To say that the world is a different place than it was yesterday is a bit cliché; to say it is a different place than it was on Thanksgiving Day 2007 is the grossest of understatements.

Having hopefully been through the worst of the back side of the most recent bubble, and not wanting to raise why we might not be on the eve of a holiday that is a time of giving thanks, I would like to wish every one reading this a good holiday. Taking a moment to be grateful that we’re still here (to lament and bemoan for some) is not a bad thing today, tomorrow and everyday.

Whether we are currently in the eye of an economic storm the back wall of which is still lurking with prime residential and commercial mortgage defaults providing the knockout blow to an already weakened financial defense network, or as some say, the green shoots are turning into saplings, stocks have made their run up and credit spreads their run down providing some with reasonable returns for the year.

Transitioning, whether in triathlons or economic cycles, is usually the trickiest bit as the old method of conveyance, either by reason or design, will not be appropriate for the next leg of the journey.

This past weekend I went to see a film titled “The Sun”. It depicts the final days of Hirohito’s reign as Emperor Showa of Japan at the end of WWII. During one scene the still Emperor and Gen. MacArthur are dining in the palace and the general asks Hirohito why he thinks Japan lost the war.

The Emperor begins to state a few causes including overconfidence in Japan’s military might and an underestimation of the enemy but stops himself and then says he believed they lost the war because they became “insular and arrogant”.

There is a scene in the movie “Animal House” (which completely rips off Dr. Suess’ “Horton Hears a Who” in one fell swoop but that’s a story for a different day) where a small group is at Professor Riegert’s house and after the room fills with a certain scent the discussion gets a bit heady and the concept that our entire universe could be on the head of a pin in another, larger, universe is proposed. Grand stuff for sure but in the good professor’s case merely an attempt to raise Pinto’s awareness of a world outside of his own “Private Idaho”.

So with the perspective one probably only gets while riding in the space shuttle, and I am right here on earth I can assure you, I would present to you this morning a cure for world hunger and it all starts, if can imagine it, with pancakes.

With its current CEO having pulled a lever for John McCain, its previous CEO, who hand-picked the current one, having a long history of riding the elephant on election day and the head of its government-relations office having worked for one Ronnie and two Georges, Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of General Electric Co. (GE), could be the last person you might expect to support the government’s current involvement in banking and industry to the greatest extent it has since the 30s.

But, as they say on Wall St., trade the markets you have, not the ones you wish you had. It would appear Jeffrey has learned this lesson well and demonstrated as much when he said recently: “We’re all Democrats now”.

“Grave Dancer” sounds like something that would be air-brushed onto the tank of a ’54 Pan-head chopper or maybe even tattooed on the arm of the guy riding it, or maybe engraved on the handle of some famous outlaw’s pistol. The point is the term seems to conjure mythic proportions to wherever it might be attached to or inscribed on and when it comes to real-estate investing, that it was long used, as Sam Zell’s moniker makes the point that much clearer.

Mr. Zell is by no means an outlaw of any kind and from what I’ve read his taste in motorcycles is more towards racing bikes. But when you’ve picked as many real-estate market bottoms (and tops) and plucked prime pieces of property for pennies on the dollar, the universe tends to recognize talent and bestows on you a title to show its appreciation for your hard work.

With much, if not all, of the responsibility for pulling the U.S. and the world out of its slump sitting squarely on the shoulders of the venerable American consumer, yesterday’s news of Advance Retail Sales beating expectations by 0.5% rang the right bells for investors as we head into the all-important Holiday shopping season.

If brighter prospects were not enough, news after the close yesterday that the Oracle from Omaha had upped his ante in Wal-Mart (WMT) might be interpreted as another Buffett bet on a resurgent recovery. WMT’s CEO, Michael Duke, said “The economy remains challenging for customers and Wal-Mart sales, but we are encouraged by increased traffic and our market share gains,” when announcing earnings recently.

Allowing U.S. banks to keep bad assets on their books has resulted in a continued unwillingness to lend and generated a host of comparisons to Japan’s economy in the 90s which has been dubbed “The Lost Decade”.

The question now is not whether it was a lost decade but whether that decade is part of a lost generation. With their CPI falling 4.3% since 1989, deflation seems well entrenched in the Land of the Rising Sun. YoY numbers for September showed a 2.3% decrease which was the seventh straight drop. Additionally, the Bank of Japan forecast a 1.5% drop in its core consumer price index which excludes fresh food prices for the year ending March 31, saying that it expects a 0.8% drop in the measure in the next fiscal year and a 0.4% fall in the following fiscal year.

Let me start this morning by wishing all those “Jason” fans a very happy Friday the 13th! Interestingly there a number of analogies that can be drawn from that “horror franchise” as Wikipedia calls it and the current economic environment and yes, after all is said and done, Jason lives.

The tension in these movies comes as one by one the unfortunates are eliminated and the situation gets increasingly dire for the soon to be dead. It is a bit like that in the FX markets at the moment with news that Thailand, South Korea, Russia and the Philippines spent much of the week trying to prop up their respective currencies by purchasing dollars. This turned out to be about as successful as the survival chances of Jason’s next victim as the Buck ducked to 15-month lows during the process.

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) was the belle of the ball yesterday with news of orders surging 42%, cancellations slowing and revenue beating analysts’ estimates. “The improvement in consumer confidence over the past year, the increasing stabilization of home prices, the decline in unsold home inventories and the reduction in buyer cancellation rates suggest that the new home market should be improving. We sense that it is, though slowly,” was how Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll put it during the company's earnings conference call yesterday.

Were this pre-2007, there might be something to cheer in TOL’s results although as I write that, pre-2007 would probably have to be pre-2000 as Alan Greenspan’s pedal to the metal approach to monetary policy had distorted everything leading up to the bubble bursting almost as much as letting Lehman Brothers (R.I.P.) fail pushed the fear level as high as the bubble had risen, taking the world’s markets to equal but opposite extremes.

With all of the hot air we’ve seen expended over the last 2+ years, mostly in that non-state wedged between Virginia and Maryland, I for one have wondered if there was a way to harness that energy and possibly end this whole “dependence on foreign” oil problem.

Warren Buffett, a man who has demonstrated he knows how to put his money where his mouth is, is complimenting his “green bet” on trains with Mid-American Energy Holdings which recently won approval for a $2BN wind farm from an Iowa utility.

Back in the heady days when junk bond were the “new kid in town”, there was a euphemistic descriptor known as “yield to sales commission” which really just meant that all of the bond salesmen would focus on the bonds they could earn the most on if they were able to consummate a trade.

Congress seems to have picked up on this idea as in some cases it would appear it’s now “law by lobbyists funding” as the latest bill to extend the $8,000 first time home buyers credit not only increased the salary cap to $125,000 but also added a $6,500 tax credit for those who want to trade up and have lived in their existing home for at least 5 years.

If you had committed to spend $787BN of your constituents hard-earned tax dollars under the premise of getting the economy back on its feet and had woven tales of fancy to justify your actions, it would seem a pretty good time to skip town when the official number of unemployed ratchets north of 10%, lest people begin to wonder if you really have a handle on the problem, especially when two major off-year elections were just won by candidates from across the aisle.

The problem is that when our President travels to China he’s not going to get the warmest reception as a number of trade disputes - tires, nylon, steel pipe, pigs and industrial acid - have raised tensions between the two nations just when a “We’re all in this together so let’s help each other get out of it” mindset might be a bit more helpful.

In a little while we will get the data it appears the market has been waiting for all week concerning just how many people are working and how many aren’t.

With the fudge factors like the birth/death rate and number of people on Uncle Sam’s payrolls, the number will most likely be whatever the government wants it to be.

This “is not a bet on next month or next year. We’re going to own it forever.”

Now we all know forever is a long time but then given that it seems as if Warren Buffett has been around for that long, he’s probably qualified to make that statement.

Heading off the farm this morning but still staying out where you can count the number of traffic lights in town on one hand; driving along in ‘ole MacDonald’s brand spanking new John Deere (DE) and with climate control, GPS and an eight speaker sound system, there is nothing that “runs like a Deere”. The company recently announced they were bringing back 452 of the workers it laid off at its Ottumwa, Iowa factory which makes the equipment used by livestock producers. This also gives a little support to all the pig press from Monday.

Back to work is good but it should also be noted that the Deere facility in question employed 980 people before the full on freeze in the global economy hit so over half the original workforce is still walking, not running.

Although it appears the prospects for the producers of porcine products have prettied, yes, lipstick included, that cannot be said for all of the ‘ole MacDonald’s in the country.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported recently that due to a late planting season and a cooler and wetter fall than normal, only 20% of the corn crop is out of the fields vs. an average of 58% during the years of 2004-2008.

After yesterday’s about face erasing all of Wednesday’s rout and adding a few additional points to the SPX, does it mean that Ken Chenault, CEO of American Express (AXP), was right all along when he said: “Today, while there is still reason to be cautious about high unemployment levels, we are seeing broad-based improvements in credit quality, the trends in card member spending are encouraging, and there are signs that the recession may be approaching an end,” while discussing 3Q09 earnings?

After all, haven’t we been bludgeoned with the eco-snippet that 70% of our GDP is driven by the consumer and while possibly at the higher end of the spending spectrum, don’t most “card members” use their cards for consuming?

If yesterday was the beginning of the end of one of the top-10 bear market rallies of all time, there are many that will point to Burlington Northern’s (BNI) disappointing outlook as the straw that broke the camel’s back.

I think instead that it was news released by the National Retail Federation which recently published the results of its annual Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey (they actually have one of these?) which found that the average consumer was planning to spend 15% less on Halloween items this year including: candy, decorations and costumes. That works out to $56.31 per family, down from $66.54 in 2008. “The economy has caught up to Halloween this year,” Tracey Mullin, CEO of the NRF said.

Ever since Matt Taibbi informed us that Goldman Sachs (GS) was actually “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity,” the press has pressed the issue with numerous articles and a chronicling of their every move including and possibly most notably, their nominally record compensation pool for this year. I say nominally because on a percentage of net revenue basis it has actually been higher in the past. But hey, that’s not a headline!

The bubble that Mr. Taibbi would like to place complete blame squarely on Goldman’s shoulders for inflating actually took complicity from the entire vertical of participants from the law makers right down to the folks whose yearly income was 1/300th of the purchase price of the real estate they acquired, as was profiled in a WSJ article on the Indy Mac collapse earlier this year.