Seeking Alpha

JJ Butler

 
View as an RSS Feed
View JJ Butler's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • NII Holdings Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    I think NIHD goes to zero.
    May 2 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Holdings Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Third quarter results were an unmitigated disaster. Run from the stock. Take the ticker off your screen!
    Oct 31 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    As a long time market observer, bankruptcy's always occur before debt maturity's and sooner than expected by a balance sheet study. Consider PCX as exhibit A...
    Jul 9 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    The asset sale must be considered in light of EV (enterprise value, equity + debt) which tells a very different story. Further, exports are down this year as this essay linked...
    Jul 9 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    ACI, ANR, JRCC and even mighty BTU have reported significant losses and shut operations. Unfortunately for the coal mining business, the statement is all to true.
    Jul 9 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
    Jul 9 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    Except for Cloud Peak Energy (CLD)...
    Jul 9 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Holdings Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Brazil doesn't plan on releasing 4G spectrum until 2015 and Mexico is further behind.
    Jul 8 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares May Still Collapse [View article]
    The possibility is why we watch the stock so closely...
    Jul 4 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares May Still Collapse [View article]
    Mr. Hyperinflation:
    1) If gold and silver and gold average $13.5 and $965 the metals complex would be beat down so badly that SLW's current guidance would be outrageously off...
    2) Four and a half years until debt free is far from encouraging...
    3) Did dividends stop in your model?
    Thanks for sharing your work!
    Jun 26 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares May Still Collapse [View article]
    Mr. Hyperinflation: All mines were included in estimates provided by the company.
    Jun 25 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares Could Face Distress [View article]
    "If two events occur, however, Silver Wheaton shares would quickly become distressed. The first event would be significant further stream acquisitions, something management clearly states the intent to accomplish. The second event would be a meaningful fall in the price of silver."

    Two updates:
    1) At SLW's latest investor presentation the idea of further stream acquisitions was ignored instead as opposed to trumpeted only two months ago.
    2) The price of silver has fallen modestly.

    A price of silver under $20 shows a very rich valuation and with debt repayment slightly arduous...while a $50 POS in 2016 would see SLW drowning in cash...the position is interesting, almost binary.
    Apr 26 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares Could Face Distress [View article]
    Yes, the unnecessary risk is created with the short term debt against the (fantastic) long term assets. Thus in the financial crisis SLW fell to $2.xx while FNV and RGLD held up much better...they avoid the risk the financing risk.

    As for hedging, which would mitigate the risk, we would see shareholders revolt. The rich valuation could disappear without the call-like upside.
    Apr 10 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loews: Unabashed Conglomerate [View article]
    1) The industry on whole has a negative combined ratio. 2) Price directly effects conservative (Jim Grant: "There are no bad bonds, only bad bond prices.") 3) In the long run the conservative take from the speculative. 4) A CNA positions was not advocated...L's was suggested.

    Meanwhile, natural gas suddenly looks the best it has in two years...
    Mar 18 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EV Energy Partners: The Price Is Finally Right [View article]
    "The approximate 2% average override in about 880,000 acres in Ohio could generate cash flow of $50 million or more per year within 5 years."

    The royalty business is my favorite...
    Mar 15 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
280 Comments
164 Likes