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Jim Fish

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  • Constellation's Wine Is No Crown [View article]
    ha why are you thanking me on MKC?
    Dec 23 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constellation's Wine Is No Crown [View article]
    agreed...

    waiting to get back in on MKC. Follow that one religiously.
    Dec 21 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constellation's Wine Is No Crown [View article]
    ha it's ok - i figured someone would take a shot at me here for this. there's no fun in an index besides macro news which it's been a backwards market the last few months (goods news = bad for market, bad news = good).

    What else you been looking at?
    Dec 19 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constellation's Wine Is No Crown [View article]
    Rich - if someone was right 24/7, then we would always listen to them. Buffet's not always right.

    Stories of stocks change over time, especially in this kind of environment. My points with this article were: 1) STZ is dependent on Crown 2) Management has a history of not integrating acquisitions well and having to impair - just look at this recent blurb from 2Q results (the most recent q): "Given these market trends, we have experienced declining performance in certain parts of our legacy business, including refreshments, wine kits and certain value wine brands. It is these areas that have contributed to the need to take the impairment charge" 3) corporate governance is weak 4) fastest growing segment and higher margin segment in alcohol is spirits, which STZ is not heavily exposed to - beer for them was +3% in the Q and wine 2% - this is a common trend. In fact, STZ's spirits (Svedka mainly) was terrible in the Q, showing the weakness of its spirits exposure. 5) input costs remain in question with the great freeze that just went across. hopefully they got all their grapes for the year already done (had 65% at end of Q2) - notice how GPM was down for them y/y in Q2, but because beer is higher op margin that was up y/y 6) that acquisition I was surprised went thru DOJ. I mean technically BUD doesn't own any US Crown and so DOJ doesn't care as STZ owns very little beer exposure but this was an unexpected event. 7) debt and goodwill are very very high, creating a stretched balance sheet. 8) shares are factoring in the acquisition -

    Trust me - would love to root for this company as I see it around me constantly with living just 45 minutes away from company's headquarters and Corona being one of my favorite summer beers. This was a wine company that became a beer company overnight with a side wine company. Wine was 90% of revenue and low profits and now beer will represent the majority of profits. I'm allowed to be wrong on the price as I cannot dictate it. The important part is to outline the pros and cons for the companies listed. Hopefully it provided a different view for you.
    Dec 19 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Foods: This Turnaround Is For Real [View article]
    Been a past author on DMND - thought this was pretty good. Kudos and good luck.
    Sep 29 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond In The Rough: Part III - Post Earnings [View article]
    Wish I could - can no longer comment on really anything here. Would love to publish things on some of the names I used to watch but legally cannot. Sorry to disappoint and thanks for the read.
    Sep 9 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond In The Rough: Part III - Post Earnings [View article]
    the rally isn't about the walnuts bus. its about strengthening the 3 brands that mean something. Those brands carry higher margins = higher fcf = stronger business. I agree it is shorts covering for the most part. Getting out of the legal issues though is a good start.
    Aug 26 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond In The Rough: Part III - Post Earnings [View article]
    Anyone not believe in the turnaround yet? (still a bit to go but pieces are falling in place...)
    Aug 21 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Diamond Foods On The Road To Recovery? [View article]
    How is that bullying? Criticism, like compliments, is a part of being a published writer on here. I took my share of licks too. Not everyone will like your articles or agree with you. My point is... add value. Go beyond the news story. This is a summary of the news out there that are known to investors. The best articles I've read from other authors are the ones that go beyond news. Lay out their beliefs/opinions and leave the reader the opportunity to decide which side of the coin he/she is on in regards to a stock. Best example is Ashraf who does tech stocks for the most part.
    Aug 5 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Own Monster Beverage Shares [View article]
    Ha Chris, it's been a while! It is a small part but we will see. I don't disagree the whole Energy drink sector is tough to buy into, especially right now. I am a fan of 'consumer' be-ware personally as the whole notion of "don't have caffeine if you have heart issues" is common sense, but apparently we have to be babied now. I actually liked your article but did want to point out something on the flip side. Can't contribute anymore with being an equity research associate or else I would have been publishing more over the last 3 months
    Jun 16 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Diamond Foods On The Road To Recovery? [View article]
    I appreciate the article, but please tell me how this added value to SA? Only thing 'new' that you referenced was the GPM improvement. Like that you and I agree on the company but literally seems like all you did was try to get people to read a short summary of what is going on with the company.
    Jun 14 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Insider Selling Of Monster Beverage [View article]
    Oh no doubt- lots of volatility in the stock over the last few months. The real winners were the options players
    Jun 11 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Insider Selling Of Monster Beverage [View article]
    Just want to point out a line on page 4 of MNST's annual meeting:

    "So the main reason I can give you again, first off, that it was -- we had to sell shares in order to meet our tax commitments".

    This affirms this article and the point that I was making here. Shares rose from mid-40s to $62 since article published FYI. Congrats to longs.
    Jun 11 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Own These World's Leading Brands And Never Fear A Recession Again [View article]
    always love reading your articles, Chuck. Thank you for that.

    Question - if you look at all of your stocks, a good portion of them are consumer staples and all of them are your typical dividend aristocrat. You're still a buyer of these companies despite the run-up over the last 6 months with yields for them at historical low-points due to the price appreciation?
    Jun 6 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are McCormick's Spicy Multiples Justified? [View article]
    Still think these dividend payers are slightly above fair value. I'd probably put MKC at roughly fair value at this level. Still wouldn't buy here at 20.5x trailing earnings and the increasing level of ev/ebitda. Despite Cramer being mad sometimes that whole "2x PEG or higher" is a good rule to have too. I follow it depending on the company.

    If it pulls back another couple of points to around 65, I may put in a 1/4 position that I normally would. Still would be expensive. I think there are better plays out there in terms of return, but less risk. You?
    Jun 5 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
298 Comments
94 Likes