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Jesse Felder
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Jesse Felder began his career in investment management at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded what is today a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. In 2000, he founded Felder & Company with a clear vision of creating an ‘extended family... More
My company:
Felder & Company
My blog:
The Felder Report
My book:
FIRE Wall Street
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  • Is "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever" Really That Scary?
    For the past couple of years "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever," has been frightening traders every month it's been updated. Below is today's update:

     
    It's important to note that the chart was actually created by Calculated Risk, a fantastic blog focused on finance and economic data. They didn't, however, give its famous moniker. It was dubbed "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever" by Business Insider who, through the sensationalized headline and power of their following, is probably responsible for its popularity.
     
    Another interesting fact to note is that this chart marks the percent of job losses since thestart of the recession. Indeed, we lost a huge number of jobs during the "Great Recession." But if we look at the percentage change in the number of jobs since the end of the recession, as ChartoftheDay.com does today, it tells is slightly different story:
     
    In fact, while it's still historically weak, job growth over the past two years has been better than the recovery after the prior recession (2001). And from the looks of it, I would wager it's been better than the post-recession period prior to that one, as well (1990).
     
    This doesn't change the fact that the "Great Recession" was a jobs killer like few the country's ever seen but, to be fair, job growth since then has been, relative to recent history, pretty damn good. But that won't help Business Insider boost their pageviews so don't expect to hear it from them.


    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Tags: economy, jobs
    Oct 07 12:33 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Looking For Clues At The Scene Of A (Possible) Change In Trend
    The stock market has been charging ahead now for months without looking back. Amazingly, revolution in the Middle East, a brewing sovereign financial crisis in the Euro zone and a nuclear catastrophe in Japan haven't been sufficient to dent the S&P 500 by more than a few percent.

    I, for one, think that Mr. Market may be ignoring these risks to his detriment and, at the very least, a significant correction may be in the cards. One valuable technical warning sign I look for is a cross of the 20-day exponential moving average beneath the 50-day ema. I've adopted this indicator from Carl Swenlin of Decision Point who has been using for years.

    While the major indexes haven't crossed down just yet there are a few key charts that have. First, the lagging financial stocks (which never did successfully break out) have recently seen their moving averages cross down:

     

    Bkx

     

    The Nasdaq 100, heavily weighted by the tech sector, briefly crossed down though it's now back up. Of course, we won't know if this is a whipsaw or not until after the fact:

     

    Ndx

     

    Retail is in the same boat:

     

    Rlx

     

    As are the Transports, which are also forming a clear broadening top pattern:

     

    Tran

     

    Dr. Copper (PhD in Econ.) is noticeably weak and has crossed down:

     

    Copper

     

    Conversely, after making significant lows in mid-February volatility spiked during the ides of March and has convincingly crossed up:

     

    Vix

     

    I'm not going to go out on a limb and say the correction is finally here like my friend Tom DeMark recently did (though my money's usually on Tom). No, "I'm just looking for clues at the scene of the crime" and, right now, the clues are telling me there's a good chance Tom will be proven right.


    Disclosure: I am long TWM.
    Tags: XLF, RTH, IYT, VXX, Stocks, Trading, Charts, Technical Analysis
    Mar 31 8:44 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Here's One Leading Economic Indicator That Looks Like Hell

    From Wikipedia:

     

    The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes...  
    Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

     

    As the chart above clearly shows, this index is currently testing its worst levels of the recession. Have the bulls just conveniently ignored this fact?
    Tags: Economy, Leading Indicators, Transports
    Feb 15 2:01 PM | Link | Comment!
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