Solar Companies Will Continue Weakness Through October [View article]
I'm not sure they would. There were small and short lived bumps from the findings around anti-competitive practices. Taiwan companies were the larger beneficiaries. Solar module manufacturing is an extremely challenged industry. Over-capacity, too many participants, and everyone continues to improve. There is not enough thinning of the herd yet despite Solyndra, Abound, and Evergreen headlines. The article itself has no actionable insight. Not sure that four digits of precision are needed either.
Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
You're correct on this one. I remember seeing a good article that covered that issue on here. I'll see if I can locate it and add a link. However there are some risk in terms of how expenses are handled.. Here is a link to the prospectus.
The amount of gold represented by the Shares will continue to be reduced during the life of the Trust due to the sales of gold necessary to pay the Trust’s expenses irrespective of whether the trading price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold. Each outstanding Share represents a fractional, undivided interest in the gold held by the Trust. The Trust does not generate any income and regularly sells gold to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of gold represented by each Share has gradually declined over time. This is also true with respect to Shares that are issued in exchange for additional deposits of gold into the Trust, as the amount of gold required to create Shares proportionately reflects the amount of gold represented by the Shares outstanding at the time of creation. Assuming a constant gold price, the trading price of the Shares is expected to gradually decline relative to the price of gold as the amount of gold represented by the Shares gradually declines. Investors should be aware that the gradual decline in the amount of gold represented by the Shares will occur regardless of whether the trading price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold. The estimated ordinary operating expenses of the Trust, which accrue daily commencing after the first day of trading of the Shares, are described in the Trust’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, incorporated herein by reference.
Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
I agree that it is an ongoing consideration. To invest in the miner, one of the starting points is view on the underlying commodity, but it requires additional analysis beyond that. Given the commodity nature of it, cost structure of the individual miner at its specific mines should give insight to how much it can benefit from changes in prices - assuming that you also have a good understanding of how they hedge their production.
Frontier Communications: Will The Rally Last? [View article]
Rich, Thanks for the info. I was actually trying to respond to Norman, since he had listed all 5 big US telecoms. Still trying to get the comment nesting correct. However, your experience and perspectives are interesting. I think there is actually a rich discussion that would benefit a lot of people around how people tactically think about their positions and assembling and divesting positions. I try to think very carefully about the cost of managing my portfolio. Best regards and thank you again, Jim
Gold Showdown: Mining Stocks Vs. GLD [View article]
One would expect some mining companies to be more leveraged to the price of gold based on numerous factors, including cost structure and hedging policies. One issue is that you're also taking on company specific risk with a mining stock - poor management, other issues.
If you are betting on gold prices rising more than market expectations, the best place to look would be marginal gold miners (e.g., ones with relatively high cost structures) since they benefit the most from rising prices of gold. Conversely, they suffer the most when prices drop. I wrote my first article for seeking alpha on this topic.
Johnson & Johnson: An Overvalued Dividend Stock? [View article]
Thanks for the note and reading my articles. Track records are good, but things can always change. The pressure is on for JNJ to meet their earnings. It was also interesting to see the large premium shift to the market. Clearly another lense would be to try and make adjustments for risk and growth.
Frontier Communications: Will The Rally Last? [View article]
I find it hard to believe there is significant profit margin in reselling wireless services. However, it is probably something incremental - stuffing bills with leaflets possibly or offering service during customer calls should be pretty low cost.
Small-Cap ETFs: Seeking Better Returns, Not Diversification [View article]
Diversification refers to volatility diversification where the goal is to reduce the volatility of your portfolio. Small caps have such high correlations to the broader market that they do not help reduce portfolio volatility and smooth performance. The only reason to consider small caps is what you point out that they seem to often have better returns, but that is with an increase in volatility.
Wondering if this recent run up is real or not. I've been very negative on FTR for many of the reasons people have listed. Need to go back to see the subscriber counts and underlying operating metrics. I would be very skeptical of this company.
Why Did Warren Buffett Sell Johnson & Johnson? [View article]
This is pretty off. If you look at your data - that CAGR is pretty front loaded. JNJ's more recent track record is pretty flat. Even your data shows it in the change from 20.60 to 20.90, which is around 1% growth and 20.90 to 21.92 is just under 5% growth, substantially below the longer run average. This is why it is important to be careful with long run trends. From my analysis, using SEC filing information, you can see book equity at $60.6 billion overall for Q2 2012 and $59.9 billion for Q1 2010 - that is not meaningful growth.
ConocoPhillips: Hoping For Growth, Fearing A Cut [View article]
Solar Companies Will Continue Weakness Through October [View article]
Intel Could Be The Next Dow Dog [View article]
Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
http://bit.ly/M37hWN
Some additional risks:
The amount of gold represented by the Shares will continue to be reduced during the life of the Trust
due to the sales of gold necessary to pay the Trust’s expenses irrespective of whether the trading
price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold.
Each outstanding Share represents a fractional, undivided interest in the gold held by the Trust. The Trust does
not generate any income and regularly sells gold to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of
gold represented by each Share has gradually declined over time. This is also true with respect to Shares that
are issued in exchange for additional deposits of gold into the Trust, as the amount of gold required to create
Shares proportionately reflects the amount of gold represented by the Shares outstanding at the time of
creation. Assuming a constant gold price, the trading price of the Shares is expected to gradually decline
relative to the price of gold as the amount of gold represented by the Shares gradually declines.
Investors should be aware that the gradual decline in the amount of gold represented by the Shares will occur
regardless of whether the trading price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold.
The estimated ordinary operating expenses of the Trust, which accrue daily commencing after the first day of
trading of the Shares, are described in the Trust’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, incorporated herein by
reference.
Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
Frontier Communications: Will The Rally Last? [View article]
Thanks for the info. I was actually trying to respond to Norman, since he had listed all 5 big US telecoms. Still trying to get the comment nesting correct. However, your experience and perspectives are interesting. I think there is actually a rich discussion that would benefit a lot of people around how people tactically think about their positions and assembling and divesting positions. I try to think very carefully about the cost of managing my portfolio.
Best regards and thank you again,
Jim
Frontier Communications: Will The Rally Last? [View article]
Jim
Gold Showdown: Mining Stocks Vs. GLD [View article]
If you are betting on gold prices rising more than market expectations, the best place to look would be marginal gold miners (e.g., ones with relatively high cost structures) since they benefit the most from rising prices of gold. Conversely, they suffer the most when prices drop. I wrote my first article for seeking alpha on this topic.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Johnson & Johnson: An Overvalued Dividend Stock? [View article]
Frontier Communications: Will The Rally Last? [View article]
Small-Cap ETFs: Seeking Better Returns, Not Diversification [View article]
Small-Cap ETFs: Seeking Better Returns, Not Diversification [View article]
How Safe Is Frontier's Dividend? [View article]
Why Did Warren Buffett Sell Johnson & Johnson? [View article]