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Jim Pyke

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  • Investment Opportunities In Downstream Oil [View article]
    Net cash would be reflected in the Enterprise Value, hence its inclusion. Note that HFC EV is less than its MC. So it was covered and continues with the theme that refineries strive for low to no leverage which is good given that they often struggle.
    Oct 15 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Opportunities In Downstream Oil [View article]
    Yeah, I'm not too fond of yahoo for that regard. Some items, I just manually check and calculate - EV/EBITDA. You're right that CNBC might be a better source.
    Oct 15 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: A Surging Dividend, But Will It Last? [View article]
    My only thoughts would be that if XOM catches AAPL in market capitalization, a large portion would be a collapse in AAPL which would require some product issue trigger. AAPL doesn't have an inflated P/E, but is dependent on strong growth from a handful of products. It also raises the question of when AAPL hits market saturation.
    Oct 14 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: The Benefits Of Dividend Reinvestment [View article]
    My point is more about the spread. At some point you take the treasury, so as treasury yields go up investors should demand something more on the dividend yield. Perhaps to you - it might need a 3% yield on the stock with 5% on the treasury or something more. Hence as you go back with higher treasuries, dividend yields were also higher than they are today.
    Oct 13 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: The Benefits Of Dividend Reinvestment [View article]
    Actually, the yields have gone above 5%, albeit not frequently in the last 20 years. In early 1992, the yield hit 5.3% on the Q1 ex-dividend date. It is also possible that during various dips throughout the year, the yield spiked. Think fall 2008 and spring 2009 and post 9/11.

    However, going back further, the yield was consistently above 5% for the late 70s through most of the 80s.

    A key observation is that dividend stock yield tends to track against a 10 year treasury. As 10 year treasury yields rise and fall, investors demand relatively higher or lower dividend yields. If I can get 5% on the treasury bond, would I be happy with 5.5% on the stock? (balance of income risk, inflation concerns, and perspectives on capital appreciation). However, in todays super low interest rate environment, a 3.5% dividend yield is pretty attractive since the 10 year is just 1.7%.
    Oct 13 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: The Benefits Of Dividend Reinvestment [View article]
    For the benefit of everyone. My templates use an estimated date after the ex-dividend date to align with the payment date of the dividend. I then use the closing price on that date. While not perfect, it does make a reasonable adjustment. Inconsistencies should be averaged out.
    Oct 13 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Strong Dividend Growth Expected To Continue [View article]
    Good thoughts for an article. I took a look at CVX over time on dividend reinvestment to look at the return uplift.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    It should be noted that this benefits from survivorship bias and history is no indication of future performance. It is illustrative of slow and patient investing.
    Oct 11 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Strong Dividend Growth Expected To Continue [View article]
    $3.60 is the current annualization of the most recent quarter- $0.90 - I would expect to see an increase over the next year. Good luck with your investing.
    Oct 8 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Hoping For Growth, Fearing A Cut [View article]
    This is a fair point, but I would stick with the technical read. Investors at this point have the decision to keep one or the other or both. The investment decisions are now independent of each other. An investor could choose to sell the PSX shares if they do not believe in the refining business long term and not benefit from the dividend. The first PSX ex-dividend date is substantially after the spin-off, even if it was announced prior or concurrent with the spin-off.

    If someone chose to keep both stocks based on independent assessments of both stocks, then the economic impact you describe is correct. However, an investor should not say hey, that PSX dividend is effectively growing my COP dividend. Being long or short COP has to be based on only on COP specific activity and prospects alone.
    Oct 2 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Hoping For Growth, Fearing A Cut [View article]
    You're right on that, I remember checking it in the 10-Q, not sure how I left it out. I've submitted a correction.
    Oct 2 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Companies Will Continue Weakness Through October [View article]
    I'm not sure they would. There were small and short lived bumps from the findings around anti-competitive practices. Taiwan companies were the larger beneficiaries. Solar module manufacturing is an extremely challenged industry. Over-capacity, too many participants, and everyone continues to improve. There is not enough thinning of the herd yet despite Solyndra, Abound, and Evergreen headlines. The article itself has no actionable insight. Not sure that four digits of precision are needed either.
    Sep 24 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Could Be The Next Dow Dog [View article]
    Dogs of the Dow theory is generally discredited. Limiting oneself to the DJIA is artificial as well. However, interesting perspectives on INTC.
    Sep 17 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
    You're correct on this one. I remember seeing a good article that covered that issue on here. I'll see if I can locate it and add a link. However there are some risk in terms of how expenses are handled.. Here is a link to the prospectus.

    http://bit.ly/M37hWN

    Some additional risks:

    The amount of gold represented by the Shares will continue to be reduced during the life of the Trust
    due to the sales of gold necessary to pay the Trust’s expenses irrespective of whether the trading
    price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold.
    Each outstanding Share represents a fractional, undivided interest in the gold held by the Trust. The Trust does
    not generate any income and regularly sells gold to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of
    gold represented by each Share has gradually declined over time. This is also true with respect to Shares that
    are issued in exchange for additional deposits of gold into the Trust, as the amount of gold required to create
    Shares proportionately reflects the amount of gold represented by the Shares outstanding at the time of
    creation. Assuming a constant gold price, the trading price of the Shares is expected to gradually decline
    relative to the price of gold as the amount of gold represented by the Shares gradually declines.
    Investors should be aware that the gradual decline in the amount of gold represented by the Shares will occur
    regardless of whether the trading price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold.
    The estimated ordinary operating expenses of the Trust, which accrue daily commencing after the first day of
    trading of the Shares, are described in the Trust’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, incorporated herein by
    reference.
    Sep 17 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
    You're correct. Derivatives are another approach that could create good exposure; however, they are riskier. Thanks for adding to the discussion.
    Sep 17 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Gold: Miners Or Metal? [View article]
    I agree that it is an ongoing consideration. To invest in the miner, one of the starting points is view on the underlying commodity, but it requires additional analysis beyond that. Given the commodity nature of it, cost structure of the individual miner at its specific mines should give insight to how much it can benefit from changes in prices - assuming that you also have a good understanding of how they hedge their production.
    Sep 17 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
328 Comments
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