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Jeremy Robson

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  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 1 [View article]
    EMH is a ludicrous proposition. I am surprised that it still has believers in a modern world. Many people still believe that we are direct descendants of Adam and Eve, so maybe it is not so difficult to understand why it still has followers.
    Apr 22 08:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Time To Look At The Long Side Again [View article]
    So 45% upside and potentially 100% downside if the company is found to have been trading illegally. There are better odds than that at a casino.
    Apr 17 06:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2014: Stuck In Neutral [View article]
    Good article and agree with the conclusions in general. Growth is not going to move to 3-3.5% it will stay in the just under 2% range as there will be no more fiscal stimulus. Most commentators don't get the Us economy at the moment and ignore the fact that this is one of the weakest expansions in US history. Apparently that is about to change. The only analysis I would like to see is how much is due to demographics, how much to debt and how much to confidence that the present situation is unsustainable. It would then be possible to take a good guess when growth will pick back up to it's historical average. Certainly not in 2014!
    Apr 16 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500 [View article]
    Got to agree with earlier comments in relation to the point in the cycle. In the present QE zero interest rate environment it is very difficult to assess where we are in the cycle. My take on the next recession is that it is more a question of how far the Fed is prepared to go to support equity markets. Probably a long way which means that mid cycle may be correct but not for the reasons given in the article.
    Apr 11 11:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Boiler Room [View article]
    Realism as usual from this good contributor.
    Apr 10 04:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of Subprime Lending In The Auto Sector Is Not A Precursor To Economic Ruin [View article]
    Surely it is the aggregate total of subprime auto debt that the banks have taken on that is important. This is presently no where near the total of subprime mortgages going into the financial crisis which is probably why the author argues that there are no problems. However the asset of a car will provide the banks with much less security than a house if they have to repossess. I would tend to agree with the conclusions of the article now but would have to analyse the total debt build up and recovery rates to conclude that it will not cause a problem in the forseeable future
    Apr 9 05:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Looks At Ukraine And Shrugs [View article]
    All the 'yield' indicators have been seriously damaged by QE and the subsequent search for yield by large swathes of investors. This leaves their predictive power as almost non existent.
    Apr 9 04:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reaching For Yield [View article]
    Good article. I have been considering reducing my bond portfolio for exactly the same reasons as you have put in this article. Just looking for the trigger to do so. Still think there will be one and so am holding off but I am on high alert.
    Apr 6 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    The sentiment readings are the giveaway for me. These levels (although rising) after 5 years of economic expansion is a true tell. Confidence has been and still is lacking. We will not have a surge in growth as the author suggests, in my opinion. If the author then flip flops back to predicting weaker growth his reputation will start to rival Dennis Gartman on gold!
    Apr 4 10:37 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiot's Guide To High Frequency Trading [View article]
    Should be stopped. The liquidity argument is false.
    Apr 4 05:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Consequences Of Income Inequality [View article]
    Interesting article. Trying to confine debate on the article to specific areas of the conclusions is perhaps a step too far - but I suppose it stops biased debate. I am sure both the left and right will still make their points however.
    Mar 24 06:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fail To Prepare, Prepare To Fail [View article]
    Another forecaster who says that growth is going to suddenly surge in the second half. It won't. 2014 will be slightly worse than 2013 for growth, with growth for the year somewhere around 1.5%. Recession just around the corner in 2015, with signs beginning to show late this year. Most economic indicators have been on a long term negative path since 2011. it is just the path is only slightly negative and the time for the path to become recessionary is later this year/ early next year. The only question for the markets is how will they react if this scenario is correct. Any hint of a recession will bring on much more QE - and the net result for the market is ?
    Mar 13 05:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On That Hawkish Wage Talk [View article]
    Can the economy handle higher rates seems to me to be the more pressing concern. If it can't the evidence will suppress any moves to higher rates quite quickly.
    Mar 12 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dancing With The Stars And Confirmation Bias [View article]
    This article judges commentary on the past and not the future outcome. It is the future outcomes which are important and discussion on the rightness/ wrongness of any prediction should be based in the likely future outcome not the past result.
    Mar 12 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Won't Save You From The Next Bear Market [View article]
    I think that it is a big mistake to think that the Fed will not step in if a recession arrives. We will have more QE very quickly. The more interesting question is will it still juice the markets. On that I am entirely undecided but lean towards a no answer, mainly because valuations are so stretched.
    Mar 11 05:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment