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Joe Eifrid  

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  • SunEdison CEO discloses purchase [View news story]
    9,700 shares is nothing in itself for a SUNE insider, but when he already has 845,000 shares he is sending the message that he is not selling. CFO bought 50k. That means something IMO.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital's BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation Compared To Several Agency mREIT Peers (Post Q1 2015 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    Scott, ORC has been taken to the woodshed since the article was posted. Thanks for the heads up! Now, with ORC trading at 70% of June 30th $12.38 per share book, do you think ORC is now a buy?
    Jul 17, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore reaches restructuring deal with creditors [View news story]
    Jan, You are calculating the value incorrectly. 3% of .67 is .02 cents a share. But, that is the wrong way to look at it. Don't confuse the share price with the value of the restructured enterprise. I did a quick back of envelope calculation on last reported book value minus long term debt. I came up with 27 cents per share book value for existing shareholders. I don't have time to look deeper but just wanted to get a ball park. If HERO was to fall to 2 cents I would be buying with both hands.
    Jun 18, 2015. 07:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: What Did I Ever See In This Name? [View article]
    FWIW...Insider Zimmer, Co-CEO and President, posted a 100,000 share buy yesterday.
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another cold blast on track for Permian oil patch [View news story]
    Obviously the high cost producers with the most shallow pockets will be the first to go to chip away at the over production. My point being that the excess supply doesn't appear that daunting that market forces can't eliminate the excess production quickly.
    Jan 8, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another cold blast on track for Permian oil patch [View news story]
    I don't get it. I read the world has about 1.5mbpd extra production. That is only about 1.7% extra over consumption. That is about 550mb per year extra. At today's consumption rates that is about 6.4 days of global supply. How hard could it be to cut that production by that 1.7% and get back to equilibrium? We don't even need to cut that full 1.7% because lower prices tend to increase consumption. I know I am looking at this simplistically, but I don't see prices staying low that long. CNBC reported today that of the 5 times since 1980 that oil has fallen 50% in months, oil was ALWAYS up 50% 6 months later. I think that as fast as the price of oil fell, production will be curtailed quickly.
    Just my own uniformed opinion.
    Jan 7, 2015. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage Quarterly Earnings And Future Prospects [View article]
    David, I quit following this one. Is the lawsuit for the preferreds still working through the system? Also, I don't see how the liquidation preference gives value to the preferreds unless IMH files bankruptcy, and their preference comes only in to play after all more senior debt is satisfied in full.
    Also, do you know if IMH were to start paying a dividend to the common, would they need to start paying the dividend to IMPHO and IMPHP first? I thought those rights were stripped away with the tender offer, and that was the point of the lawsuit.
    Two insider buys posted today.
    Thanks for the article.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie Did Not Need A Bailout [View article]
    David, I think the way the gov't handled FHA vs how they handled Fannie and Freddie is significant and I hope brought out at trial. All the treasury needed to do was make the guarantee explicit which is assumed with FHA paper, and Fannie and Freddie would have not needed to borrow anything if they were allowed to show a negative net worth through the work out. They let FHA do that. Why not FnF??

    I wish we would have been able to discuss this more but I got kicked off the FnF google board. So much for wanting to hear a differing opinion...
    Oct 17, 2014. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie Did Not Need A Bailout [View article]
    David, I have always contended that FNMA and FMCC had significant cash flow to see themselves through the financial crisis. One has to look no further than FHA which had a much worse book of loans, and did not talk of needing additional funds until about two years ago. I don't know if they ever had to get more funds from the government. You know that in the early 80's FNMA's new worth dropped below zero and there was no talk of conservatorship as they had sufficient cash flow then too.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Surge in rail shipments of oil is causing delays for other industries [View news story]
    I say "bull!" Perhaps early last year or the year before they could make this argument. Look at the most recent rail traffic report for this week. Rail traffic is up a miniscule .5% YTD. Carloads are actually down .4% YTD.
    Petroleum products are up 7%. Last year for the full year they were up 31%, but most of those gains came in the 1st half. Year over year comparisons have been getting tighter since.
    Mar 14, 2014. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    From my understanding, delegated are lenders that are approved to bind coverage on their behalf. Undelegated may not.

    NMIH wrote this in their prospectus;

    "Evaluating risk in a timely fashion on all insured loans. Through our innovative underwriting solution, National MI TrueInsightSM, we intend to review every loan we insure through both our delegated and non-delegated channels. National MI TrueInsightSM solution confirms underwriting eligibility, either prior to loan closing in the non-delegated channel or through a post-closing underwriting review in the delegated channel. Our "Delegated
    Assurance Review" provides a review of each mortgage insurance policy issued by our customers under their delegated authority. This differs from other MI companies that typically underwrite a sampling of policies originated through their delegated underwriting channels. By underwriting each policy, we believe we can more effectively manage the risk characteristics in our portfolio and provide a high level of confidence to our lenders that valid claims will be paid. We also expect this process will allow us to provide our customers with timely, value-added feedback on the risk characteristics of their loan originations. "

    As far capital and insurance in force I am not much help. I see ESNT has $854 mil in assets, and $722 in net equity, but have $32 bil in insurance in force, with a risk to capital ratio of16.5:1. I can't find a way in how to back into those numbers. This is above my pay grade. I would love to have someone explain that to me.
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    I have no idea how to estimate that. ESNT reported today. Perhaps some clues there?

    Included was this excerpt;
    "The percentage of loans in default as of December 31, 2013 was 0.11%, compared to 0.09% as of December 31, 2012."

    "The provision for losses and LAE for the fourth quarter was $0.7 million, compared to $0.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the full year 2013, the provision for losses and LAE was $2.3 million, compared to $1.5 million in 2012. "
    ESNT reported insurance in force of $32 bil.
    Feb 19, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    Amici Capital LLC increased ownership from 5.1% at IPO to 7.6% posted today.

    Perry Capital also increased ownership of $NMIH from 7.2% to 7.94%.
    Feb 14, 2014. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    Hi David, This doesn't address your question directly but this is from the ESNT prospectus;
    "Historically, mortgage insurance utilization has been meaningfully higher in purchase compared to refinancing originations. In 2012, total U.S. residential mortgage origination volume was $1.75 trillion, comprised of $503 billion of purchase originations and $1.25 trillion of refinancing originations. In recent years, historically low interest rates and special refinance programs, such as HARP, have caused refinancing volume to significantly outpace purchase originations. Purchase originations are expected to account for an increasing percentage of the overall mortgage market as the economic recovery and favorable housing market fundamentals stimulate growth in home buying activity, and a rising interest rate environment slows refinancing volume. "

    It appears ESNT looks more favorably as purchase origination.

    ESNT made this comment in their prospectus to the chart I posted;
    "We view HARP as a modification of the coverage on existing insurance in force, and therefore when estimating our market share based on NIW, we exclude HARP NIW from total industry NIW."

    It appears that HARP may have not been much help to ESNT as HARP was a modification to EXISTING insurance.

    Thanks for the question. If I find anything more I will post.
    Feb 6, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    I just noticed that Arch Capital Group (ACGL) completed the acquisition of CMG Mortgage Insurance Company from CUNA Mutual Group, and an operating platform from PMI Mortgage Insurance last week. The acquisition will form Arch Mortgage Insurance Company to offer MI in the US.
    Feb 3, 2014. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment