Seeking Alpha

Joan Feldbaum-Vidra

 
View as an RSS Feed
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Puerto Rico's Bonds Are Moving To New York [View article]
    Very well argued.
    Mar 4 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico - Time For Help [View article]
    But wouldn't stave off default!
    But yes, that is the recipe for growth after a restructuring.... Thanks for your comment!
    Feb 12 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe In Deflation Denial [View article]
    Hi Desmond,
    Prescient article. Thanks for writing it.
    Deflation is WAY more worrisome than inflation in this context. I should also add that I recently wrote a piece on Slovenia that took a bit of comfort in the fact inflation was still somewhat buoyant. Well the newest data shows a reversal of this trend. Not good.
    On the broader issue -- the existential question of the survivability of the Eurozone-- deflation is definitely a complicating factor, and could be the nail in the coffin.
    Jan 9 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Difficult Problems May Command Creative Solutions [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. I would speculate that DC doesn't have the appetite for 2 more Democratic senators and perhaps 5 more Democratic house members. So statehood is not an option, in my read.
    Dec 12 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Difficult Problems May Command Creative Solutions [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I agree, a restructuring would not address the feebleness of the economy, although it would arguably free up some fiscal resources in the budget. But if a restructuring were to occur the markets would close to PR for some time, so it would have to be self financing.

    Restructuring without the ability to devalue the currency (ie no boost to export led growth), and with the exodus of people likely to accelerate, -- well.... this is a very dim picture.

    Very good points. Thanks again.
    Dec 12 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Canary In Europe's Deflation Coal Mine [View article]
    Excellent point. And that is exactly why I am not confident at all that this Eurozone experiment, as we know it today, is durable.
    Dec 10 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Canary In Europe's Deflation Coal Mine [View article]
    Desmond, nice and insightful piece!
    The ECB will sit by and watch, a very conscious decision. It knows the risks and will set policy for the core, not the periphery.
    Dec 10 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Prudent Policies Won't Solve Competitiveness Deficit [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Note I ended the piece with a vague reference to creative thinking. There are indeed options to avoid a painful restructuring, and this will be the subject of my next piece.
    Your reference to remittances is very interesting. I recently took a group of investors to PR and we asked about this a lot. I was quite surprised to learn that such transfers are insignificant. Please share what you know about this, as it is an important point!
    Dec 2 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Prudent Policies Won't Solve Competitiveness Deficit [View article]
    Hi there. Have a look at this chart:
    http://bit.ly/1cRnPPc
    This link provides a breakdown of GNP by sources (C+I+G+X-M), data provided by the Planning Board. You'll notice the trends in exports and imports of goods and services. Interestingly, the net external deficit has narrowed quite substantially because while exports haven't grown much since 2006, import growth has even been even more subdued (thanks to the economic malaise). The net external deficit (mostly with the USA, of course) shrunk from 26% of GNP in 2006 to about 18% in 2012. Investment dropped less precipitously, from 21% of GNP to 15% of GNP over the period. Total consumption has stayed virtually stagnant (although the public portion has risen). Hence, while investment dampened GNP growth, net exports was actually a positive contributor (in relative terms.)
    Thanks for the comment! I hope this response is helpful.
    Nov 29 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Prudent Policies Won't Solve Competitiveness Deficit [View article]
    Hi there. Thanks for the comment. Rich Puerto Ricans may be tempted to come back because of new laws that shield taxes on investment earnings (Act 22). I do believe the government is extremely knowledgeable about what needs to be done. It is supposedly pushing PREPA vigorously and also in discussions about BOT projects offshore to handle gas imports. PREPA unions are very much against these changes; that's a difficult union to battle. Solar is a great idea for this sunny island too... I am not sure what the discussions are on that front. The next few months will be very enlightening to reveal the resolve of government to push ahead in this area. And yes, I agree, there would be many positive repercussions from progress on reducing the high energy prices. And again, the government is keenly aware of and serious about the issues and risks that PR faces related to competitiveness.
    Nov 29 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Severe Economic Trends Cloud Fiscal Solution [View article]
    Hi Chris, Great piece. I have enjoyed it thoroughly!

    The segment of the Puerto Rican labor force that works in the pharmaceutical industry has exposure to cutting edge technologies, processes, and know-how. Puerto Rican entrepreneurs and scientists need to take the next step, and use this knowledge as a platform.

    On the demographic issue, the combination of low fertility and quite largescale emigration is indeed very unsettling. The access to the US means there is nothing to stop the outflow, EXCEPT the creation of good opportunities for employment on the Island. With the economic situation deteriorating, the numbers for the next few years may be startling, I worry.
    Nov 28 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Severe Economic Trends Cloud Fiscal Solution [View article]
    Hi. Statehood would mean adding 2 democratic senators and another 6-7 democratic congressmen in the House of Representatives. This wouldn't be very digestable to many in DC. We shall see!
    Nov 28 06:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
12 Comments
7 Likes