Seeking Alpha

Jeffry Chmielewski

 
View Jeffry Chmielewski's Comments BY TICKER:
  • The Coming Rebound In Commodities, Coal, And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Just like they said the price of Natural Gas was never going down when it was at $12...
    Jul 2 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Rebound In Commodities, Coal, And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Chris - The Bonds still trade above 80 cents on the dollar... Makes the equity interesting. Correct trade is to short the bonds and buy 10 points of stock, but I say why not just buy the equity in small size and call it a day. Equity is totally mis-priced vs the bonds.
    Jul 1 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Rebound In Commodities, Coal, And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Nice article. I've been getting long ACI on this dip below $4. I think it is very compelling. Cash and liquidity pro-forma for the deal are around $1.8Bn and no debt maturities until 2016. The bet is basically that three years and $1.8bn is enough time and money for the company to heal. Only time will tell, but I think it is a reasonable bet.
    Jul 1 06:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Is A Long-Term Buy [View article]
    @pullgoodman
    EBITDA/Interest expense is still more than 2x and rising rates have little impact on interest expense as there are no material maturities until 2016. Liquidity of 1.4bn means Re-fi risk is off the table until then.
    Jun 25 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Is A Long-Term Buy [View article]
    Not going bankrupt anytime soon but may need a waiver of a debt/ebitda covenant in the fall. Decent liquidity and no near term maturities make this a very interesting speculative play.
    Jun 24 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: The Leer Mine May Generate Over $225 Million In EBITDA [View article]
    I think the real question is whether or not ACI trips a debt covenant before year end. Given cash balance and liquidity getting a waiver should be easy, but it may spook the market.
    Jun 4 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on ACI by Jeffry Chmielewski
COMMENTS STATS
596 Comments
1,488 Likes