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Joe Eifrid  

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  • Wall Street recruiters are salivating at last year's 61% slump in Bank of America's (BAC) share price, hoping it will be the catalyst that leads to easy poaching of its much vaunted advisor ranks. Excessive bureaucracy, decisions made with little broker input and an agressive push to cross-sell bank products have eroded the culture at Merrill since BofA bought the firm about three years ago.  [View news story]
    Yeah, if someone stuck with BAC/ML all this time, why leave now? The bar for getting bonuses I would imagine is pretty low down here after a 61% haircut last year. From a contrarian point of view, now might be the time to jump on BAC. I think they could go from worst to best of the Dow. Those $13 plus change, 2019 warrants look tempting. BAC/WS/A.
    Jan 6, 2012. 10:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In charging into the housing debate, the Fed risks politicizing itself, David Reilly writes. William Dudley called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth, and a recent white paper went beyond the Fed's already unconventional policies. Reaction to talk of a new government housing policy (I, II) underscored how perceptions of Fed independence already have eroded.  [View news story]
    "called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth"

    Geesh! Like 4% 30 years loans are not good enough?? Government intervention in the housing industry got us into the problem in the first place.
    Jan 6, 2012. 06:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orders for heavy-duty trucks rose 12% Y/Y in December and +46% from November, according to market research firm ACT Research. Although macro-freight metrics remain mixed, December's heavy-duty order volume was the second-highest month since early 2006, and is giving a lift to trucking stocks: Paccar (PCAR +4.4%), Navistar (NAV +3%) and Cummins (CMI +2.3%).  [View news story]
    I wonder if the big tax benefits that expired at the end of the year for capital expenditures in section 179 had anything to do with the end of year surge in truck sales. I am watching ISRG. I think they may be effected as well with a very nice Q4 but guiding lower for Q1. As far as I know congress did not extend into 2012.
    Jan 5, 2012. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When banks have routinely filed falsified mortgage promissory notes, with tens of thousands of fraudulent documents filed in tens of thousands of cases - "rampant, self-evident, easy to prosecute" fraud - what does it take to get prosecutions? Barry Ritholtz: "It is shocking to watch the U.S... slip into a banana republic."  [View news story]
    Note to self... Next time I write something for Seeking Alpha, add a comment about religion to increase the page views.
    Dec 31, 2011. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining just 10.7% in 2011, Wells Fargo replaces JPMorgan as the largest bank/broker in the country. At a $145B market cap, Wells is larger than Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley combined. Of the 20 largest financials, only 2 were green on the year - AMEX +10% and Discover +29%.  [View news story]
    Hmm..Interesting paired trade. Short WFC and combined same dollar amount long in BAC, MS, and GS.

    Personally I think C is going to be the big bank winner for 2012.
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When banks have routinely filed falsified mortgage promissory notes, with tens of thousands of fraudulent documents filed in tens of thousands of cases - "rampant, self-evident, easy to prosecute" fraud - what does it take to get prosecutions? Barry Ritholtz: "It is shocking to watch the U.S... slip into a banana republic."  [View news story]
    Is Barry Ritholtz whining about this again? Move on folks, nothing criminal here. Everything can be explained by an insufficient education system, laziness, greed, and an incompetent government. Usually Ritholtz is a sharp guy. Wonder why he is falling for the poor borrower/poor me victimization scheme? I guess because it is popular and gives him some public face time here on SA and elsewhere. He would make a great politician.
    Dec 23, 2011. 07:47 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross Still Likes Annaly Capital And So Should You [View article]
    Thanks for the replies. I like the agency REITs and they account for most my holdings in this industry, but IVR with their buyback, connection to Wilbur Ross, and wider discount to book has me owning some of it as well. I also find interesting AMTG's 19% discount to book attractive although I was disappointed with their first dividend. It will be interesting to see what they can do now that they are fully invested.
    Dec 22, 2011. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross Still Likes Annaly Capital And So Should You [View article]
    Can you give me a quick list of the agency REITs? AGNC, NLY.... I think MTGE and AMTG are nearly 90% and above agency. Which ones am I missing? Thanks.
    Dec 22, 2011. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Wicked Reasons To Buy Mortgage REITs Today [View article]
    Have you guys looked at mREIT AMTG? New mREIT that IPO'd this summer. They should be announcing their first dividend soon and I think the stock could pop as it moves to the income producing screens. About 90% invested into agency MBS and 10% into non-agency. They doubled up their investments in October when PrimeX was showing weakness. Just about the same investment strategy and book value as MTGE. MTGE has already announced an 80 cents quarterly divy and selling for 18.52 ,whilst AMTG is dragging it's feet and has not at 15.82. Worth a look IMO.
    Dec 15, 2011. 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Buyback Won't Save Invesco [View article]
    HAVE YOU GUYS...sorry...have you guys looked at mREIT AMTG? New mREIT that IPO'd this summer. They should be announcing their first dividend soon and I think the stock could pop as it moves to the income producing screens. About 90% invested into agency MBS and 10% into non-agency. They doubled up their investments in October when PrimeX was showing weakness. Just about the same investment strategy and book value as MTGE. MTGE has already announced an 80 cents quarterly divy and selling for 18.52 ,whilst AMTG is dragging it's feet and has not at 15.82. Worth a look IMO.
    Dec 15, 2011. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From The Survival Of Citigroup [View article]
    Some calculate return on funds at risk. That's how I look at it. $18.00 strike less the $2.78 credit is $15.22. Worst case if C goes belly up the most you lose is $15.22 and therefor how much you have at risk. If C closes above $18.00 on expiration you keep the $2.78 and that is 18.3 return on $15.22. Since you are selling a put and this is not a covered call there are no dividends.

    Look at this chart on C. Looks like C did a great job in raising their tangible common equity as compared to others.

    http://bit.ly/vhQEAV
    Dec 9, 2011. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of American Airlines (AMR) are halted (yet again) after tripping up a circuit breaker. It's been almost non-stop on-again, off-again trading in AMR ever since its bankruptcy filing because as a Russell 1000 stock it's governed by a trading rule that fires up a 5-minute pause anytime the transaction price moves 10% or more in the preceding 5 minutes. Pundits call the rule "absurd" as they beg the SEC to change the logic for low-priced stocks. For the record, AMR is up 61% on the day or about $0.41. [View news story]
    I am seeing Junior bonds selling in the 10 to 20 levels (10 to 20 cents on the dollar). That indicates more than anything that the AMR common shares will end up worthless. I think yesterday was a gift to get out of the common with at least something. I would sell and take the tax loss.
    Dec 8, 2011. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT (ARR) announces an 8M share secondary offering, with an option to purchase up to 1.2M additional shares as warranted. Deutsche will act as the sole bookrunning manager of the offering. Shares -3.4% AH.  [View news story]
    Interesting that the mortgage REITs have been so beaten up but yet they still have no problems raising more capital to invest in mortgages. MTGE looks interesting. New mREIT selling for a 20%+ discount to book.
    Dec 7, 2011. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of American Airlines (AMR) are halted (yet again) after tripping up a circuit breaker. It's been almost non-stop on-again, off-again trading in AMR ever since its bankruptcy filing because as a Russell 1000 stock it's governed by a trading rule that fires up a 5-minute pause anytime the transaction price moves 10% or more in the preceding 5 minutes. Pundits call the rule "absurd" as they beg the SEC to change the logic for low-priced stocks. For the record, AMR is up 61% on the day or about $0.41. [View news story]
    The price action in AMR common is crazy. The common will end up worthless and the senior unsub exchange traded debt shares of AAR are selling for just 20 cents on the dollar. If the common had a chance of all getting any distribution the bonds would be trading nearer to full value. As I recall Delta actually rose to close to $4 per share in BK and still ended up worthless.

    Please Mr Market, go crazy with the MF bk shares I hold. lol!
    Dec 7, 2011. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Assured Guaranty (AGO +4.4%) tack on another tidy gain, a day after gaining 8.7% on the strength of an analyst upgrade. Today's actions could be tied in part to a ratings boost from S&P on securities insured by the firm.  [View news story]
    May have more to do with Wilbur Ross Buying 2.464 million shares in an insider buy. Posted last night.
    Dec 6, 2011. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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