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Jeffrey Friedland

 
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  • ArcelorMittal: Problems In Europe And Regaining Investment Grade Status [View article]
    I've been taking a serious look at steelmakers worldwide, what is, in many markets oversupply issues, plus political considerations due to jobs issues in closing mills.

    From my perspective, while the CEO is a great dealmaker in putting together this company, I'm not sure how good he is at running it in a difficult business environment.

    And, I think that the company has so many issues, I don't see, regardless of book value, investors would find this company attractive.

    I've been looking at Chinese steelmakers, with China having a growing economy, accounting for around half of global steel production, with many of the Chinese steelmakers trading at PEs of around 4 to 5, actual PEs, I might add, not forward PEs of 15, which is what MT is trading at.

    I'll be putting something out on this, hopefully in the next few days.

    Jeff
    Jan 21, 2013. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal: Problems In Europe And Regaining Investment Grade Status [View article]
    My biggest concern about the company's future has to do with its European operations that it's stuck with. With the flat to negative economic growth in the Euro Zone, coupled with high unemployment, I'm concerned as to what the company's costs will be to maintain their European presence, as I don't see many governments allowing them to close mills and related facilities.
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Take A Fresh Look At China Yuchai In 2013 [View article]
    Norman: Thanks for your comments. There definitely is an increased interest in Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., and see that filtering down to some of the smaller cap stocks as well.
    Jan 9, 2013. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acceleration Of China's Auto Industry Leads To Opportunities For Investors [View article]
    The reality is that General Electric, while a "U.S. company" is in fact a global company, as is General Motors, IBM, Google and Apple. Many of the S&P 500 are in fact global companies, and take advantage of business opportunities and markets worldwide.

    For example, check out my recent article on Coca-Cola's operations in Mexico. The Mexican market is an incredible one for the company.
    Dec 22, 2012. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Iron Ore Prices Are Bullish For 3 Steel Producers [View article]
    I personally believe that as the Chinese economy improves and returns to annual GDP growth of 8%+ that the steel industry will improve.

    I am the opinion that many of the Chinese producers will return to their 2011 level of not only revenue, but gross margin and net income.

    I believe that we'll start to see the real results of the improvement in basic industry and its economy starting to show on the operating results of the country's steel industry starting late mid-first quarter to second quarter of next year.

    But, you're correct in that an increase in iron prices isn't by itself a bullish signal for steelmakers.

    I don't know much about CNAM, but I will take a look. But, from what you described about the company, my quick question would be to wonder how much scrap is generated in the U.S., due to the decline in manufacturing in the U.S. so that CNAM could be considered to be a growing business.

    Jeffrey Friedland
    Dec 20, 2012. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acceleration Of China's Auto Industry Leads To Opportunities For Investors [View article]
    Yes, Jeff Immelt the big Obama supporter. The one and the same.

    Yes, the GE, that tries to LEGALLY minimize its taxes to achieve the best return for its investors.

    Thanks for reading my article. Remember, both the U.S. and China can continue to grow. It doesn't have to be us versus them.

    Jeff
    Dec 12, 2012. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acceleration Of China's Auto Industry Leads To Opportunities For Investors [View article]
    Not exactly. But the world consists of global automakers. For GM to be "relevant" they must remain a global company instead of retrenching to the U.S. This will entail investment in production capacity in "growing economies," including China.

    Jeff Immelt the CEO of GE was on Charlie Rose's show the other night. He said that GE is a US company, but that its opportunities are global. He said that his role, on behalf of his shareholders was to grow globally, and that that included adding manufacturing in other countries.

    Many in the U.S. have to realize that globalization is here. There is no reason why both a China or India can grow economically, and the U.S. can grow economically as well.

    China or India's growth does not have to be at America's expense.

    What the U.S. needs to do is to deal with structural changes in its economy and adapt. Perhaps U.S. GDP growth in the 2.5% to 3.2% becomes the new normal. Perhaps unemployment above 7% becomes the new normal. If the case, government spending needs to be adjusted for this "new normal" so that the U.S. economic system is sustainable.
    Dec 12, 2012. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Acceleration Of China's Auto Industry Leads To Opportunities For Investors [View article]
    If you look at the full cost of GM's bailout here in the US, including the pension benefit obligation, which the government took over, and which no one talks about, they'll never be able to FULLY pay back the U.S. taxpayer.

    I believe, but I'm not positive, that some of the Japanese automakers in China have already seen an increase in sales. I'll check it out. The reality is that China is a big market, and if GM is succeed as a GLOBAL auto company, they must be in China. Plus China provides them with growth opportunities that they don't have in most of the world, including the U.S., despite U.S. auto sales being up over the past few months.

    If GM retrenches to being just a U.S. automaker, they will, I believe fail to exist in five or six years.
    Dec 11, 2012. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Best Take Advantage Of The Growing Demand For Coca-Cola Products In Mexico [View article]
    As far as I'm concerned it really doesn't matter that the U.S. ADRs are thinly traded. I've also maintained that all an ADR facility is, is for the securities to trade in the U.S. clearing system (DTC) and be priced in the U.S. dollars.

    It's better to take a look at the volume on the exchange where the shares have their primary listing, in this case Mexico.

    I've seen situations where investors buy foreign ordinary shares and then convert them to U.S. ADRs so that they could have them in their portfolio in the U.S.

    So, I don't think that the trading volume in the U.S. should be a negative for an investor wanting to own FEMSA.
    Dec 9, 2012. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Best Take Advantage Of The Growing Demand For Coca-Cola Products In Mexico [View article]
    PepsiCo (PEP) is a great company. But with the relatively stagnant economies in Europe and the U.S., the real opportunities are in growing economies, including Mexico.

    Personally I'd rather own the "piece of the pie" that is growing, rather than all of a Coca-Cola (KO) or PesiCo (PEP) with markets that are stagnant.

    If you like PepsiCo, keep an eye on their Mexican bottler that I mentioned in my article. And, if you want good exposure to Mexico, keep an eye on the two Coca-Cola companies there that I discussed.

    Thanks for your comments.
    Dec 9, 2012. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Best Take Advantage Of The Growing Demand For Coca-Cola Products In Mexico [View article]
    I'll watch the YouTube video today. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

    Time will tell, but with the company's recent growth, and the demographics in not just Mexico but Latin America, as a growth story I don't think that the company is overvalued.

    As has happened in the United States, the product line in emerging markets will likely be augmented by "healthier' alternatives, flavored waters, etc.

    The key for Femsa is that they've got the distribution channels and are well positioned to grow as Mexico's economy's grows, and as the middle class increases in size.
    Dec 9, 2012. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The SEC Action Against Auditors Of Chinese Companies One Of Gunboat Diplomacy? [View article]
    Briefly, many of the stock market listings pre-dated the change in U.S. "rules" and then the change in Chinese "rules." So, it is not a question of protecting fraudulent companies, nor companies wanting listings in the U.S. not necessarily abiding by the rules. It's a very complex political situation that affects good companies too, U.S. investors, the U.S. as a financial center, and China being able to attract foreign investment.

    Let's see how this dispute settles out over the coming weeks or months.

    Also, my position is not anti-American. I don't see why both our economy and the Chinese economy can both "win," instead of one succeeding and the other losing.
    Dec 8, 2012. 08:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Election Is Over - Time To Think About An Investment Strategy For The Next 4 Years [View article]
    Sorry about the delay in responding, but I didn't see your posting until now.

    Companies that are focused on the export sector are at the mercy of economic conditions in the U.S. and Europe, two of China's biggest customers. With economic prospects for Europe being bleak, and for the U.S. not being earth shattering, companies that are focused on consumers in China and the increasing middle class will have, I believe a more stable future.
    Dec 8, 2012. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The SEC Action Against Auditors Of Chinese Companies One Of Gunboat Diplomacy? [View article]
    I don't have any specifics as to SFUN, as I didn't comment on that company.
    Dec 7, 2012. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The SEC Action Against Auditors Of Chinese Companies One Of Gunboat Diplomacy? [View article]
    I don't think that it will results as drastic as you're suggesting, but China always retaliates against U.S. political actions, which I'm sure they're seeing this auditor issue as being.

    China will retaliate, but they don't move very quickly in doing so.
    Dec 7, 2012. 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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