Jim Van Meerten's Instablog

Is The Phoenix Company Too Risky?

Mon, 20 May 2013 18:11:53 -0400

The Chart of the Day is The Phoenix Companies (PNX). It seems on the surface to have some pretty good technical indicators buy I want you to read them all so you can see when a stock seems just too good to be true.

It is a provider of wealth management products and services offered through a variety of select advisors and financial services firms to serve the accumulation, preservation and transfer needs of the affluent and high net worth market, businesses and institutions. The company refers to its products and services together as its wealth management solutions. The company offers a broad range of life insurance, variable annuity and investment management solutions through a variety of distributors.

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Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
20 new highs and up 51.07% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 89.87%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 38.32
Recently traded at 40.79 with a 50 day moving average of 30.12

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap - $236.58 million
P/E 6.68
Revenue predicted to decrease 18.50% this year and decline another 6.00% next year
Earnings are estimated to shrink 212.20% this year but turn around and increase 214.60% next year and continue to increase by 15.00% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 1 hold and 1 sell report
Financial Strength C

Summary: Although the stock is on the new high you have to look beyond the chart and look for red flags. The stock shot up by 51.07% in the last month and has a Relative Strength Index approaching 90%. Too much, too fast. No analysts have a buy recommendation and the Financial Strength in only a C. Revenue has a negative trend. I hope you look at all the signals and decide this stock just has too much risk and probably not enough upside potential. Always look at all the numbers before you buy.

Give ETFs Some Consideration

Mon, 20 May 2013 17:13:29 -0400

I've gotten some questions about using the Barchart New High List to find Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that have as good a momentum as stocks. Today I used the ETF column in the New High List and then sorted them for frequency. Then I used to Flipchart feature to go through the sorted list to find charts I think reflect consistent momentum. The list includes China Technology ETF (CQQQ), S & P Technology North America IShares (IGM), Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Tracking ETF (ONEQ), KLDS 400 Social Index IShares (DSI) and Vanguard Growth ETF(VUG):

China Technology ETF (CQQQ)

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Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above it's 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
20 new highs and up 19.48% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 84.70%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 26.01
Recently traded at 26.93 with a 50 day moving average of 23.61

S & P Technology North American IShares (IGM)

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Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 11.11% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.73%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 76.15
Recently traded at 77.11 with a 50 day moving average of 72.72

Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Tracking ETF (ONEQ)

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96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 9.51% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 76.00%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 136.78
Recently traded at 137.99 with a 50 day moving average of 129.72

KLDS 400 Social Index IShares (DSI)

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Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 7.45% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 79.08%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 61.85
Recently traded at 62.33 with a 50 day moving average of 58.86

Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)

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Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
18 new highs and up 7.76% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 70.46%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 81.65
Recently traded at 82.26 with a 50 day moving average of 78.23

Legg Mason - Barchart's Chart Of The Day

Sat, 18 May 2013 13:34:49 -0400

The Chart of the Day is Legg Mason (LM). Lately the stock has terrific momentum and was up in all of the last 20 trading sessions. The stock gained 47.89% in the last 12 months and still has a P/E below the market average. We found the stock by sorting the New High list for frequency.

It is a holding company which, through its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in providing asset management, securities brokerage,investment banking and related financial services to individuals,institutions, corporations and municipalities.

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Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 540 and 100 day moving averages
20 new highs and up 20.11% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 81.01%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.22
Recently traded at 36.13 with a 50 day moving average of 31.88

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $4.66 billion
P/E 13.52
Dividend yield 1.25%
Financial Strength B+
Revenue predicted to increase 2.40% this year and another 4.10% next year
Earnings estimated to grow 183.00% this year, an additional 15.50% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 16.67% for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts have issued 3 strong buy,7 hold and 4 sell recommendations

Hold unless the stock drops below its 50 day moving average.

Jet Blue Sell Signals

Sat, 18 May 2013 13:01:49 -0400

All of my model portfolios has different screening criteria: some based on technical momentum, some based on fundamental factors and some based on both. Occasionally a stock may meet the screening criteria of more than one portfolio. That happened with Jet Blue (JBLU). It was added to the New High portfolio when I screened for stocks trading over 100,000 shares a day hitting the most frequent new highs and at the same time was added to the Speculative portfolio because it was a stock trading under $10 the was hitting new highs.

Today I'm deleting it from both because it has reversed that former momentum:

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Barchart technical indicators:

80% Barchart short term technical sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
7.74% loss in the last 20 days
11.54% off its 1 year high
Relative Strength Index 39.81%

WhiteWave Foods - Barcharts Chart Of The Day

Thu, 16 May 2013 23:52:51 -0400

The Chart of the Day is the WhiteWave Foods Company (WWAV). During the last month the stock advance 11 times for a 15.90% gain. It has both 100% Barchart technical buy signals and a Trend spotter buy signal. The stock was found by sorting the New High list for the stocks with the highest technical buy signals.

It is a consumer packaged food and beverage company. It manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded plant-based foods and beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, and premium dairy products throughout North America and Europe. The Company's products include soy milk, flavored creamers, organic milk, yogurt, cheese, butter, sour creams, and whipped creams. It serves the grocery and natural foods channels in the United States.

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Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 15.90% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.94
Barchart computes a technical support level at 18.39
Recently traded at 19.10 with a 50 day moving average of 17.03

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $439.30 million
P/E 28.90
Revenue predicted to grow 8.90% this year and another 7.90% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 16.70% this year, 18.60% next year and compound 17.50% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 5 strong buy, 1 buy and 4 hold recommendations

Hold until the stock traded below its 50 day moving average.

5 Nasdaq 100 Winners

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:29:48 -0400

Today I used Barchart to sort the NASDAQ 100 Index to find the 5 stocks with the best technical buy signals and charts and found Micron Technology (MU), Priceline.com (PCLN), Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL), Stericycle (SRCL) and Automatic Data Processing (ADP):

Micron Technology (MU)

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Barchart technical indicators: