Jim McCraigh

Jim McCraigh
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Jim McCraigh
Like your point here. Will be looking for future articles!
Right Colin,
You have to question the inflation number cited here.
Dana, You are right on. This is not a political issue. Politicizing it will be the death of us. Not only will the Fed's hands be tied if they ever try to raise rates to slow inflation, rising interests will kill the bond market as well. Bond prices will collapse as well. Patrick MontesDeOca posted on this at http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ
Just saw a great interview with John Embry of Sprott Asset management by Patrick MontesDeOca on where gold prices might go from here at http://wp.me/p2esYO-l2
Good comment regarding gold prices in other currencies. Many US investors seem to think in terms of the US only. Yes, there is a huge world out there. Traders who understand this will make the most money. Gold may well be overdue for a dip here which might well be that last chance to get in for a while. See Watch Out For A Gold Pullback Here at http://seekingalpha.co...
Soon, those older Japanese folks will begin to retire and draw down their savings (often held in gov't bonds) thereby forcing Japan to seek outside buyers for their bonds. It is a demographic time bomb that will help fuel gold's rise. See http://wp.me/p2esYO-kF
Good analysis. For now, trading as we have in the past will work. But, as the Fed and other print themselves and us into a corner, endless QE will take its toll on the dollar. Once investors wise up and see that the dollar is becoming toast, gold will become an emotional/fear trade and rise significantly in value. Never in the course of human history has this much debt been incurred and money printed as the last 5 years. It will not take hyperinflation to get there, just half of the rates we saw in the seventies and eighties. Bonds will craters and equities will be sold off to cover bond losses. See more at http://wp.me/p2esYO-3X
Got to agree with you Steven! When Bernanke unleashed the junkyard dog of unlimited QE (quantitative easing) on us, he backed himself into a corner. Once true inflation (not manufactured gov't CPI numbers) rears its ugly head--- and it will with boundless money printing, the Fed won't be able to raise rates without devaluing all those Treasuries they they will buy. Even high yield bonds won't be safe. We posted on what to do before this happens at http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ
I have to agree with both GoldBoy and the author on this. The reason?The Gold/Silver ratio has been way off for too long now. Even a return to the mean would mean a huge move for silver relative to gold. I posted Why I'm Dumping Gold Today at http://seekingalpha.co...
At this point, bonds are a bad bet for any folks, particularly "older" ones. The Fed will loose control soon (perhaps they already have with QE3) and rates will rise and destroy the bond market, which is much larger than the equities market.. We posted on this recently at: http://wp.me/p2esYO-bh
nycabman I call what you are doing "trading around a position". This is when an investor holds a core position and then buys and sells as short term price action dictates. I suggest anyone employing this strategy limit plays to a fixed percentage of their portfolio and use trailing stop loss orders to mitigate any bad choices.
Right on Manuel, there is a war on savers. The Fed's policies are rewarding the rich and crushing the poor and middle class. Read "Purse Snatch Economics" at http://wp.me/p2esYO-i9
To get the full picture on what's driving the price of gold, we must look past Europe and the US to Asia... Japan in particular. We posted on this today at http://wp.me/p2esYO-kF
Danwslee, I am not sure that numbers are available as the bank would consider that type of information proprietary. On the other hand, the size of JP Morgan’s position has been described ancedotally as "massive" and supposedly hedged with forward sales of the mining companies. Back in the day when I was in the banking business, my superiors would have never engaged in such foolishness with other people's money and fired me for doing anything remotely like that.
Thanks for your comment. Although I did not recommend that anyone buy iShares Silver Trust (SLV) , I did suggest that I am buying more silver. That may take a variety of forms including bullion.
Like your article... and agree with your basic premise. We are already have long positions in a couple of miners and accumulating a short position on the S&P. But still holding on to our short of the euro, as we believe it has a way to go yet, perhaps to the $1.15 level. In terms of Iran and precious metals prices, see http://wp.me/p2esYO-iV
The key to Romney's effectiveness will partially depend on whether or not the GOP gets control of both the House and Senate. Even if they do, he can't cut spending right away, the national debt will still increase unless he cuts spending by 40% overnight. The resulting debt will still rise and take interest rates up with it and bond prices down. We posted on what happens to gold if bond prices collapse at: http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ
I'm thinking buy the rumor and sell the news... We anticipate Uncle Ben will disappoint tomorrow. It may well be a good day to buy if there is a dip. We posted on gold's near term moves at http://wp.me/p2esYO-j6
If one doesn't take physical possession of their gold or silver, investors can avoid these problems by buying and storing larger bars that have been held only within the LBMA (the London Bullion Market) vault system. If it is removed from the vaults and stored outside of their chain of custody, it will have to be re-assayed before it can be returned to the LBMA system. By buying bullion from an LBMA member dealer and storing it in an LBMA recognized vault, you will avoid the need of re-assaying and help protect yourself from problems. Charles Vollum has an interesting take on saving in gold at http://wp.me/p2esYO-fl
Some clarity in long term gold prices is shaping up--- in our opinion... India's gold buying has perked up again with the beginnings of festival season buying, but may be weaker than last year as gold is now more expensive in terms of the rupee. We are counting on China to pass India this year as they continue to buy huge tonnage thru Hong Kong. Another driver will be rising interest rates... see post on bond bubble at http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ
Graham, You are right--- The only way to buy silver is either bullion or PSLV. Silver is on the march... Eric Parnell posted on this recently http://wp.me/p2esYO-iv
Another play worth looking at is Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) in terms of a royalty company. Helps get around the increasing costs involved in operating a mining company. This week's move in gold and silver are just the beginnings of a big move up. We posted on this at http://wp.me/p2esYO-j6
Unfortunately I have to agree with ryanclarke. It seems our government has decided that lying to us is good for the economy. The whole idea over "over 4 million jobs created" is a complete twisting of the truth.Low interest rates are another issue, designed to help pay the interest on the national debt at the expense of the folks who are getting crushed in the name of "facilitating lending". We posted on what I call "purse snatch" economics at http://wp.me/p2esYO-i9
Shaun... I agree. It is government manipulation that is killing capital and it's orderly deployment. Not only that, it is killing the retirees and soon to be retirees in the US. I call it "purse snatch economics". We posted on this recently ay http://wp.me/p2esYO-i9
You have it right... gold isn't necessarily rising, but paper currencies weakening. Watch for gold to become "more expensive" as the yen falls in the next year. Also proof of this is the price of gold in euros, near an all time high. We posted on paper currencies recently at A Matter of Trust in Paper Currency http://wp.me/p2esYO-dI
winningtrader you are on the right track. There WILL be more money printing. This is a political reality not only in the US but the EU as well. As time goes on I also expect Japan to print. In addition, we also expect China to effectively devalue against the dollar. The other big issue is that in this environment of endless printing of money, bonds will fall in value. This will be good for both gold and silver. We posted on this at http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ
I'm not sure what will eventually drive the prices of gold and silver up, but there are many possible causes waiting in the wings. We posted on the fact that the gold trade has 10 times as much upside as downside at http://wp.me/p2esYO-cX
fishfryer is right on about the crumbling. We are in the midst of a bond bubble that will begin to unravel as money printing goes on unchecked. As interest rates rise, gold and silver will too. We posted on this at http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ
Credit rating agencies are seemingly almost always a day late and a dollar short. What TWO has in interest rate risk which can be mitigated by hedging. I'm not going to worry about it.
I think what you are saying is that the problem is beyond fixing. Romney, nor anyone else can stop this "battleship" called the national debt from running into the dock. The fear trade will kick in when investors wake up and see that the risk of owning US bonds and the risk of principal loss is the highest in recent history…We posted on this at: http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ recently.
Good article...This whole thing seems to be playing out much more slowly that most thought, but WILL play out to the end eventually. The risk of owning US bonds and the risk of principal loss is the highest in recent history…We posted on this at: http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ if you want to check it out.
Good point Frank, on the definition of a "black swan" requiring an element of surprise. The real point is that whatever we call it it will be an economic catastrophe. The risk of owning US bonds and the risk of principal loss is the highest in recent history…we posted on this recently at http://wp.me/p2esYO-iJ