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  • Are REITs a Good Investment? Two to Consider, One to Skip [View article]
    REITs, in general, have high payout ratios. When looked at in the context of other REITs, the payout ratios of these two don't look that high.
    Jan 24, 2011. 10:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Energy MLPs to Consider for Income [View article]
    The biggest downside I see, would be if the tax status of MLPs were changed. Eliminating the tax advantages would seriously reduce the attractiveness of MLPs. Fortunately, this does not seem likely right now.
    Jan 21, 2011. 10:41 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Country ETFs Sorted by Valuation and Momentum [View article]
    There are several studies that show that value combined with momentum is a good strategy.

    One such study is:
    pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/ValM...
    Jan 10, 2011. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector ETF Valuations and Momentum Rankings [View article]
    I don't know of any funds like this, though its possible as there are thousands of mutual funds.

    Starting one? The costs are prohibitive, and a strategy like this is not easy to market effectively.
    Dec 27, 2010. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector ETF Valuations and Momentum Rankings [View article]
    Hi Bravado,

    I used the median PE, which can be quite different from other methods of calculating the P/E. Also, I believe google finance uses the earnings per share of the ETF, not the underlying holdings, making their PE calculations for ETFs useless.
    Dec 20, 2010. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does the Baltic Dry Index's Decline Really Mean Anything for Stocks? [View article]
    Sorry about that.

    The green is the baltic dry index, the red is the S&P 500.
    Nov 17, 2010. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Believe the CPI Is Manipulated, Then Stocks Are Undervalued [View article]
    Supposing that we are calculating the P/E 10 as of 2000, the P/E 10 metric can also be looked at this way.

    P/E 10 = ((price as of 2000)*(adjustment for turning 2000 dollars to 2010 dollars))/((average earnings from 1990-2000)*(adjustment for earnings from 1990-2000 to be adjusted to 2000's dollars)*(adjustment for turning 2000 dollars to 2010 dollars))

    The adjustment for turning 2000 dollars to 2010 dollars is in both the numerator and the denominator, so it can be canceled out. This is a bit of a simplification and isn't the actual method used, but it should make it clearer.

    I should point out that I am not the one who made up the P/E 10 method. I just changed the inflation metric used to be similar to what many people believe "actual" inflation is. So if I adjust for a different level of inflation, I'm not actually changing the calculation, just the variables used in the calculation.
    Nov 16, 2010. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Believe the CPI Is Manipulated, Then Stocks Are Undervalued [View article]
    Each data point of the P/E 10 is calculated as the price from that point in time divided by the average of the prior ten years earnings adjusted to the price index of that date. So since each data point only takes into account 1 price point, there is no need to adjust the price for inflation, while the earnings are from across 10 years so there is a need to adjust earnings for inflation.
    Nov 16, 2010. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Believe the CPI Is Manipulated, Then Stocks Are Undervalued [View article]
    Actually, no, the numerator is not adjusted for inflation. The P/E 10 is the current price divided by the inflation adjusted 10 yr average of earnings. All I did, was to replace the official CPI numbers with a modified CPI in the spreadsheet available on Robert Shiller's website.
    Nov 16, 2010. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low REIT Yields Point to Below Average Returns [View article]
    True, dividends have been cut, lowering the dividend yield. However, if I normalize the dividend, the yield is still only 5.5%. That's better and may provide a more accurate picture, yet it is still significantly below average.
    Oct 27, 2010. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Expensive Stocks Be Cheap Relative to Value Stocks? [View article]
    Yes, it is possible for both growth and value stocks to be overvalued when the valuation spread is narrower than normal. However, it would indicate that value stocks are more overvalued than growth stocks.
    Oct 14, 2010. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Country ETFs Ranked by Valuation and Momentum [View article]
    I used the median p/e, which is not comparable to the average p/e or a modified average p/e as iShares uses. This is because a median p/e reduces the effect of outliers that distort a mean p/e.
    Sep 15, 2010. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Long Term Indicators Saying About the Stock Market? [View article]
    Thank you,

    Would you mind explaining a lethality index a little bit?
    Sep 6, 2010. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Country ETFs Ranked by Valuation and Momentum [View article]
    I only put major emerging markets in, because data isn't readily available. However, I will consider expanding the list in the future.
    Sep 3, 2010. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Country ETFs Ranked by Valuation and Momentum [View article]
    The order of countries ranked by median p/b and p/s is quite similar to the order of countries ranked by median p/e. I may add them if I ever do an updated article.
    Sep 3, 2010. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
35 Likes