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Joe Eifrid

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  • Amazon.com Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    The author wrote:
    " if it can maintain a 25% to 30% growth rate."

    I thought it has proven it can't. Guidance for 3Q is revenue growth of 12% to 24%.
    Jul 29 08:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: Agency Security Fund Or Market Speculator? [View article]
    Interesting read. Thanks! I enjoy the debate with the articles written.
    Jul 25 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    I had two points I disagreed with in doing my research that appeared to be the basis for you liking this stock.

    First, the economy in Ft Wayne is not what I would say is robust. I can not find anything that would support that.

    Second, I challenge the 30% annualized long term growth rates you claim. That really caught my attention. Revenues just reported were down from last year. Also a claim that is unsupported by historical earnings, anything written, or heard tell of.

    TOFC may be a very fine company, and I hope you do well with it.
    Jul 25 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    If you are basing future price potential on your past results then you are, ahhh...
    Jul 25 01:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Mortgage Investment: Was The Baby Thrown Out With The Bathwater? [View article]
    FWIW, I think the price to book is closer to .76.
    Jul 25 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras: Preparing For Some Bad News With A Paired Trade [View article]
    I have been under the assumption that the agency REITs would be hit harder to book than the non-agency (AMTG, MTGE, JMI,) and even less so to the more diversified mREITs such as MITT, IVR, and DX. Much that is written in commentary seems to be in reference to such names as AGNC, NLY and ARR. Hard to find much being written on non-agency.

    With a broad brush, am I wrong to think those less concentrated in agencies will suffer less damage to book? If not, with MITT selling at 76.4% of last reported book, and AGNC at 73.6%, would MITT be a safer bet? (BTW, DX is at 93%, IVR 80%)

    I know that is a hard question to answer, I guess more broadly I am looking for opinion on agency vs the more diversified. The non-agencies such as MTGE, AMTG, JMI having so little non-agency MBS I have been including them as agency when I compare issues.

    Great call on on the HTS/AGNC paired trade.

    CMO reports tonight. Let's see how they do.
    Jul 24 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 18.5% Dividend Payer Armour Residential REIT's Investments Are $3B+ Less After Q2 2013 [View article]
    Marty, I am happy that we have folks like David that are willing to share their thoughts with us little people - like you and me. I don't know what you mean by "legally", but at no time did I feel forced to buy ARR due to his commentary, nor do I feel like he was "pushing" this stock. The alternative would be for him to write about issues he has no interest in? I think he makes some good points about ARR while being balanced in his opinion. I own some JMI that is in the ARR family, as well as some ARR-a preferreds. YOU ARE being unfair to me if you think David should not be sharing thoughts about ARR with us. I value what he has to say.
    Jul 23 12:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Purrrfect!! Thanks!
    Jul 22 10:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    FWIW, We get another look at a mREIT tomorrow with HTS reporting after the close. On June 18th the announced a 10 million share buyback. HTS is an agency REIT. It will be interesting to see how they stand up to CYS. HTS is selling for 82% of last reported book, a premium to AGNC's 76.4%. CYS is selling here for 85.3% of just released book value.
    Jul 22 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Do you guys have a link for FNMA MBS charts?

    TIA
    Jul 22 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    Positive fashion? Looks like Ft Wayne is experiencing the same thing that is happening nationally; an increase in low paying temporary and part time jobs at the expense of higher paying fulltime jobs.

    "As we have mentioned in prior Outlook articles, the relative decline in average annual pay in the Fort Wayne area over a number of years is a serious concern for the economic health of the metro area. "

    The author sums up his article; "We have certainly seen a slowdown in business expansion announcements in the Fort Wayne MSA as 2012 has progressed. It is not likely that the situation will change significantly until there is more clarity on the national level with respect to tax, federal deficit and health care issues."
    Jul 21 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    From the last earnings report;
    "Our total revenue, consisting of net interest income and noninterest income, was $7.8 million for the first quarter of 2013 compared to $7.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2012 and $7.4 million for the first quarter of 2012."

    This is not the report of a company projected to have a 30% LTGR.
    I did not see a catalyst mentioned that would drive growth.

    You also write of "a robust Fort Wayne economy that is expected to thrive over the next several years." Looking at building permits I don't see the evidence of robust growth. Unemployment above average. What do you see going on in Ft Wayne that would cause the economy to thrive?
    Jul 19 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    If that is indeed the case that they are reporting that as "projected" and not "past" I would say the report is wrong. Looking at the revenues for the last 3 years as per yahoo revenues are actually decreasing. The last 4 quarters have been flat. I just looked at the S&P capital IQ report and the numbers line up more with yahoo's historical numbers. No projections given.
    Jul 19 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    I don't see where you get the projected 5 year long term growth rate at 30.4%. Sure, for the last 5 years, but can they duplicate that going forward? I seriously doubt that. I also think that a small bank depending on the prospects of basically of one community, in this case Ft Wayne, is a bit risky. The one analyst tracking it sees earnings dipping a little next year, and revenue for this year being flat. (per yahoo)
    Jul 19 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    Let's say AMZN can grow revenues at 22% for the next 5 years. More than likely they can't as the 'law of big numbers' is catching up with them, but for this example 22%. Keep in mind revenues grew 27% in 2012, and this year projected to be 22.4%.

    That will give them revenues in year 5 of $173bil.(now $64bil) Last year they had no net earnings, but let's say they can get it up to 2%. That is $3.46 bil in net earnings. Again, I doubt they can do that but again...They currently have 455 mil shares outstanding. That will increase due to stock awards, but I will keep it the same 5 years from now.

    That will give them earnings per share of $7.60 per share. Now let's give them a more realistic p/e of 30. That produces a price per share of $228...a 25% discount to where the price is now.

    I think the above would be ideal conditions. I think their average revenue growth rate at year 5 will be closer to...14%. Knocking 2% off a year for 5 shows revenues in year 5 of $146 bil. using the same 2% net profit and a generous p/e of 20 leaves a PPS of $128.00.

    Anyway one looks at it, it is hard to justify today's PPS of $300+ even 5 years out...in my opinion. Perhaps they could get a higher net profit., but if they do I think revenues will suffer. Even if they can get their net profit to WMT's level of about 3.6%, in the last example the pps would be no more than about where the PPS is now 5 years from now and that would be with no additional hit to revenues that would likely happen with their higher price structure.
    Jul 19 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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336 Comments
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