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Joe Eifrid

 
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  • When banks have routinely filed falsified mortgage promissory notes, with tens of thousands of fraudulent documents filed in tens of thousands of cases - "rampant, self-evident, easy to prosecute" fraud - what does it take to get prosecutions? Barry Ritholtz: "It is shocking to watch the U.S... slip into a banana republic."  [View news story]
    Is Barry Ritholtz whining about this again? Move on folks, nothing criminal here. Everything can be explained by an insufficient education system, laziness, greed, and an incompetent government. Usually Ritholtz is a sharp guy. Wonder why he is falling for the poor borrower/poor me victimization scheme? I guess because it is popular and gives him some public face time here on SA and elsewhere. He would make a great politician.
    Dec 23, 2011. 07:47 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross Still Likes Annaly Capital And So Should You [View article]
    Thanks for the replies. I like the agency REITs and they account for most my holdings in this industry, but IVR with their buyback, connection to Wilbur Ross, and wider discount to book has me owning some of it as well. I also find interesting AMTG's 19% discount to book attractive although I was disappointed with their first dividend. It will be interesting to see what they can do now that they are fully invested.
    Dec 22, 2011. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross Still Likes Annaly Capital And So Should You [View article]
    Can you give me a quick list of the agency REITs? AGNC, NLY.... I think MTGE and AMTG are nearly 90% and above agency. Which ones am I missing? Thanks.
    Dec 22, 2011. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Wicked Reasons To Buy Mortgage REITs Today [View article]
    Have you guys looked at mREIT AMTG? New mREIT that IPO'd this summer. They should be announcing their first dividend soon and I think the stock could pop as it moves to the income producing screens. About 90% invested into agency MBS and 10% into non-agency. They doubled up their investments in October when PrimeX was showing weakness. Just about the same investment strategy and book value as MTGE. MTGE has already announced an 80 cents quarterly divy and selling for 18.52 ,whilst AMTG is dragging it's feet and has not at 15.82. Worth a look IMO.
    Dec 15, 2011. 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Buyback Won't Save Invesco [View article]
    HAVE YOU GUYS...sorry...have you guys looked at mREIT AMTG? New mREIT that IPO'd this summer. They should be announcing their first dividend soon and I think the stock could pop as it moves to the income producing screens. About 90% invested into agency MBS and 10% into non-agency. They doubled up their investments in October when PrimeX was showing weakness. Just about the same investment strategy and book value as MTGE. MTGE has already announced an 80 cents quarterly divy and selling for 18.52 ,whilst AMTG is dragging it's feet and has not at 15.82. Worth a look IMO.
    Dec 15, 2011. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From The Survival Of Citigroup [View article]
    Some calculate return on funds at risk. That's how I look at it. $18.00 strike less the $2.78 credit is $15.22. Worst case if C goes belly up the most you lose is $15.22 and therefor how much you have at risk. If C closes above $18.00 on expiration you keep the $2.78 and that is 18.3 return on $15.22. Since you are selling a put and this is not a covered call there are no dividends.

    Look at this chart on C. Looks like C did a great job in raising their tangible common equity as compared to others.

    http://bit.ly/vhQEAV
    Dec 9, 2011. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of American Airlines (AMR) are halted (yet again) after tripping up a circuit breaker. It's been almost non-stop on-again, off-again trading in AMR ever since its bankruptcy filing because as a Russell 1000 stock it's governed by a trading rule that fires up a 5-minute pause anytime the transaction price moves 10% or more in the preceding 5 minutes. Pundits call the rule "absurd" as they beg the SEC to change the logic for low-priced stocks. For the record, AMR is up 61% on the day or about $0.41. [View news story]
    I am seeing Junior bonds selling in the 10 to 20 levels (10 to 20 cents on the dollar). That indicates more than anything that the AMR common shares will end up worthless. I think yesterday was a gift to get out of the common with at least something. I would sell and take the tax loss.
    Dec 8, 2011. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT (ARR) announces an 8M share secondary offering, with an option to purchase up to 1.2M additional shares as warranted. Deutsche will act as the sole bookrunning manager of the offering. Shares -3.4% AH.  [View news story]
    Interesting that the mortgage REITs have been so beaten up but yet they still have no problems raising more capital to invest in mortgages. MTGE looks interesting. New mREIT selling for a 20%+ discount to book.
    Dec 7, 2011. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of American Airlines (AMR) are halted (yet again) after tripping up a circuit breaker. It's been almost non-stop on-again, off-again trading in AMR ever since its bankruptcy filing because as a Russell 1000 stock it's governed by a trading rule that fires up a 5-minute pause anytime the transaction price moves 10% or more in the preceding 5 minutes. Pundits call the rule "absurd" as they beg the SEC to change the logic for low-priced stocks. For the record, AMR is up 61% on the day or about $0.41. [View news story]
    The price action in AMR common is crazy. The common will end up worthless and the senior unsub exchange traded debt shares of AAR are selling for just 20 cents on the dollar. If the common had a chance of all getting any distribution the bonds would be trading nearer to full value. As I recall Delta actually rose to close to $4 per share in BK and still ended up worthless.

    Please Mr Market, go crazy with the MF bk shares I hold. lol!
    Dec 7, 2011. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Assured Guaranty (AGO +4.4%) tack on another tidy gain, a day after gaining 8.7% on the strength of an analyst upgrade. Today's actions could be tied in part to a ratings boost from S&P on securities insured by the firm.  [View news story]
    May have more to do with Wilbur Ross Buying 2.464 million shares in an insider buy. Posted last night.
    Dec 6, 2011. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From The Survival Of BAC [View article]
    I like the trade idea but in the same area I like C better.
    Current Market Price: $23.63
    Option: C Jan 2013 $20.00 Put (424 days to expiration)
    Current Premium (bid): $4.95
    Margin of Safety: 36.3%
    Total Return (if option expires worthless): 32.9%
    Look at BankRegData.com and compare C to BAC. C has much better numbers such as modified Texas ratio under 'asset quality'; BAC is 32.98, C is 20.04.(lower is better)
    http://bit.ly/vODS4w

    Don't get me wrong, I like BAC but think C is a bit better trade with less risk due to the better balance sheet and profitability. I also think C could profit internationally due to large depositors pulling out of large European banks and being attracted to a large international bank like C.

    Joe Eifrid
    Nov 27, 2011. 05:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Operating under a memorandum of understanding since May 2009, BofA (BAC) is working to convince regulators it has taken adequate steps to strengthen the bank. Sources say regulators have started to warn of a public enforcement action unless BofA makes more progress on MOU compliance.  [View news story]
    "Sources say regulators have started to warn of a public enforcement action unless BofA makes more progress on MOU compliance."

    I think they just did.
    Nov 22, 2011. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd be buying bank stocks "hand over fist," says banking analyst Dick Bove. "On a fundamental basis, it's almost impossible to believe that these stocks are not dramatically underpriced." As he sees it, investors should be taking advantage of the turmoil in Europe to buy, not sell every time the market "freaks out" over fears of the sovereign debt crisis spreading. His picks: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), State Street (STT) and US Bancorp (USB).  [View news story]
    Because of his job, Bove is restricted from buying BAC stock due to regulatory requirements. Easy for me to say but, I'd not be buying too if I was in his shoes.
    Nov 21, 2011. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd be buying bank stocks "hand over fist," says banking analyst Dick Bove. "On a fundamental basis, it's almost impossible to believe that these stocks are not dramatically underpriced." As he sees it, investors should be taking advantage of the turmoil in Europe to buy, not sell every time the market "freaks out" over fears of the sovereign debt crisis spreading. His picks: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), State Street (STT) and US Bancorp (USB).  [View news story]
    ABCW? Modified Texas ratio of 163. It's peers average 34. (Lower numbers are better). 11.6% of it's assets are NON-performing! Negative shareholder equity.
    I think I will pass even at 22 cents....

    Second thought....delisted and going to the pinks? With the games and manipulation that can be played there maybe they do get a bounce before they go under.
    Nov 19, 2011. 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd be buying bank stocks "hand over fist," says banking analyst Dick Bove. "On a fundamental basis, it's almost impossible to believe that these stocks are not dramatically underpriced." As he sees it, investors should be taking advantage of the turmoil in Europe to buy, not sell every time the market "freaks out" over fears of the sovereign debt crisis spreading. His picks: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), State Street (STT) and US Bancorp (USB).  [View news story]
    I find BAC and C very cheap as well. I sold puts on them yesterday. From a contrarian point of view, and as evidenced by the comments here, it is hard to see how these two could be hated more. BAC, and I believe C too, are selling at less than half of TANGIBLE book.
    Nov 19, 2011. 07:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
339 Comments
366 Likes