Jim Hawthorne

2009 Economic Forecasts Ignore Demographic Shift

Outstanding analytical work, Steve! Thanks for yet another very useful article!
While there just might be enough poop in the stimulus package/inflation combination to spark a modest 1Q 'hope' rally, the search for any significant economic drivers that could function as spark-plugs has eluded me.
I also detect a very clear general bearish message amongst my own grey-bearded demographic insofar as there will be no incentive to plunge back into the market until a clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows is established.
The traders I know are all pretty much content to sit it out with the attitude that you can make up for missed opportunities quicker than you can make up for lost dollars! Risk-aversion is extremely high, it seems to me.
So, just as there are no obvious market fundamentals to lead the market into a sustained rally, so too there is a deeply entrenched negative market sentiment that creates its own inertia.
The flexible and nimble traders will be the only ones smiling this year!