Contrary To Goldman's View, The Housing Recovery May Not Be As Secure As Once Thought [View article]
I don't disagree that rates are low by historical standards. However, price-to-income ratios are high by those same standards, which means that interest rate increases have a much larger effect on affordability. Unless prices decline -- or income rises -- slightly higher mortgage rates will weaken the housing recovery.
Where Is The Small Business Recovery? [View article]
DigDeep --
It certainly seems plausible that centralization/consoli... would make small business growth weaker during this recovery, but the latest NFIB survey of small businesses (April 2012) seems to refute that. Only 7% of businesses pointed toward large business competition as the biggest problem facing small businesses. That level has basically been flat for the last few years.
For prospective, 22% believe poor sales is the biggest problem and 20% believe taxes are the largest hindrance to small business growth. Even inflation, at 9%, is believed to be a larger threat to small businesses.
Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
RLWSNOOK, I think you are mistaking payroll changes for unemployment. Take the following example.
Assume the population consists of 100 people and 70 people are looking for or have found work. The labor force participation rate is 70%.
If 65 of those people have jobs and 5 don't, the unemployment rate is 7.1%. (5/70)
Now let's say two people with jobs retire. The population stays the same, but the labor force participation rate falls to 68%.
If the companies hire two workers to replace the retired workers, the unemployment rate drops to 4.4%. (3/68).
Payrolls have stayed the same, there are still 65 employed workers, which is where you are getting your zero sum gain, but both unemployment and labor force participation rates have declined.
Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
RLWSNOOK -- Our study took into account that labor force participation rates have trended higher for older age cohorts. The graphs in the appendix show the general upward trend and an economically adjusted participation rates.
Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
WS1835 -- It's not just the age that affects labor force participation, but the racial and gender makeup within each age cohort also plays a role in determining participation.
In this case, white males have steadily left the labor force since 1990. The rate accelerated following the start of the Great Recession. The labor participation rate for non-white males and all female cohorts were essentially flat from 1990 until the start of the Great Recession.
The steady downward trend in white male participation from 1990 - 2007 cannot be attributed to changes in economic conditions. Thus, when we extrapolate that trend through the end of 2011, the difference between the actual participation rate and the extrapolation are not discouraged workers. They were expected to leave the labor force regardless if the recession occurred or not.
For example, loss of manufacturing jobs or other structural problems could be the root cause for the steady participation decline from 1990-2007. While those workers are potentially discouraged, they were not discouraged specifically from the Great Recession. Those structural problems were present before the recession and would have remained present even if the recession did not take place.
Another study examining why white males started leaving the labor force from 1990 - 2007 may explain the specific reasons for the steady decline in the participation rate during that time frame.
Contrary To Goldman's View, The Housing Recovery May Not Be As Secure As Once Thought [View article]
Where Is The Small Business Recovery? [View article]
It certainly seems plausible that centralization/consoli... would make small business growth weaker during this recovery, but the latest NFIB survey of small businesses (April 2012) seems to refute that. Only 7% of businesses pointed toward large business competition as the biggest problem facing small businesses. That level has basically been flat for the last few years.
For prospective, 22% believe poor sales is the biggest problem and 20% believe taxes are the largest hindrance to small business growth. Even inflation, at 9%, is believed to be a larger threat to small businesses.
Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
Assume the population consists of 100 people and 70 people are looking for or have found work. The labor force participation rate is 70%.
If 65 of those people have jobs and 5 don't, the unemployment rate is 7.1%. (5/70)
Now let's say two people with jobs retire. The population stays the same, but the labor force participation rate falls to 68%.
If the companies hire two workers to replace the retired workers, the unemployment rate drops to 4.4%. (3/68).
Payrolls have stayed the same, there are still 65 employed workers, which is where you are getting your zero sum gain, but both unemployment and labor force participation rates have declined.
Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
In this case, white males have steadily left the labor force since 1990. The rate accelerated following the start of the Great Recession. The labor participation rate for non-white males and all female cohorts were essentially flat from 1990 until the start of the Great Recession.
The steady downward trend in white male participation from 1990 - 2007 cannot be attributed to changes in economic conditions. Thus, when we extrapolate that trend through the end of 2011, the difference between the actual participation rate and the extrapolation are not discouraged workers. They were expected to leave the labor force regardless if the recession occurred or not.
For example, loss of manufacturing jobs or other structural problems could be the root cause for the steady participation decline from 1990-2007. While those workers are potentially discouraged, they were not discouraged specifically from the Great Recession. Those structural problems were present before the recession and would have remained present even if the recession did not take place.
Another study examining why white males started leaving the labor force from 1990 - 2007 may explain the specific reasons for the steady decline in the participation rate during that time frame.