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Jim Pyke

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  • Dark Clouds Ahead For SolarCity [View article]
    Solar power is at retail rate parity in Hawaii and for top two tiers of electricity consumption in California, both do not require any subsidies to be economic. You do need to find somewhere to put in Hawaii though, which is tougher.
    Sep 30 01:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Sun Eventually Set On SolarCity? [View article]
    There are some other things that I mentioned too. I don't necessarily think of it as being competent or not but rather they've turned over guys so there is much less continuity, but perhaps you can interpret it that way. SCTY does have Elon Musk though. SCTY has also done a much better job of communicating their approach/strategies/brand than RSOL - no question there. I would watch for Vivint to IPO and see how they do. Blackstone paid $2 billion for them in the Fall so they have clear expectations of opportunity. Perhaps 18 months to 2 years?
    Jul 22 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Sun Eventually Set On SolarCity? [View article]
    RSOL is one of the players closer to the top in terms of market share on the residential side. I know they've had some management turnover in the past couple years. I would suspect growth considerations as you've mentioned. They seem to be more oriented as an EPC firm, which will take a lower multiple. I'm not as familiar with their set up for facilitating financing leases. As PlanetThoughts noted, SCTY has signed up many meaningful partnerships on both customer and fund set up.
    Jul 22 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Sun Eventually Set On SolarCity? [View article]
    There are numerous challengers to SCTY, including Vivint as a very direct competitor. There are also a range of smaller companies and installers that provide some of the services. In general, the market is extremely fragmented. I believe SCTY is still sub 20% with no one else much above 5%. So they are a market leader in a very fragmented space.
    Jul 22 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Sun Eventually Set On SolarCity? [View article]
    The article is focused on their offerings and not their "business model." That was intentional.

    Your comment also contains a significant inaccuracy around the $500 million of funding from Goldman. The line around Goldman Sachs is about their funding of a vehicle to own solar assets, this is not a direct equity investment in SCTY as your statement seems to imply. These funding vehicles are critical for solar pv since they enable the monetization of the tax benefits to investors who have tax liabilities. Without them, the industry would not be viable. These funds should not be confused with investments in the SCTY business that can be used for corporate purposes (marketing, general & admin, construction of new PV assets that then sold to the funding vehicles). SCTY themselves have no appetite for these tax benefits. The funding vehicles typically come from banks who arrange the funding to firms like GOOG and other highly profitable companies. There is a clear analogue in MidAmerican's (read Berkshire Hathaway's) acquisition of larger scale solar PV plants to help manage their tax liabilities.

    When you start a comment with an ad hominem attack, you simply diminish your own credibility. When you then make factual mistakes, you finish it off.
    Jul 22 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Vanguard Dividend Stock ETFs [View article]
    I don't know of any sites off the top of my head; however, I would think they exist.
    Jul 3 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Diversification With Vanguard Small Cap ETFs [View article]
    My surprise is more around the correlations. Outperformance has been widely documented. bad sentence ordering in my last comment.
    Jul 2 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Diversification With Vanguard Small Cap ETFs [View article]
    The correlations are extremely high. Return performance will vary over time. Long term trend is often shown that small caps have better returns. It is somewhat surprising.
    Jul 2 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PriceSmart: Counting On Colombia [View article]
    Thanks for the compliments. It is definitely an interesting opportunity. You've been following it longer than I have. In the big picture, the upside potential seems huge, despite the near term valuation questions.
    Jun 17 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Threat Of Rising Interest Rates A Reason To Avoid Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    I'm not sure this answers your question, which I think is along of the lines of "if I believe that the stock is going to decline in value, should I not also sell some/all of my position in addition to not just buying more through a DRIP or other mechanism"

    In theory the answer is yes you probably should. In cross's example of the portfolio, a 1% decline is $3000 which is vastly larger than the cash raised from discontinuing the DRIP. The wrinkle to me is taxes - depends on how much unrealized gain you have on the portfolio. Selling would trigger taxes which impacts your after tax return. Then there is a possibility that you are not correct about the declines and miss out on gains and then have to decide when you re-enter the market. The only reason portfolio size matters is around transaction costs would also make the benefits worse. I also think time horizon for investing is another important consideration as well.
    Jun 17 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle: A Long-Term Gem [View article]
    Thanks - they do have pretty impressive margins so perhaps it is a bit of concern. But even still if the margins slipped a little the capital productivity measures would still be really good.
    Jun 16 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Vanguard Dividend Stock ETFs [View article]
    Thanks dataman2, I think they try with some formulaic approaches. Having reviewed the holdings of the different ETFs, some appear to go straight down the fairway looking for good yields and others seem to focus on additional aspects and end up with more eclectic holdings. I believe SDY's largest holding is PBI and then T. VIG as noted leads with consumer products - KO, PEP, PG and then a pretty familiar list including CVX, MCD, and others. Is there a list somewhere of dividend growth stocks that anyone has assembled or created a ranking for?
    Jun 16 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckle: A Long-Term Gem [View article]
    Any thoughts on the high short interest in BKE?
    Jun 15 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using DuPont Analysis to Compare Coke and Pepsi [View article]
    Great to see that this article is still getting hits after over two years.
    Jun 15 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Utilities For Dividends, Part 2 [View article]
    Good point, I glossed over that. Hurdle rate is basically saying there is a certain level of return you should get based on the risks you are taking. This is simply applying the capital asset pricing model. If you ascribe to efficient markets, it basically says that the only risks you get compensated for are market risks and that alpha doesn't really exist. Different people ascribe to this belief to varying degrees. Beta is a measure of the level of market risk assigned to a stock (or any other security). Here is another one of my articles with a more detailed description:

    I like your idea of applying earnings growth - one can then think of dividend growth as having two components - one is the underlying earnings growth and the other is the payout ratio. One can then say well are they growing the dividend by raising the payout ratio (less sustainable) or by actually growing earnings (and perhaps even allowing the payout ratio to decline). This would be a better scenario.

    Thanks for reading my articles.
    May 28 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment