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Jett Dueitt  

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  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    Wynn's debt load won't be a burden, the maturity rates are pushed out 5-10 years with the bulk coming due in 2020ish. They aren't over levered. I think the stock is stuck sideways between now and 2015 with more of a chance it falls than rises...but the company is not in financial trouble IMO. They are losing share, I agree. But financial trouble is not looming, regardless of debt load. They have more than enough FCF to operate and will make plenty of money in the next 10 years to pay down debt.

    LVS > Wynn, but Wynn is still a good company.
    Jun 11, 2012. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    WYNN's share is not going to zero though, it will continually drop until their new property hits. I have foretasted their share to hit 9% in '13 and '14...so I think it'll take a serious hit. But even at 9% share, I still come up with $80-$85 PT. Wynn is in good shape, anyone with a presence in Asia is. But I'm with you, LVS is the play here.
    Jun 11, 2012. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    While I don't think the situation is as dire as you do, I agree with the general thesis CP757. Wynn will be fine, I just think LVS is the better play going forward. Adelson has a better vision for new markets and becoming the first mover into a territory.
    Jun 10, 2012. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    Nobody is saying count Steve Wynn out...as we look back on the financial crisis though, it seems as though Adelson was the true visionary figure, not Wynn. Adelson was first to Macau, first to Singapore, first to Cotai. WYNN has been playing catch up to him on all fronts.

    The only thing SA did wrong was leverage his real estate the wrong way by starting projects without them being fully funded.
    Jun 10, 2012. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    CP,

    Not only are the dividends safe for your life, they will keep rising. Sands at these levels offer great value for long term dividend increases. The company is a cash cow.
    Jun 10, 2012. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    A pair trade is something I'm definitely looking into if WYNN can get back to $110. Not certain I'll put the trade on though, simply because markets can stay irrational for long periods of time. I like the idea, but sentiment is hard to break some times.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Jun 10, 2012. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    Thanks for the reply TFCAB, I agree with your post.
    Jun 9, 2012. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    JJJane,

    I know Macau generates 6x more than Vegas, not sure why you brought that up as I didn't mention Vegas in the article...it was Macau focused. Nearly every clipping I read and forecast I saw, projected 18-22% growth for 2012 in Macau. I modeled 20% at the end of last year.

    I've looked at WYNN's cash flows, and I like Las Vegas Sands' better. WYNN is not in trouble, by any means, but again as I said in the article..why pay up for growth that you won't see for 4 years. WYNN is and will be stagnant for the next 3 years.
    Jun 9, 2012. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Consumables Tell You All You Need To Know [View article]
    I disagree, soda is a niche brand... A lot diff than major chains
    Jun 8, 2012. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Gamble On Wynn Resorts [View article]
    Billinsd,

    Thanks for the comment. I agree with you, but it still doesn't change the fact that WYNN's intermediate term growth (3 years) doesn't warrant it's current multiple.
    Jun 8, 2012. 01:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Las Vegas Sands' Debt Won't Be A Problem [View article]
    BHSH,

    I like the idea of selling puts in LVS and am looking at the JAN '13 30 PUTs for around $2.10. Yields about 5% annually and if things do really fall apart you are owning LVS @ 28. I've sold JUN 42 puts, will probably get put those, and this week if we see some more weakness I'll sell JUL and SEPT puts in the low 30s.
    Jun 3, 2012. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Consumables Tell You All You Need To Know [View article]
    I agree with you on Europe, its a mistake to short on it. I think Q2,3 won't be as "gangbusters" because we have a new product hitting shelves in Q4, and there will be pent up demand for it...therefore people won't run out and buy the older version. Because of this, I think you'll see a selloff after these numbers but it should be bought going into year's end.
    May 31, 2012. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Consumables Tell You All You Need To Know [View article]
    Maurer,

    Thank you for the lengthy, thought out response. I'll touch on a few things..

    1. The stock has not done anything in the last year, you are correct, but I think that is mainly because they have been over valued. So, they earned $1.34/shr last year, and if you take my 21.5x, that brings you to about $29. So, in part, I think the reason they haven't really run up despite rapid growth is because the market has wrestled with the valuation. I don't think you can use a 30-35x P/E for this bc growth in units sold is slowing, but 18-22 is still reasonable.

    2. Yes, I have a higher revenue growth in 2014 because if you look at the numbers, a larger and larger portion of SODA's consumables are making up rev. I think customer awareness and flavor rollout will continue to expand and revenues will climb because of it. I place a higher emphasis on consumable growth than I do kits sold growth. This as long as kits sold do not fall off materially, then we would adjust numbers. So when you look out going forward by sheer numbers even with a slow down in Growth rate from 18% to 15%, consumable revenue still climbs enough to more than offset. Just a personal opinion from looking at the data and projecting moving forward.

    3. Sorry about my statement!

    4. I agree with you that expectations have always been too lofty with SODA, but I never bought into the targets. I am not long the stock although considering it, I never have been long because I never believed they warranted a 30-40 p/e. But now they are getting into a range where they are much more interesting. I think the biggest thing is their price rose faster than they were growing, and now that is reverting to mean. They only made $1.34 last year, there is no reason they should have been at 60, much less 40. But, at this time next year we will look back and see around $2.25-$2.50 in earnings, that warrants a different discussion. So I think they'll trade sideways for another Q, and start to ramp in the 2H 2012 as the market prices in 2012/2013 earnings.

    Thanks again for the comment.
    May 31, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Consumables Tell You All You Need To Know [View article]
    Thank you for the insight on the product, will you buy the new version coming out this year?
    May 31, 2012. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Halliburton May Not Be As Undervalued As You Think [View article]
    Raincity,

    Thanks.
    May 31, 2012. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
83 Comments
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