Jim Van Meerten is the Owner and Publisher of http://FinancialTides.blogspot.com and earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and post-baccalaureate and graduate courses in Business Administration,... More
On Financial Tides I always try to give a weekly analysis of the status of the stock market. Sometimes the press about the market reminds me of an impressionist painting. You can stand too close and all you see are brush strokes and patches of color. It's hard to tell what the painting is about. You've got to back up and view the painting from a wider perspective and then all those brush strokes and patches of color start to make sense and your mind now translates the chaos into a wonderful image you can appreciate.
The market reports were like that this week. Market up and down, gold, oil and the dollar sometimes going up together then reversing sometimes traveling independently and all the time the headlines on different news sites interpreting things differently. There were times when the headlines in different articles on the same page had the market going in different directions.
Let's step back across the room and try to make sense of all the different brush strokes, textures and blotches of color. As always I go to BarChart to find my data and start with the Value Line Index. I use that index because it contains 1700 stocks not just the 30 of the Dow or the 500 of the S&P 500.
Value Line Index -- 1700 stocks -- down .65% for the week but still up 4.38% month to date.
BarChart's 13 technical indicators have the Index rated 5 buys, 3 holds and 5 sells for an overall rating of hold
The Index closed on Friday above it's 20, 50 & 100 day moving averages
Weekly market momentum -- 6000 stocks -- the percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages
For those of you who have followed me you know I like to keep things simple and disciplined. My background in accounting and law forces my thinking process to take data, analysis it and then try to decide on a course of action. Before I push the buy button I need to know:
How is the economy doing?
How is the stock market doing?
What stocks have the most consistent price appreciation in the present economic and market environment?
Which individual stocks meet my minimum criteria to add to my portfolio?
There is just too much economic information out there and the more I research the more confused I get. Put two economist in a room and they will issue 5 different opinion papers. To cut through all that confusion I have come to rely on the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. It's published once a month and consists of a Leading Economic Index (LEI), a Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and a Lagging Economic Index (LAG). Since there are only 21 components on the report I'm not buried in so much data that I get confused.
I'd like to summarize the report to make it simple but have added a link to the complete report so you can make your own conclusions:
Stocks are dropped from the model portfolios on Financial Tides when they either fail to maintain there upward momentum or drop below their 50 day moving averages. We are dropping 2 stocks for the following reasons:
VMFIV - Marketocracy S&P 500 fund - Millipore Corp. -- MIL
Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA
Has not hit a new high since 8/7/09
On BarChart 9 of 13 technical indicators have sell signals for an overall sell signal of 68%
VMALP - Marketocracy Alpha fund - Alpha Pro Tech -- APT
I know there is a lot of caution in the commercial real estate market but as the population ages long-term care facilities should be a growth market. As always on Financial Tides I try to place my recommendations into one of my simulation portfolios for accountability of my recommendations. For that reason I'm adding Omega Health Care Investors - OHI - to my UpDown portfolio. The portfolio has an annual return on 120%.
Omega Healthcare Investors is a self-administered real estate investment trust which invests in income producing health care facilities, principally long--term care facilities, with the objective of profitable growth and further diversification of the investment portfolio. Investments are located primarily in the United States.
OHI came up on my BarChart screener when I was looking for companies trading over 100K shares a day that have hit new highs in over 50% of the last trading sessions. OHI has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. There has been a 29.75% price appreciation in the last 65 days. Barchart's technical indicators have 12 out of 13 buy signals with only one sell for an 88% buy rating and the sell was a long term indicator and a review of the price chart leads me to believe that the sell signal will turn by the end of the week.
Recently analysts from UBS and JMP have upgraded this stock and they estimate a 7.3% increase in revenues and a 13.1% increase in earnings per share. This is what you'd expect from a quality REIT.
Other sites have positive ratings also. Over on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has Survivor Sentiment at 5/5, Technicals at 5/5 and Motley Fool at 4/5. Further Motley Fool's members' rating by their out or under perform vote 179 to 9 to out perform with the All Stars rating it 48 to 1 to outperform the market.
This stock has 3 qualities I look for:
BarChart showing that the stock has hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions
No negative news from the analyst -- we don't want the brokerage firms trashing the stock we just bought with sell calls to their customers
Confirmation from other reliable sites that their members are also positive on this stock
Recommendation: I'm buying Omega Healthcare Investors -- OHI -- for my UpDown portfolio around 18.50 with a protective stop loss of not less than 16.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com
Disclosure: I do not own OHI at the time of publication
To be accountable for the recommendations I make on Financial Tides I always place my recommendations into one of my simulated portfolios to see how the stocks actually perform. BDX is being added to my portfolio on UpDown.com. That particular portfolio has a 120% annual rate of return.
The health care industry goes through a lot of supplies and one of the biggest providers of supplies is Becton Dickinson -- BDX -- NYSE. BDX is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of a broad line of supplies, devices and systems used by health care professionals, medical research institutions and the general public. BDX's operations consist of three worldwide business segments: Medical Systems, Biosciences, and Preanalytical Solutions.
Don't expect spectacular rates of return but most analyst feel it will out perform the market. There are 11 analyst following this stock and only 1 feels it will under perform the market.
I found the stock by screening on BarChart for stocks trading over 100K shares a day that have hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions. BDX has hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is recently 5 for 5. There has been a steady 12.36% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical analysis indicators have 12 buy signals out of 13 indicators with only 1 hold for a 96% Buy rating.
Although I have found BarChart to be dependable I always look to see what other sites think. Over on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has Survivor Sentiment 5/5, Fundamentals 4/5, Technical 5/5 and Motley Fool at 5/4 for a 93% rating.
Over on Motley Fool they have 3 out/under perform ratios with the following results: All Members 654/14, All-Star Members 225/12 and their Wall Street ratio 14/0.
This stock has 3 things I look for in any stock recommendation:
The stock is hitting new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions and has at least an 80% buy rating on BarChart
Has news buzz created by analysts from Wall Street and brokerage firms and do not have major negative outlooks
Has confirmation of my choice from other sites -- If there is disagreement I always take a second look for why.
Recommendation: I'm buying Becton Dickinson BDX for my UpDown portfolio around 73.50 with a protective stop loss not less than 69.50.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold any actual position in this stock at the time of publication.
As I was reading financial stories on the Internet I had the TV on and heard in the background that Costco (COST) had quit carrying Coke (KO) products. I knew that for years Coke was rumored to pressure stores and restaurants to carry only their products. Even today it's hard, almost impossible to find a restaurant where you can get both products.
I'm amazed as I go around to volume retailers how much Coke products vary in price. There seems to be no rhyme nor reason for this. You would think that Wal-Mart, BJ's, and Costco all pay the same price?
Both the Associated Press -- "Costco nixes Coke products over pricing dispute" and Bloomberg --"Costco stops restocking Coca-Cola products in dispute" have short articles but both Costco and Coke won't say much other than they are in price negotiations. Both stories quote a release from the company website that seems to have been taken down: "Coca-Cola has not provided Costco with competitive pricing so that we may pass along the value our customers deserve."
This is a dispute that will pay out behind closed doors but will effect many of us. My bet is that Coke won't budge. I think Costco needs Coke more than Coke needs Costco but either way I doubt if we will ever know if Costco got as good a deal as Wal-Mart. What do you think?
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in either company at the time of publication
Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters her and on Financial Tides. Please comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com
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Market needs some umph!
The market reports were like that this week. Market up and down, gold, oil and the dollar sometimes going up together then reversing sometimes traveling independently and all the time the headlines on different news sites interpreting things differently. There were times when the headlines in different articles on the same page had the market going in different directions.
Let's step back across the room and try to make sense of all the different brush strokes, textures and blotches of color. As always I go to BarChart to find my data and start with the Value Line Index. I use that index because it contains 1700 stocks not just the 30 of the Dow or the 500 of the S&P 500.
Value Line Index -- 1700 stocks -- down .65% for the week but still up 4.38% month to date.
Weekly market momentum -- 6000 stocks -- the percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages
More »Economy still improving
There is just too much economic information out there and the more I research the more confused I get. Put two economist in a room and they will issue 5 different opinion papers. To cut through all that confusion I have come to rely on the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. It's published once a month and consists of a Leading Economic Index (LEI), a Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and a Lagging Economic Index (LAG). Since there are only 21 components on the report I'm not buried in so much data that I get confused.
I'd like to summarize the report to make it simple but have added a link to the complete report so you can make your own conclusions:
More »Model portfolio changes
VMFIV - Marketocracy S&P 500 fund - Millipore Corp. -- MIL
VMALP - Marketocracy Alpha fund - Alpha Pro Tech -- APT
More »A healthy REIT
Omega Healthcare Investors is a self-administered real estate investment trust which invests in income producing health care facilities, principally long--term care facilities, with the objective of profitable growth and further diversification of the investment portfolio. Investments are located primarily in the United States.
OHI came up on my BarChart screener when I was looking for companies trading over 100K shares a day that have hit new highs in over 50% of the last trading sessions. OHI has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. There has been a 29.75% price appreciation in the last 65 days. Barchart's technical indicators have 12 out of 13 buy signals with only one sell for an 88% buy rating and the sell was a long term indicator and a review of the price chart leads me to believe that the sell signal will turn by the end of the week.
Recently analysts from UBS and JMP have upgraded this stock and they estimate a 7.3% increase in revenues and a 13.1% increase in earnings per share. This is what you'd expect from a quality REIT.
Other sites have positive ratings also. Over on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has Survivor Sentiment at 5/5, Technicals at 5/5 and Motley Fool at 4/5. Further Motley Fool's members' rating by their out or under perform vote 179 to 9 to out perform with the All Stars rating it 48 to 1 to outperform the market.
This stock has 3 qualities I look for:
Recommendation: I'm buying Omega Healthcare Investors -- OHI -- for my UpDown portfolio around 18.50 with a protective stop loss of not less than 16.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com
Disclosure: I do not own OHI at the time of publication
More »Everyone needs health care supplies
The health care industry goes through a lot of supplies and one of the biggest providers of supplies is Becton Dickinson -- BDX -- NYSE. BDX is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of a broad line of supplies, devices and systems used by health care professionals, medical research institutions and the general public. BDX's operations consist of three worldwide business segments: Medical Systems, Biosciences, and Preanalytical Solutions.
Don't expect spectacular rates of return but most analyst feel it will out perform the market. There are 11 analyst following this stock and only 1 feels it will under perform the market.
I found the stock by screening on BarChart for stocks trading over 100K shares a day that have hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions. BDX has hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is recently 5 for 5. There has been a steady 12.36% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical analysis indicators have 12 buy signals out of 13 indicators with only 1 hold for a 96% Buy rating.
Although I have found BarChart to be dependable I always look to see what other sites think. Over on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has Survivor Sentiment 5/5, Fundamentals 4/5, Technical 5/5 and Motley Fool at 5/4 for a 93% rating.
Over on Motley Fool they have 3 out/under perform ratios with the following results: All Members 654/14, All-Star Members 225/12 and their Wall Street ratio 14/0.
This stock has 3 things I look for in any stock recommendation:
Recommendation: I'm buying Becton Dickinson BDX for my UpDown portfolio around 73.50 with a protective stop loss not less than 69.50.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold any actual position in this stock at the time of publication.
More »Costco tries to kicj the Coke habit
I'm amazed as I go around to volume retailers how much Coke products vary in price. There seems to be no rhyme nor reason for this. You would think that Wal-Mart, BJ's, and Costco all pay the same price?
Both the Associated Press -- "Costco nixes Coke products over pricing dispute" and Bloomberg --"Costco stops restocking Coca-Cola products in dispute" have short articles but both Costco and Coke won't say much other than they are in price negotiations. Both stories quote a release from the company website that seems to have been taken down: "Coca-Cola has not provided Costco with competitive pricing so that we may pass along the value our customers deserve."
This is a dispute that will pay out behind closed doors but will effect many of us. My bet is that Coke won't budge. I think Costco needs Coke more than Coke needs Costco but either way I doubt if we will ever know if Costco got as good a deal as Wal-Mart. What do you think?
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in either company at the time of publication
Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters her and on Financial Tides. Please comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com
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