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Joe Eifrid  

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  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Not that many shares short. Yahoo showing 2.4% of float and a short ratio of less than 1, so plenty of volume to absorb. I think there is still much uncertainty about dividends going forward, and the analyst were not falling over themselves trying to upgrade. Hopefully the FOMC will have some helpful comments in their statement tomorrow.
    Jul 30, 2013. 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Scott, Most excellent analysis!! Thanks!
    Jul 29, 2013. 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    I think you are assuming the AMZN has a proven profitable business model on a level playing field basis. I would say that yet remains to be seen.

    The bike shop is a good example. Would you buy a bike unseen online. I don't know about you but I like to feel and touch a bike that I am about to buy. If I don't buy it from that small shop and use him as a showroom instead, he may not be around later when I need service. I got a friend that owns a bicycle shop. He is hurting. Yep, he is getting by, but he is even feeling the online competition. We were talking about about a year ago as I retired and sold my business and he was telling he would be pressed to find a buyer as it is just not profitable enough for someone to pay him to take over his inventory that has taken him decades to build.

    Can AMZN stream movies for $79 a year when NFLX finds it difficult at $96. Has AMZN proven that it can do it profitably plus offer the other services of prime? I don't think so. Web services? How profitable is that for AMZN? Does anyone really know. All we know is they have cut their prices something like seven times this year alone. That doesn't sound like dollars falling to the bottom line to me.

    As krk mentioned above, let's get a level playing field and see what happens. Interesting that now that they are having collect some sales tax revenues growth is slipping. I wonder how much revenues slowing growth the market will accept from AMZN and still let them get by with obscene valuations and no profits.
    Jul 29, 2013. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Looking at CYS selling here at about 82% of book, if AGNC comes in at $26 on book and selling for an equal to CYS valuation, couldn't we see prices drop to the lose 21's as well at 82% of the new book?

    I don't know if the street doesn't now have this one priced just about right. We still have the question of what will happen with the dividend. Less so, but a concern that will linger.

    Of course this is short term thinking. Longer term I think we are fine. I am just not going to hold additional shares for an earnings bounce.
    Jul 29, 2013. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    "aren't you just as much a thief as the customer you mentioned?"

    Sorry, I don't understand what you are saying here. How would I be a thief?

    As far as matching prices, I learned long ago trying to compete against Home Depot that i could not compete on price if I still wanted to offer extraordinary service levels. Are you crazy? Why would I want to operate at a loss like AMZN.

    Once I stated sticking to my knitting I did very well in their shadow growing revenues 300% over 10 years. Of course what helped is Home Depot could not survive on their low margins either and once they ran a significant number of mom and pops and smaller chains out of business they raised their gross profit from about 27-28% in 1998 to about 34% today.

    Let's make all things equal in that both the small company and AMZN have to give their investors a fair return on their investment through profits, and then let's see how well AMZN does. I think where you got the 'thief' idea. No, I disagree. What the customer stole from me was my employee's time in letting the customer hold and feel, and discuss the product features and getting our professional opinion of what the best tool is for them for the job. It is costly for me to offer that. I should not be considered to be AMAZON's showroom. Year's ago I had a customer bring a lawnmower in to my store to get some help with it. I asked them why they didn't just take it back to Home Depot where they bought it to get help. They replied "well you know they don't give that kind of service". Odd the customer thought that was my job, and it was a brand of mower we didn't even sell. We were just known as the place to buy and service higher quality lawnmowers not sold in the big boxes because they could not offer that level of service.

    I told the customer "no soup for you!!"
    Jul 29, 2013. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    AGNC and MTGE are selling for just about the same book value ratio.
    I own a little of both. I wonder if MTGE is the better bet going into AGNC's earnings??

    Just thinking out loud.
    Jul 29, 2013. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    I don't know if a revenue/employee comparison with walmart is fair. A big a part of the AMAZON business model is delivery. Should we include the delivery man hours and part of the delivery infrastructure?

    There has to be a cost to the convenience. AMZN thinks it can deliver to my home cheaper than what I can buy down the street picking it up myself. I don't know how long they can do that with out at some point having to charge for that service.

    I just noticed that over the last 2.5 years that AMZN has been investing $billions to build warehouses and technology that shareholder equity has gone up just $600 mil.

    Yesterday I was talking to one of my past employees that works at the store I sold. He mentioned that he had a customer Saturday that discussed the differences of several power tools we sell at the store. When he was done the customer thanked him for the info and said he was going to order online as it was cheaper. In my opinion that is theft. More and more I see people that think that is acceptable behavior and have no idea how unfair that is to the local store owner that pays that employee to provide excellent customer service.
    Jul 29, 2013. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    "During the past 12 months, Amazon was on a hiring binge, bringing total employment to 97,000 at the end of the second quarter, up 40% or 27,900 positions from a year-earlier, when 69,100 workers were aboard. And it seems the hiring juggernaut continues.

    The 40% rise in employment compares to a 22% increase in sales for the second quarter, so it’s little surprise Amazon lost money in the most recent period -- $7 million, to be exact – and is projecting an operating loss for the third quarter of between $65 million and $440 million. Sales per employee have fallen as the hiring binge continues."

    From an article on y-charts.
    27,900 Reasons For Amazon's Loss
    Jul 29, 2013. 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    The author wrote:
    " if it can maintain a 25% to 30% growth rate."

    I thought it has proven it can't. Guidance for 3Q is revenue growth of 12% to 24%.
    Jul 29, 2013. 08:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: Agency Security Fund Or Market Speculator? [View article]
    Interesting read. Thanks! I enjoy the debate with the articles written.
    Jul 25, 2013. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    I had two points I disagreed with in doing my research that appeared to be the basis for you liking this stock.

    First, the economy in Ft Wayne is not what I would say is robust. I can not find anything that would support that.

    Second, I challenge the 30% annualized long term growth rates you claim. That really caught my attention. Revenues just reported were down from last year. Also a claim that is unsupported by historical earnings, anything written, or heard tell of.

    TOFC may be a very fine company, and I hope you do well with it.
    Jul 25, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    If you are basing future price potential on your past results then you are, ahhh...
    Jul 25, 2013. 01:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Mortgage Investment: Was The Baby Thrown Out With The Bathwater? [View article]
    FWIW, I think the price to book is closer to .76.
    Jul 25, 2013. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras: Preparing For Some Bad News With A Paired Trade [View article]
    I have been under the assumption that the agency REITs would be hit harder to book than the non-agency (AMTG, MTGE, JMI,) and even less so to the more diversified mREITs such as MITT, IVR, and DX. Much that is written in commentary seems to be in reference to such names as AGNC, NLY and ARR. Hard to find much being written on non-agency.

    With a broad brush, am I wrong to think those less concentrated in agencies will suffer less damage to book? If not, with MITT selling at 76.4% of last reported book, and AGNC at 73.6%, would MITT be a safer bet? (BTW, DX is at 93%, IVR 80%)

    I know that is a hard question to answer, I guess more broadly I am looking for opinion on agency vs the more diversified. The non-agencies such as MTGE, AMTG, JMI having so little non-agency MBS I have been including them as agency when I compare issues.

    Great call on on the HTS/AGNC paired trade.

    CMO reports tonight. Let's see how they do.
    Jul 24, 2013. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 18.5% Dividend Payer Armour Residential REIT's Investments Are $3B+ Less After Q2 2013 [View article]
    Marty, I am happy that we have folks like David that are willing to share their thoughts with us little people - like you and me. I don't know what you mean by "legally", but at no time did I feel forced to buy ARR due to his commentary, nor do I feel like he was "pushing" this stock. The alternative would be for him to write about issues he has no interest in? I think he makes some good points about ARR while being balanced in his opinion. I own some JMI that is in the ARR family, as well as some ARR-a preferreds. YOU ARE being unfair to me if you think David should not be sharing thoughts about ARR with us. I value what he has to say.
    Jul 23, 2013. 12:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment