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Jeffrey Moore

 
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  • Looking Backwards At Nevada Gold's Forward Earnings [View article]
    You are correct that there are certain card rooms that preform better (in terms of revenue) than the ones owned by UWN. However, one needs to look at where the rooms are located, compare the footprints of the locations, and a lot of other items. In many cases, revenues are improving for UWN's locations- a lot of them were bought as distressed properties that needed to be turned around. Turnarounds take time, especially in the service industry; operations that have historically been run badly can leave a bad taste in people's mouths and take time to recover. If you look at their numbers from a year ago, the card rooms from UWN actually generate more revenue as a percent of total card room revenue, than their 10 operations have as a percent of total card rooms in the state. While the hold percent didn't meet expectations, fluctuations of hold do happen. A single quarter of a bad hold is too soon to make a judgement.

    In regard to the Fortress note, it was coming due anyway, and the company needed to roll it over; that is a pretty standard practice when you purchase something with seller's paper. Had they waited longer, it would have been irresponsible. Addressing the property issue, you are correct. They own 2 of the card rooms that they run. But, a lot of their operations have restaurants in them as well, so, I am not concerned about the PP&E valuation. If they overpaid for anything, that would show up as goodwill, which, I personally place little value on when looking at the balance sheet.

    Additionally, I am surprised to hear your complaints about marketing. They recently gave away 20 Carnival Caribbean Cruises AND a new Toyota Camry. Are there any other card rooms that can do these sorts of promotions? Certainly not many can operate with the scale that UWN can.

    As such is the case, I am not worried about their WA ops. Looking at Cripple Creek, they sold it for a nice price given what it is producing. They will be generating interest on the sale and save a bit of money by paying off debt as well. Furthermore, not having the property will let them focus on the areas in which they are (and will be) located. Having a single property in Colorado, which current management didn't purchase, got to the point that it didn't make much sense.

    Plus, Cripple Creek is a brutal market... without going it into very much, the city has something like 14 casinos in it. That number is almost 1/4 of all of the card rooms in Washington state. The Colorado Grande was one of the smaller operators in the city. The situation in CO is almost completely the opposite of that in Deadwood and Washington.
    Dec 18 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farmer Brothers: The Coffee Stock That Was Left Behind [View article]
    I don't know your personal experience, but, they do have multiple lines of coffee, and have made a private label brand for Target (which most probably don't know is a FARM product). Personally, I am not the biggest fan of burgers made by Burger King and Wendy's, but that doesn't mean that if their stock traded at an acceptable price that I would pass them up, just because I don't purchase their product and others do.
    Dec 16 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Farmer Brothers: The Coffee Stock That Was Left Behind [View article]
    I think that you are missing the understated coffee bean inventory, that really does a lot to bump up the assets of the company. While the balance sheet has shrunk, it is largely due to an acquisition that will likely help out the company over the long term (but, I am not going to say that it was the best use of capital)... Presently, it doesn't seem that I am paying much for the expanded footprint. Just because they overpaid for something in the past doesn't mean that the cash flows the acquisition will provide the company are undervalued in the market place.

    Additionally, the company is restructuring and is working to find a new CEO. As I said in the article, even if the turnaround doesn't work, I have downside protection.
    Dec 16 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor Capital Allocation At Netflix But Not Nevada Gold [View article]
    Capital allocation and share issuance is something that all companies generally have in common. Figuring out where some go wrong, and others do well is something that will help out your investment knowledge. I am pretty familiar with UWN, don't follow any companies that have recently raised capital, and, their most recent S-3 has been the subject of controversy, much like NFLX. Hence, I mentioned it in the article.
    Nov 23 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nevada Gold's Sweet Deal With AG Trucano [View article]
    I will be writing about this soon... For a host of reasons, I don't view it as a bad transaction at all. You may want to subscribe to my blog (http://bit.ly/tEihXy) as some of the articles slip through the cracks and miss seeking alpha.
    Nov 3 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syms Bankruptcy: Investors Should Get More [View article]
    For some reason my disclosure/disclaimer didn't show up in the article...

    Disclosure: Long Syms. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as think about. I may buy or sell shares of this security at any time.
    Nov 2 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nevada Gold's Sweet Deal With AG Trucano [View article]
    They have been in an appraisal process for sometime, to make sure that there were not any mineral rights that they were missing. This write down is not a shock to me, and frankly, I am glad that they are doing it, as taking the write down now shields them from income taxes in the near term, rather than a few years out. The carrying cost is low, so, it isn't that big of a deal, and shouldn't change anybody's view of the intrinsic value of the company, provided that they had done their research.

    These guys are really good operators, but, when it comes to valuing land in Colorado, things get a little more tricky. Regardless, this is such a small chunk of the overall pie; they are likely going to generate significantly over $80 million in revenue in the coming year...

    Besides, present management didn't buy this land, they inherited it from previous executives, who almost bankrupted the company. Of the assets that the company had when Sturges came in, this is one of the 3.
    Oct 29 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syms' Exploration of Strategic Alternatives [View article]
    Here is a link to the notes (as SA has yet to pick them up...)

    ragnarisapirate.blogsp...
    Aug 10 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syms' Exploration of Strategic Alternatives [View article]
    My notes are up.
    Aug 9 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syms' Exploration of Strategic Alternatives [View article]
    I will be posting notes soon.
    Aug 3 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syms' Exploration of Strategic Alternatives [View article]
    Yes! Here are my thoughts:

    ragnarisapirate.blogsp...
    Jul 21 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperValu: What's Not to Love? [View article]
    In a nutshell, yes.
    Jun 23 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperValu: What's Not to Love? [View article]
    Union or not, the stock is cheap relative to the prospects for the company...
    Jun 22 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syms' Exploration of Strategic Alternatives [View article]
    The tax assessment value of the North Randall Store is about $4 million... Are you sure that the comps are for less than $1 million? While government assessments can be off, I highly doubt that it would be off by THAT much.
    Jun 14 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking LEAPS With Supervalu [View article]
    This is probably small part of the market aversion to the stock. I don't think that this will be a huge deal that the company can't work through.
    Jun 11 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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