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Joe Eifrid

 
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  • WSJ: Surge in rail shipments of oil is causing delays for other industries [View news story]
    I say "bull!" Perhaps early last year or the year before they could make this argument. Look at the most recent rail traffic report for this week. Rail traffic is up a miniscule .5% YTD. Carloads are actually down .4% YTD.
    http://bit.ly/1d35kXI
    Petroleum products are up 7%. Last year for the full year they were up 31%, but most of those gains came in the 1st half. Year over year comparisons have been getting tighter since.
    Mar 14 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    From my understanding, delegated are lenders that are approved to bind coverage on their behalf. Undelegated may not.

    NMIH wrote this in their prospectus;

    "Evaluating risk in a timely fashion on all insured loans. Through our innovative underwriting solution, National MI TrueInsightSM, we intend to review every loan we insure through both our delegated and non-delegated channels. National MI TrueInsightSM solution confirms underwriting eligibility, either prior to loan closing in the non-delegated channel or through a post-closing underwriting review in the delegated channel. Our "Delegated
    Assurance Review" provides a review of each mortgage insurance policy issued by our customers under their delegated authority. This differs from other MI companies that typically underwrite a sampling of policies originated through their delegated underwriting channels. By underwriting each policy, we believe we can more effectively manage the risk characteristics in our portfolio and provide a high level of confidence to our lenders that valid claims will be paid. We also expect this process will allow us to provide our customers with timely, value-added feedback on the risk characteristics of their loan originations. "

    As far capital and insurance in force I am not much help. I see ESNT has $854 mil in assets, and $722 in net equity, but have $32 bil in insurance in force, with a risk to capital ratio of16.5:1. I can't find a way in how to back into those numbers. This is above my pay grade. I would love to have someone explain that to me.
    Feb 20 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    I have no idea how to estimate that. ESNT reported today. Perhaps some clues there?
    http://bit.ly/MdqZos

    Included was this excerpt;
    "The percentage of loans in default as of December 31, 2013 was 0.11%, compared to 0.09% as of December 31, 2012."

    also...
    "The provision for losses and LAE for the fourth quarter was $0.7 million, compared to $0.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the full year 2013, the provision for losses and LAE was $2.3 million, compared to $1.5 million in 2012. "
    ESNT reported insurance in force of $32 bil.
    Feb 19 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    Amici Capital LLC increased ownership from 5.1% at IPO to 7.6% posted today.
    http://bit.ly/1eX4LE8

    Perry Capital also increased ownership of $NMIH from 7.2% to 7.94%.
    http://bit.ly/1eX4MIf
    Feb 14 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    Hi David, This doesn't address your question directly but this is from the ESNT prospectus;
    "Historically, mortgage insurance utilization has been meaningfully higher in purchase compared to refinancing originations. In 2012, total U.S. residential mortgage origination volume was $1.75 trillion, comprised of $503 billion of purchase originations and $1.25 trillion of refinancing originations. In recent years, historically low interest rates and special refinance programs, such as HARP, have caused refinancing volume to significantly outpace purchase originations. Purchase originations are expected to account for an increasing percentage of the overall mortgage market as the economic recovery and favorable housing market fundamentals stimulate growth in home buying activity, and a rising interest rate environment slows refinancing volume. "

    It appears ESNT looks more favorably as purchase origination.

    ESNT made this comment in their prospectus to the chart I posted;
    "We view HARP as a modification of the coverage on existing insurance in force, and therefore when estimating our market share based on NIW, we exclude HARP NIW from total industry NIW."

    It appears that HARP may have not been much help to ESNT as HARP was a modification to EXISTING insurance.

    Thanks for the question. If I find anything more I will post.
    Feb 6 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NMI Holdings Insures Potential Gains [View article]
    I just noticed that Arch Capital Group (ACGL) completed the acquisition of CMG Mortgage Insurance Company from CUNA Mutual Group, and an operating platform from PMI Mortgage Insurance last week. The acquisition will form Arch Mortgage Insurance Company to offer MI in the US.
    http://bit.ly/1ajESgx
    Feb 3 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Investments - An IntREITsting Dividend Play [View article]
    Thanks for the link. I assume that the current reported book of $3.45 is comparable as to a term of what the other mREITs report.
    Jan 2 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Investments - An IntREITsting Dividend Play [View article]
    Can someone explain to me the difference of the two book values CIM reports, and which one more closely compares with what the other mREITs report? And, why doesn't the others post book and economic book? TIA
    Jan 2 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Investments - An IntREITsting Dividend Play [View article]
    Is it really possible to come to an investment decision on CIM when they are still a year behind on seeing more current financial filings. Let's face it, 2013 has been a game changer for many mREITs and how do we really know how well they have done.
    Jan 2 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An 8.2% Yielding Safer Alternative To Annaly Capital [View article]
    SSRAP - Do you know if the underlying debenture is junior subordinated or senior unsub? If junior, then all the secured debt would have to be paid in full, and senior debt would have to be 100% satisfied in full before the junior receives something in BK. I read through the prospectus quickly but could not tell;
    http://1.usa.gov/1lxaSxl
    I owned Great Atlantic Tea (A&P, etc) senior unsecured and thought the same thing, but got burned for zero recovery due to DIP financing and secured debt. Just sayin'.
    Dec 31 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 9.8% Yield And Monthly Dividends For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    "Are you so sure the economy is out of the woods and the battle against deflation is won? I doubt it."

    I doubt it too. Not sure how that applies to what I wrote.
    Dec 30 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 9.8% Yield And Monthly Dividends For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Might add that there was two ARR insider buys for 10,000 shares each reported on December 19th.
    Dec 29 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 9.8% Yield And Monthly Dividends For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    What I am suggesting is that due to the environment that the mREIT preferreds have found themselves in, with the uncertainties of interest rates, and tax loss selling here at year end when investors may find themselves hard pressed to find losses to offset heavy gains, that a mREIT preferred play may offer a better total return over one year than buying the mREIT common itself sporting a higher current dividend. Looking at risk/reward I think the trade favors the preferreds.
    Dec 29 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 9.8% Yield And Monthly Dividends For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    I think with the knee jerk reaction to interest rates rising, along with tax loss selling here at year end, a 10 year treasury at 4% has been more than priced in. Looking at NLY preferreds in April of 2010 when the 10yr hit 4%, NLY-A was yielding about 8%, just a bit lower than it is today. ARR-A yielding 8% would put the PPS $4.75 higher than the PPS is here; even a 9% yield would having ARR-A climbing 9% to $22.91. Just taking the move to a 9% yield plus the dividends for the next year of $2.06 would give you a total return of 18.9%.

    Other mREIT preferreds with yields near 9.5% and above; ARR-B, NYMTP, CYS-B, MITT-A, MITT-B. I don't own any NYMTP, but hold the others plus DX-A.
    http://bit.ly/19UbOtQ
    Dec 29 10:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potentially Good News For American Capital Agency [View article]
    Mortgage Applications Down 66% From Highs To New 13-Year Low
    http://bit.ly/1eF9QkZ
    Dec 25 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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