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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/6

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Wednesday, May 6th, 2015

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.18% and European stocks are up +0.74% ahead of this morning's U.S. Apr ADP employment change that may gauge whether the U.S. economy recovered from a winter slowdown. European stocks also received a boost after the Eurozone Apr Markit composite PMI was revised higher by +0.4 to 53.9 from the originally reported 53.5. The 10-year Greek bond yield rose to a 3-session high of 11.25% after Greek President Tsipras blamed international creditors for a failure to end an impasse in his country's bailout talks. The next meeting of European finance ministers is on Monday, May 11 to discuss Greece's debt situation and a breakdown of talks then may prompt the ECB to tighten collateral rules on Greek debt. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.41%, China -1.62%, Taiwan -0.02%, Australia -2.31%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea -1.23%, India -2.63%.

    Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM15 +2.33%) is up +2.37% at a 4-3/4 month high and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +1.19%) is up +1.11% at a 5-3/4 month high on expectations that today's EIA data will show crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -580,000 bbl. Metals prices are lower. Jun gold (GCM15 -0.28%)is down -0.42%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.72%) is down -0.73%. Agriculture prices are higher.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.27%) is down -0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.43%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07%.

    Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.15%) are down -3.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 month low on carry-over weakness from the plunge in German bund prices to a 4-month low.

    According to two people familiar with the matter, the ECB will discuss today whether to raise discounts on the collateral Greek banks pledge in exchange for emergency funding as well as how much more Emergency Liquidity Assistance to offer Greek banks.

    Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota said "softening" of the U.S. economy in Q1 "is a matter for some concern" and underscores his view that the Fed should not raise rates until 2016.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Key U.S. reports today include: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -2.3% with purchase sub-index unch and refi sub-index -3.7%), (2) Apr ADP employment (expected +200,000 after March's +189,000), (3) Q1 non-farm productivity (expected -1.9% after Q4's -2.2%) and Q1 unit labor costs (expected +4.5% after Q4's +4.1%), (4) comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on topics in finance, governance, and society on a panel discussion at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference in Washington, D.C., (5) Kansas City Fed President Esther George's speech on "Credit Markets: Booms, Busts and Distortions" on a panel discussion at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference in Washington, D.C., (6) Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Baton Rouge Rotary, and (7) the Treasury's announcement of the May 12-14 sale of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities.

    There are 17 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Marathon Oil (consensus $-0.45), Whole Foods (0.43), MetLife (1.41), TripAdvisor (0.55), Transocean (0.59).

    U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Tallgrass Energy (Pending:TEGP), Commercial Credit (Pending:CCR), Collegium Pharmaceutical (Pending:COLL), aTyr Pharma (Pending:LIFE), Klox Technologies (Pending:KLOX), HTG Molecular Diagnostics (Pending:HTGM), Forest City Enterprises (FCE/A).

    Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Internet & Television Expo on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Industrial and Construction Conference on Tue-Wed, Baird Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Power & Electricity World Asia 2015 on Wed, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Energy Conference on Wed, Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, ICI General Membership Meeting on Wed-Thu, Citi Car of the Future Conference on Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Oil & Gas Conference on Thu, and RBC Capital Markets Mobile & Cloud Networking Investor Day on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Convergys (CVG -0.74%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 40 cents

    News Corp. (NWSA -0.93%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 5 cents, less than consensus of 7 cents.

    CenturyLink (CTL -1.42%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, above consensus of 59 cents.

    Trinseo (TSE -2.02%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 80 cents, below consensus of 81 cents.

    Team Health (TMH -1.67%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, better than consensus of 60 cents.

    Community Health (CYH -3.63%) reported Q1 EPS of 79 cents, above consensus of 66 cents, but Q1 revenue of $4.911 billion was below consensus of $5.010 billion

    Frontier Communications (FTR -1.89%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 2 cents, half as much as consensus of 4 cents.

    Andersons (ANDE -0.83%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, higher than consensus of 34 cents, but Q1 revenue of $950 million was less than consensus of $962.05 million.

    Allstate (ALL +0.26%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.46, above consensus of $1.44.

    Herbalife (HLF -4.71%) jumped 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.29, higher than consensus of $1.01, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS outlook to $4.30-$4.60, better than consensus of $4.22.

    Groupon (GRPN -2.84%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 3 cents, better than consensus of 1 cent, although Q1 revenue of $750.4 million was less than consensus of $812.19 million.

    Electronic Arts (EA -0.25%) climbed nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, well above consensus of 25 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $2.75, better than consensus of $2.64.

    Mylan (MYL -0.22%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, above consensus of 69 cents, but Q1 revenue of $1.87 billion was below consensus of $2.06 billion.

    AmSurg (AMSG -2.42%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 62 cents, higher than consensus of 57 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS outlook to $3.31-$3.39 from $3.24-$3.32, above consensus of $3.26.

    Fiserv (FISV -1.45%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 89 cents, better than consensus of 86 cents, although Q1 revenue of $1.28 billion was below consensus of $1.29 billion.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.24%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.18%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.18%, Dow Jones -0.79%, Nasdaq -1.63%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on expectations for a downward revision in Q1 GDP due to the much wider-than-expected U.S. March trade deficit report of -$51.4 billion. In addition, the broad market was dragged down by weakness in semiconductor and biotechnology stocks.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.15%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks at a fresh 1-1/2 month low. Tuesday's closes: TYM5 -11.00, FVM5 -7.00. June T-bonds on Tuesday slid to a new 1-1/2 month low due to the unexpected increase in the Apr ISM non-manufacturing index to a 5-month high and carry-over weakness from a slump in German bund prices to a 3-1/4 month low.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.27%) this morning is down -0.271 (-0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0048 (+0.43%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08 (-0.07%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.404 (-0.42%), EUR/USD +0.00385 (+0.35%), USD/JPY -0.26 (-0.22%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on expectations that an expected downward revision in Q1 GDP from the much wider-than-expected U.S. Mar trade deficit report of -$51.4 billion could delay a Fed rate hike. EUR/USD saw strength after the European Commission raised its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from Feb's estimate of 1.3%.

    Jun WTI crude oil (CLM15 +2.33%) this morning is up +$1.43 a barrel (+2.37%) at a 4-3/4 month high and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +1.19%) is up +0.0230 (+1.11%) at a 5-3/4 month high. Tuesday's closes: CLM5 +1.47 (+2.49%), RBM5 +0.0345 (+1.70%). Jun crude oil and gasoline closed higher on Monday with Jun crude at a 4-3/4 month high and Jun gasoline at a 5-1/4 month high as the market is hoping for Wednesday's EIA report to show the second weekly decline in Cushing crude oil inventories and on ideas that U.S. oil production may drop as well.

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/06/2015

    US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -2.3% with purchase sub-index unch and refi sub-index -3.7%.
     0815 ETApr ADP employment change expected +200,000, Mar +189,000.
     0830 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned May 12-14 in the Treasurys quarterly refunding.
     0830 ETQ1 non-farm productivity expected -1.9%, Q4 -2.2%. Q1 unit labor costs expected +4.5%, Q4 +4.1%.
     0915 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speak on topics in finance, governance, and society on a panel discussion at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference in Washington, D.C.
     1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
     1315 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on Credit Markets: Booms, Busts and Distortions on a panel discussion at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference in Washington, D.C.
     1330 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Baton Rouge Rotary.
    GER0355 ETRevised German Apr Markit services PMI, previous 54.4.
    EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Apr Markit composite PMI, previous 53.5.
     0500 ETEurozone Mar retail sales expected -0.7% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Feb -0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
    UK0430 ETUK Apr Markit/CIPS services PMI expected -0.4 to 58.5, Mar 58.9.
    JPN2135 ETJapan Apr Markit services PMI, Mar 48.4.
     n/aJapanese markets closed for National Holiday.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/06/2015

    CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB US3:30Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Occidental Petroleum CorpOXY USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.041
    Chesapeake Energy CorpCHK USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.036
    Spectra Energy CorpSE USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.426
    Motorola Solutions IncMSI US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.249
    DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.573
    Masco CorpMAS US8:00Investor DayY 2015 
    Motorola Solutions IncMSI US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Dun & Bradstreet Corp/TheDNB US8:00Annual General Meeting  
    Assurant IncAIZ US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Dominion Resources Inc/VAD US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    General Dynamics CorpGD US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    PepsiCo IncPEP US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Chesapeake Energy CorpCHK US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Allstate Corp/TheALL US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Philip Morris International IncPM US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Spectra Energy CorpSE US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Hess CorpHES US10:00Annual General Meeting  
    CSX CorpCSX US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Bank of America CorpBAC US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Occidental Petroleum CorpOXY US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Pioneer Natural Resources CoPXD US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Phillips 66PSX US10:00Annual General Meeting  
    ONEOK IncOKE US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Newfield Exploration CoNFX US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Devon Energy CorpDVN US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    FMC Technologies IncFTI US12:00Annual General Meeting  
    Hospira IncHSP US12:00Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Twenty-First Century Fox IncFOXA US16:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.391
    Twenty-First Century Fox IncFOXA US16:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015 
    TripAdvisor IncTRIP US16:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Whole Foods Market IncWFM US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015 
    Keurig Green Mountain IncGMCR US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015 
    Kimco Realty CorpKIM USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.352
    Marathon Oil CorpMRO USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2015-0.454
    Whole Foods Market IncWFM USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.426
    Transocean LtdRIG USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.586
    Keurig Green Mountain IncGMCR USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.049
    Prudential Financial IncPRU USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20152.391
    Essex Property Trust IncESS USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20152.251
    MetLife IncMET USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.414
    CF Industries Holdings IncCF USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20154.625
    TripAdvisor IncTRIP USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.551
    PulteGroup IncPHM US Annual General Meeting  
    Costco Wholesale CorpCOST US April 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015 
    Express Scripts Holding CoESRX US Annual General Meeting  
    Expeditors International of Washington IncEXPD US Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.485
    Gilead Sciences IncGILD US Annual General MeetingY 2015 
    Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN US Annual General Meeting  
    AMETEK IncAME US Annual General Meeting  
    United Rentals IncURI US Annual General Meeting  
    CONSOL Energy IncCNX US Annual General Meeting

    Tags: CVG, NWSA, CTL, TSE, TMH, CYH, FTR, ANDE, ALL, HLF, GRPN, EA, MYL, AMSG, FISV, LYB, OXY, CHK, SE, MSI, XRAY, MAS, DNB, AIZ, D, GD, PEP, NDAQ, PM, HES, CSX, IFF, BAC, PXD, PSX, OKE, NFX, DVN, FOXA, TRIP, WFM, GMCR, KIM, MRO, RIG, PRU, ESS, MET
    May 06 9:04 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Brigth Horizons Family Solutions - All Time High

    The Chart of the Day belongs to Bright Horizons Family Solutions (NYSE:BFAM). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the stocks with the best technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.

    Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. is engaged in providing employer-sponsored child care, early education and work/life solutions. Its employer-sponsored child care programs include child care and early education centers, infant/toddler/preschool care and education, full and part-time child care, kindergarten, school-age programs, summer camps and back-up care. Bright Horizons manages child care centers for corporations, hospitals, universities and government agencies The Company operates primarily in North America, Europe and India.

    (click to enlarge)

    The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

    Barchart technical indicators:

     

    • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
    • 5 new highs and up 3.47% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 65.21%
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 53.01
    • Recently traded at 53.95 with a 50 day moving average of 51.65


    Fundamental factors:

     

    • Market Cap $3.33 billion
    • P/E 36.52
    • Revenue expected to grow 7.40% this year and another 8.50% next year
    • Earnings estimated to increase 20.70% this year, an additional 16.60% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 19.40% for the next 5 years
    • Wall Street analysts issued 4 strong buy, 3 buy and 5 hold recommendations on the stock


    None of the regular technical trading strategies have been reliable on this stock so I would use a moving stop loss 10% below its recent high to protect your gains

    Tags: BFAM
    May 05 5:24 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The 5 Best Mid Caps

    One of the best ways to discover Mid Cap stocks that are breaking out to the upside is to use Barchart to sort the S&P 400 Mid Cap stock index for the stocks having the most frequent up days in the last month then use the Flipchart feature to review the charts.

    Today's Mid Cap breakout stocks are Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD), Polyone (NYSE:POL), Ciena (NYSE:CIEN), SEI Investments (NASDAQ:SEIC) and Carpenter Technology (NYSE:CRS).

    Steel Dynamics

    Barchart technical indicators:

     

    • 72% Barchart technical buy signals
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
    • 15 new highs and up 8.49% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 64.39%
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.75
    • Recently traded at 22.15 with a 50 day moving average of 20.95


    Polyone

    Barchart technical indicators:

     

    • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
    • 14 new highs and up 9.73% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 64.00%
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 40.04
    • Recently traded at 40.7 with a 50 day moving average of 38.54


    Ciena

    Barchart technical indicators:

     

    • 16% Barchat technical buy signals
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Above its 50 and 100 day moving averages
    • 14 new highs and up 11.16% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 49.54%
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 20.85
    • Recently traded at 21.11 with a 50 day moving average of 20.77


    SEI Investments

    Barchart technical indicators:

     

    • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
    • 14 new highs and up 4.92% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 58.61%
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 46.16
    • Recently traded at 46.06 with a 50 day moving average of 44.10


    Carpenter Technology

    Barchart technical indicators:

     

    • 72% Barchart technical buy signals
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
    • 13 new highs and up 23.85% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 76.14%
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 43.78
    • Recently traded at 44.85 with a 50 day moving average of 40.02
    Tags: STLD, POL, CIEN, SEIC, CRS
    May 05 1:03 PM | Link | Comment!
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  • $BFAM - 100% Barchart technical buy signals - 5 new highs and up 3.47% in the last month - Relative Strength Index 65.21%
    about 16 hours ago
  • $CRS - 72% Barchart technical buy signals - 13 new highs and up 23.85% in the last month - Relative Strength Index 76.14%
    about 20 hours ago
  • $SEIC - 88% Barchart technical buy signals - 14 new highs and up 4.92% in the last month - Relative Strength Index 58.61%
    about 20 hours ago
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