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Jeffrey Robinson  

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  • Euro Strength Most Likely To Continue [View article]
    No, I disagree. Well, at least this rally will unwind. It is common for the euro to spike up into mid march then sell off hard later in the month. That has been the "typical" seasonal pattern for years, and I think this will be no different.

    This chart shows it. As long as it matches, I suppose the rally could run a bit longer, and when it sells off, it won't breakdown, but April to July is a more favorable time for euro.
    Mar 7, 2014. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD - Drops Sharply Below Key Level Of 1.37 [View article]
    Wrong. The euro is 10 pips below 1.37. Hardly a sharp move through support, and hardly a trend change for its multi-month trend generally higher.
    Feb 26, 2014. 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR Being Set Up To Fall Hard? [View article]
    Thanks for the report, but how can I use it to make money? The euro looks very strong here. Why is everyone predicting a collapse? The TLT:TIP ratio is at 0.95, consistent with huge deflation expectations which always leads to mega rallies in risk assets in the long run - stocks, gold, euro. The dollar is pretty much doomed long term.
    Feb 13, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Not OK And Not On A Sustainable Trajectory [View article]
    You think HFT should have any bearing on anyone's investment decisions? Really? Do you think HFT changes how much money Wal Mart makes or IBM?

    These are just arguments coming from people who don't "get" the market, who are probably positioned incorrectly for the rallies and find some red herring to blame for their mistakes.

    Sorry it keeps happening. Ignore HFT. It is MEANINGLESS.
    Jan 10, 2014. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Ackman Just As Wrong As He Was On J.C. Penney? Herbalife Q3 Results Suggest So [View article]
    The short squeeze already took place, and the stock merely went back to 2012 levels. Hedge funds took advantage of a player who made a mistake by revealing his hand, but are the making a fundamental play? Absolutely not. I guarantee they are looking to exit now that Ackman already got pressed. This was a TRADE, not an investment on their part.
    Oct 29, 2013. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Will Icahn Cash Out Sooner Than Not? [View article]
    I've begun to purchase puts against Herbalife


    The time is right at $73. End of trends printing on daily and monthly timeframes simultaneously. We're about to see some big government actions against this firm.

    Prepare for a mega-unwind that will make last year's liquidation look like child's play. Fair value: $0.
    Sep 19, 2013. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Fraud? That Is The Question [View article]
    I agree with Ackman and am prepared to buy a large block of long-dated puts at some point, but the timing signal I use has not triggered yet. It's coming within the next few months though. Herbalife is going to zero (or something like it).

    The "dumb money" is pushing this stock up one last time. Whether or not it makes a new high, we shall see, but there are a lot of lawsuits coming, probably as early as next year.
    Aug 8, 2013. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Not To Trade Volatility ETPs [View article]
    The VXV closed under 14.05 a few days ago. Over the past year, VXX returned an average of 20% over the next 5 days on the two occasions when VXV closed under 14.05. I'm not sure I understand the assertions here. The author seems to be saying that using relative levels of the VIX or VXV can't be used to trade VXX. Wrong. At some point, volatility will rise because that's the way normal markets behave, by breathing in and out and pulling back to release overbought conditions. Using the VIX might not be the best way since it is less correlated to the VIX futures which VXX tracks, but using VXV is entirely appropriate.

    Furthermore, the average 5 day return if you buy on the 3rd day of the month (Monday of this week) is positive for VXX. It is one of the few times of the month volatility is worth owning, after all the beginning of the month buying occurs.Not surprisingly, volatility bottomed exactly on the 3rd day of this month, as my statistics predicted.
    Aug 7, 2013. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Seas For Diana Containerships [View article]
    Returns after dividend cuts tend to be pretty positive for stocks historically because investors overreact and over-sell on the news. Take, for instance, SuperValu, which cut its dividend last year. The stock is up 400% this year.

    We like DCIX here.
    Jul 29, 2013. 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Line: A 6.9% Dividend Yield, A Burgeoning Industry, A Great Brand, A Lousy Investment [View article]
    Shorts have to pay a dividend to long holders today. Anyone short the stock better hope they go out of business soon, or they will have to keep paying dividends to long holders of the stock. They have paid a dividend since the 90s.
    Jul 26, 2013. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Too bad only 7,000 people viewed my article back in March which said to buy now and forever hold your peace.

    Every prediction made in the article has come true. And nothing has changed to make me turn bearish in the least. There are a lot of amateur stock market analysts calling a top. They are wrong, and will continue to be wrong, in perpetuity, until I see signs of euphoria (now is the exact OPPOSITE condition where everyone is calling a top).
    May 18, 2013. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Almost May, So Go Away [View article]
    Buy the defensive stocks which have been leading for months? No way. If anything sells off, it will be the things that have run the farthest. Instead, people should be buying cyclicals (consumer discretionary, commodity-related) which will benefit from a weakening dollar once the Fed announces that QE will continue and probably will be expanded and purchase sizes increased at an upcoming meeting.
    Apr 27, 2013. 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    The market has not topped yet. There simply is no euphoria. Someone might have been able to squeeze a few percent off some local peaks, but a short trade against the index is too low of odds to even bother. I'd rather be positioned long and take profits and buy the dip.

    5 reasons to buy and hold and never look back:

    1. Equity call buying is at decade lows (about half of what it was at the 2007 peak)

    2. TLT:TIP ratio is above 1. People are plowing into long-dated treasuries and expect no inflation. Market performance in the last decade has been exceptionally strong under these conditions looking out one year or more.

    3. The Fed is still easing with no communication of a change. Employment is not improving in such a way to change their stance.

    4. China is bottoming, not topping. Therefore, consumer discretionary stocks and commodity stocks are bottoming here and will explode looking out a year or more.

    5. I can buy blue chip stocks on the Dow that yield twice that of a treasury. Why would I buy a treasury?
    Apr 16, 2013. 04:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock ETF Investors Need To Keep Their Eyes On The Ball [View article]
    Bull markets have never topped on bad news, so the entire thesis here is on shaky ground. I haven't heard much good news lately, therefore, stocks will generally trend higher. I agree a pullback has to come simply because the VIX can't go to zero, but it's not reason to run for the exits. Maybe when some actual call buying and euphoria is present. As of yet, call buying is at the lowest level in a decade and calling the top is the new national pastime.
    Apr 12, 2013. 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    Another interesting angle is the political cycle. I've noticed markets tend to bottom and peak right around elections and bull markets run for entire terms of presidents. For example, there was a peak at Clinton's term ending, bottom at Bush's first term ending and second term ending. It's reasonable to conclude there won't be a significant peak until at least the end of Obama's term.
    Apr 4, 2013. 05:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment