "US type transparency," and file with the SEC are smaller capitalization companies, especially when one compares them to ArcelorMittal, Nucor, or U.S. Steel.

    But, if you buy my underlying premise that China is the engine that will drive global economic growth for probably at least the rest of the decade, then steel, as a major component to industrial development and manufacturing will be a beneficiary.

    In China's case, assuming that the economy grows in the 8% to 9% rate, it's likely that the demand for steel will grow that amount, and that the oversupply of steel will disappear, sort of like the U.S. current housing economy using up the existing stock of houses.

    So, yes, I see minimal upside with so-called global steelmakers. I've outlined some of the reasons in my articles. But I think that the U.S. is OK for steelmakers, until you look at what is happening and likely to happen in China, and how bullish that is for the steel industry.

    If you also read the Wall Street Journal article, that was either published a day or two ago about the possibility of a new steel mill in Arkansas, it also highlights some of the issues that the steel industry faces in the U.S., issues that I've also discussed over the past months here at Seeking Alpha.
    Apr 4 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Outlook For U.S. Steelmakers Leads Me To Being Bullish On China's Steelmakers [View article]
    I'm more concerned about everything about MT being out of control. The company's history consisted of acquiring steelmakers worldwide, many of which were problematic, using debt. Now, not only does the company have a very high debt level, but its debt got downgraded.

    Additionally, the real problems the company has and is having in trying to reduce its European capacity, dealing with the politics in Europe, is like a noose around the company's neck.

    It just seems to me that everywhere you look at MT there is a problem.

    I'm not going to look at being bullish on MT until some of these issues get resolved, and I'm not sure that its current management team is the team to do it.

    Tangible assets are important. But, if tangible assets relate to steelmaking facilities that should be closed, then how tangible are they?
    Mar 27 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    With an objective of keeping social unrest in check, the Chinese government is letting wages rise. Over the past year or two wage increases by some factories have seen increases of 15%+. With a tight labor market in many areas, this has forced even smaller producers to raise their wages.

    There is a huge disparity of wealth and income in China, and continued wage growth, even at the risk of high inflation, I think will be the norm for the next few years.

    But, while increases prices for exports, and ultimately prices for consumers in the US, this will also likely continue to stimulate the local, Chinese, consumer economy.
    Mar 23 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Sorry. Inflation in China, driven primarily by wage growth will make goods in the US more expensive for Americans. This will affect shopping by Americans at Walmart, and purchases of electronics, mobile phones, etc.
    Mar 23 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Ben: It's incredibly likely that China will be the engine that propels global economic growth.

    And, China wins hands on due to the likely continued increase in GDP over the coming years.

    We'll have to see how Japan fares with its new chief of its monetary authority. But, the country, with an aging and stagnant economy has a long way to go.
    Mar 23 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Dancing Diva: Since you're "bullish on the long term economy," you have to be bullish on China, which will likely be the engine that drives global economic growth.

    So, take a look at China's steel producers, including those that I've written about here at Seeking Alpha over the past months.
    Mar 15 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Yes, CHOP has a value added, higher margin product, a smart strategy.

    But, don't right off other steelmakers in China. There will be likely more consolidation in China, and smaller efficient operators have the potential to be the winners, including China Industrial Steel (CDNN), in which I own shares.
    Mar 15 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    I don't follow the company, but it would be interesting to look at their business, and look at their revenue trends in light of North American reduced manufacturing (other than, for the most part the auto industry), and their profitability or lack of profitability and outlook.

    I'd rather own a Chinese steelmaker. China, which produces around 46% of the world's steel, has an economy that is growing at 8% or so a year. Compare that factor alone to economic growth in the US or for that matter Canada.
    Mar 15 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Sam: I agree with you regarding inflation in China. It is a big problem, and I'm not based in Shanghai as you are, but as I see it, I believe that the Chinese government knowingly is encouraging growth in wages as a way of diminishing social unrest and maintaining social stability, which is of primary concern to Beijing.

    So, I see inflation continuing in China, and my concern is related to China's export driven industries. Ultimately inflation in China will make goods cheaper to Americans and Europeans, the two most important markets. So far I haven't seen inflation being impacted by these factors in the US, and I'm not at all sure why.

    I think to some extent, China manufacturers/exporters are absorbing some or all of the increased costs, as a way to keep their factories busy, with the result that their gross margins will continue to decrease.

    Also, as I see it, the increase in wages in China, is part of a strategy to deal with the disparity of income and wealth. I'm also wondering what China's new administration will do further on this, as I see action likely.
    Mar 15 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Sam: You're right that inflation in China is a challenge, especially with the need to significantly increase the average workers' pay.

    But, while you may not think that the Chinese government can control inflation, and you're probably right, to a large extent the level of inflation in China and in other emerging countries is due to the Fed's running the printing presses and the Quantitative Easing programs. A lot has been written about this, and some governments have loudly complained about it.
    Mar 13 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Global Steel Industry, U.S. Steel And Chinese Steelmakers [View article]
    Sam: You're right that inflation in China is a challenge, especially with the need to significantly increase the average workers' pay.

    But, while you may not think that the Chinese government can control inflation, and you're probably right, to a large extent the level of inflation in China and in other emerging countries is due to the Fed's running the printing presses and the Quantitative Easing programs. A lot has been written about this, and some governments have loudly complained about it.
    Mar 13 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
122 Comments
47 Likes