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Jeremy Johnson, CFA

 
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  • Why Analysts Missed The Apple Correction [View article]
    I think you are fooling yourself a bit that sell-side analysts haven't for a very long time, if not always, been salespersons first and foremost. Sales people are not inherently bad, it is rather just their job to present the good aspects of a product / service / financial instrument. Since issuers pay most the bills, research analysts that serve issuer needs self-select to stay in those roles. No one is telling you what to do, but the promotions go to those that can help sales move paper.

    There are times when it has been easier. During sustained bull markets, you can get by slagging off more of of the losers, but those times usually don't last long enough to build a career.

    Keep your use of the sell-side to fact-based data gathering and free food.
    Dec 7 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An iPad Mini Won't Move Apple's Stock [View article]
    There is no reason not to make one, especially since Apple favors smaller screen sizes on the phone. A 7" tablet is a great form factor for many people. It's not about idle preference; sometimes, people actually need something smaller to use the device how they intend.

    But, as the author states, the mini is not a game changer, just an incremental addition to the product offering. iPhone 5 and its successors are what is important for Apple.
    Jul 11 07:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Now Dislike Apple [View article]
    I liked the game!
    Apr 17 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBAs, Gimmicks and Apple's Culture [View article]
    The issue isn't about Apple at all. It is about protecting the way the system works. Investors allocate free cash flow and managers run the business. Sometimes it works out when a company like Apple becomes a conglomerate, reinvesting all its cash in all manner of businesses -- even if they were to be mostly tech-related. Most of the time it doesn't. HP is one example. They took billions of cash thrown off by a highly successful printer business and reinvested it in very marginal lines of business. Corporate Japan writ large serves as another warning as does virtually every US industrial conglomerate. History has shown it just doesn't work out that well for shareholder value creation.

    It doesn't matter in this case. Apple will start paying a small dividend soon, do a special dividend and buy back stock. It will do it because it doesn't matter. Apple has no possible use for $100 billion cash. Literally, it would be hard pressed to spend it, even if it wanted to. It can't buy US businesses with it because the cash is largely overseas, and few foreign companies of any size would allow themselves to be bought or the premium would be so absurd that it would clearly be a value destroying move. Further, Apple has no desire to run or have responsibility for any large business.

    They will do because no one is going to sell their stock because there is suddenly a 1% dividend and $20 billion less on the balance sheet.
    Feb 27 07:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stock In America [View article]
    Nokia revolutionized mobile phones. It was AAPL before AAPL was, if you turn the clock back to 1998. Yes, you look at those phones today and you may laugh but they did it better than anyone else and they became the dominant mobile phone company in the world.
    Nov 28 03:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    They are not splitting because it doesn't matter. Studies done in the past 10 years show it may even reduce liquidity. The people still splitting are living in the past.
    Jun 7 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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