Jim Hawthorne

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Wow! Nobody was expecting GOOD news today, but your excellent post this morning has PANIC written all over it, Rachael! Watching the Big Banks, Central Banks, Insurers, and Governments these days is like watching old 'Keystone Cops' clips... but in dead silence and with nobody laughing.....

Insanity truly does consist of doing the same old things over and over again while hoping, praying and expecting a different outcome...

Fundamentals, Valuations and Technicals Stress Need for Patience

Thanks for an exceptionally well-researched and well-balanced analysis, Chris!

In the absence of fundamental improvements, we have a market driven by government interventions, rumor and rapid sector shifts in which nothing offers much stability over anything but short time frames.

Technically, intra-day, daily, weekly, and monthly charts all appear equally 'fugly', and while we wait for some kind of seismic shift, we see a frothy sea of 'pop and drop' mini-rallies that can rip your face off if you're caught leaning the wrong way. It is indeed a trader's market, and this is to be expected when prices are mired so far below 200-day MA's with downside risk far from diminishing.

The picture you paint is not encouraging, but it is certainly realistic!

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

So history repeats and it's back to the well for AIG!
Is this to be a truly bi-partisan bailout for the long-suffering taxpayer to swallow? Obama has to out-spend Bush? Is there no end in sight?

Why is failure not an option for this turkey?

Fear and Greed: Premise for Capitulation and Overreaction

Did I read you correctly? You seem to be saying that once the banking system stabilizes and the banks start lending again, we'll be okay???

In other words, let's just hope and pray that we can somehow re-inflate the bubble???

Look, it was 'over-easy' credit, a delusional perception of endless money supply, and arcane vehicles that masked risk that got us into this mess in the first place!

Make no mistake! Short sellers DID NOT 'nearly ruin the economy'! Rather, the collusion of Wall Street Banks, the Fed Reserve and gross negligence by the rating agencies and lack of due diligence and oversight laid the final straws on the back of a very sick and ailing economy, and presented a target-rich environment for short-sellers.

This blaming of the short sellers is ridiculous! If you think for one minute that a short selling ban will save the markets, you'd best take a peek at the Shanghai exchange's performance over the past year! They have banned short-selling as a general rule, and it has failed miserably!

Short sellers have to eventually cover by buying; this is the buying action that induces confidence and leads other buyers into the markets! Eliminating short-sellers results in eliminating a unique class of 'captive buyers', and it is the short-squeeze at the bottom that ignites a great upturn!

In the meantime, what we have to recognize is the seismic shift that is occurring before our eyes. Investment opportunities abound where there is sound economic growth based on increased production and expanding markets, NOT simply loose credit and expanding debt!

Now, we have the ludicrous situation of the arsonists (Hank, Ben, and company) presenting us with the solution and posing as the firemen!

Be nimble, my friends, and conserve your capital! Above all, look for opportunities elsewhere than where you've found them in the past!