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Jim Brody

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  • Intel expands foundry partnership with Altera [View news story]
    Intel Foundry has unannounced mobile customer(s) in the bay area. Hmm, I wonder who they could be?

    See this job ad Intel posted last fall: http://linkd.in/1gYXaA9

    Some key parts:

    "The Mobile Solutions Architect is a new role being formed within the Intel Custom Foundry to lead the development of integrated specifications for our Intel Foundry mobile technology solution (Process, IP, Packaging, etc)."

    "Preferred Mobile Solutions Architect location is Santa Clara, California, but may be flexible. Travel is required. Customers are primarily in the San Francisco Bay Area and Foundry design and manufacturing teams are centered in Oregon."

    "Position of Trust: This role is a Position of Trust. Should you accept this position, you must consent to and pass an extended Background Investigation"
    Mar 26 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Is Given The Green Light [View article]
    It looks like the seeking alpha post was deleted. Here is a tweet referring to the post:
    http://bit.ly/1m2ur2z
    Feb 17 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Alibaba Save Yahoo's Sinking Ship? [View article]
    Quincy, try rerunning your comparison with earnings numbers rather than revenue numbers.

    According to Yahoo's Nov earnings release, Alibaba had net INCOME of $717 million in the April-June 2013 quarter. This was up from $293 million in the April-June 2013 quarter.

    EBAY has P/E of about 25.

    AMZN has P/E of about 1500, but they aren't really trying to make money yet (although they have been in business for over 15 years).

    If you take a $3 billion guesstimate for annual earnings for Alibaba and apply a P/E of 25 (very conservative for a company with explosive growth), you are at $75 billion. That was about a year ago.

    Right now, they could easily be at 2 or 3 times that valuation. In another year, they could be another 2 times higher.

    I think a $250 billion IPO in 2014 is completely reasonable, with market hysteria it could go as high as $500 billion.
    Jan 8 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Could Damn Well Be The Next MBIA [View article]
    Thanks. That is exactly what i was looking for.l
    Nov 27 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Could Damn Well Be The Next MBIA [View article]
    Quoth the raven, interesting article. I'm new to HLF and thinking of following Ackman.

    However, I'm looking at HLF's side of the story to see the other side.

    I came across this pdf file http://bit.ly/1a1KG7C

    Have you seen that? Has anyone addressed her points?
    Nov 26 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Is About To Implode [View article]
    I was also an Angie's List subscriber for a few years from about 2007-2010. It was also a very useful service for me. I quit renewing because I now know reliable plumbers, painters, carpenters, etc.

    I did not know it was a public company until recently. When I looked at their financials I almost fell out of my chair! I thought it was a small time operation with maybe a dozen employees. (That's all they need to maintain the website. People type in their reviews and submit it to a database. ) I thought they survived on the membership fees, like what I was paying them.

    To present the long side of ANGI: Angie's list creates significant value for small service providers. I witnessed this. I met an appliance repairman who was getting 4-5 jobs per week from Angie's list subscribers. Each job brings him about $100 for his labor. He is making $25,000/yr because of Angie's List.

    ANGI's story is that they will get a piece of that. How? They want to ultimately serve as an ebay/paypal for the service industry. Instead of calling the appliance repairman, you book and pay him right there on the Angie's list website. Angie keeps a cut and passes the rest onto the appliance repairman. He shows up on time, fixes your dishwasher and leaves. You leave a review/comment on the website. That's the ultimate goal.

    Of course, right now they are in growth mode and their financials look horrible. It's really a story stock, like a dot com in 1999. It's a story I find improbable, that's why I'm short ANGI.
    Jul 11 02:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A $234 Million Company Worth $0: Short Biozoom [View article]
    This web site does a good job of exposing these frauds
    http://bit.ly/19a3iYE

    I watch it, but 99% of the time you can't get shares to short.
    Jun 21 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $234 Million Company Worth $0: Short Biozoom [View article]
    This is clearly a pump and dump. The question is how to profit from it.

    I tried to sell short, but my broker, one of the largest retail brokers, has no shares available. You can't buy any puts either.
    Jun 21 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Intel Spending To Beat Physics? [View article]
    I like this article. I think you have two points:

    1. Intel needs high margins to sustain the high capital and R&D expenses needed to maintain the Moore's law roadmap for manufacturing.

    2. As Intel starts selling into the tablet/mobile markets, they will have lower margins.

    It follows from these two points, that Intel will not be able to sustain the high investment needed to maintain the leading edge of semiconductor manufacturing.

    I completely agree with point 1 and disagree with point 2. If Intel has a process that is 2-3 years ahead of what TSMC has, Intel's chips will be that much ahead of TSMC's customers.

    Instead of a $500 phone with a $20 CPU in it, plenty of people will prefer to pay $520 and get a $40 CPU that is faster/cooler/etc. Many others don't want to pay a premium, that's the market the lower margin manufacturers compete it.

    Intel is a premium brand. They have higher margins, because no one else can compete at their level. This is true in PCs and it will soon be true in phones/tablets.
    Jun 13 08:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ParkerVision's Case Against Qualcomm Going To Trial [View article]
    Mike, great article. I wasn't aware of this case and Parkervision.

    A few questions and comments:

    1. What do you make of Qualcomm's motion for "partial" summary judgement? Does it indicate that this case will go to trial, since there is no way that Qualcomm will win completely on summary judgement?

    2. It seems to me that the McKool Smith strategy must be survive summary judgement and work out a settlement. If this goes to trial no one (neither McKool Smith nor Parkervision) will see any cash for years, even if Parkervision wins a judgement, because it will be appealed.

    3. Any ideas on how to profit from the eventual collapse of Parkervision? My broker won't let me short PRKR.
    May 31 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Why The iPhone Will Soon Have Processors Built By Intel [View article]
    I have seen the $5k per wafer number quoted elsewhere. For instance, http://bit.ly/10NegJn

    Yield numbers are hard to come by, as I'm sure you know. I found this contract between TSMC and IDT http://1.usa.gov/10RZ7L2 In the contract, there is a minimum yield that TSMC guarantees. The minimum yield is defined this way “the Minimum Yield shall be set to sixty-five percent (65%) of the average Yield of the first three hundred (300) completed Wafers.” So, the 50% is really a guess based off of this contract.
    May 23 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Intel Could Jump 2 Moore Generations Ahead And Capture The Mobile Chip Industry [View article]
    My guess is that they just can't fill it yet. Fab 42 will pretty much double Intel's capacity, if you measure capacity in the number of transistors. This is also probably why they started the foundry business, to fill their fabs.
    May 21 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Intel Could Jump 2 Moore Generations Ahead And Capture The Mobile Chip Industry [View article]
    That's a great summation of the industry. The only point I would add is that Intel's model (design+fab, tick-tock) has a weakness: it's slow.

    The story of the past 5 years is that the market suddenly shifted to one where power conservation was the key factor. Intel was not prepared for that shift and it took them too long to get their low power design into production. While, Intel was shifting into low power mode, ARM designs were more desirable. Those days are ending soon.
    May 21 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LabStyle Innovations - Glucose Monitoring For The Mobile Age [View article]
    I agree with Tony on this one. I'd pass on owning a piece of this. The real innovation in glucose monitoring will come when someone builds a good non-invasive glucose monitor. Then, you can skip the lance altogether. Several companies are working on it C8Medisensors has one for sale in Europe, but it costs a fortune.

    The upside to these types of companies is limited, because as soon as someone really gets it right Abbott will come in and buy the company out for a small premium.
    May 15 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Earnings Could Double At Full Capacity [View article]
    David,

    I think the best option for the Intel foundry is Apple A series. Right now Apple pays Samsung about $20 per die and makes huge margins ($450) on the iphone package.

    The question is: would Apple pay Intel $80 per die on the A6 (or A7) and lower their $450 margin to $390 (or raise the price) to get away from Samsung.

    Some argue that Intel won't produce an ARM processor in their fab for strategic reasons, but if they can make more money producing A series processors for Apple than they can make producing and selling Atom processors, why not?
    May 15 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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