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Joe Eifrid

 
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  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    If that is indeed the case that they are reporting that as "projected" and not "past" I would say the report is wrong. Looking at the revenues for the last 3 years as per yahoo revenues are actually decreasing. The last 4 quarters have been flat. I just looked at the S&P capital IQ report and the numbers line up more with yahoo's historical numbers. No projections given.
    Jul 19, 2013. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    I don't see where you get the projected 5 year long term growth rate at 30.4%. Sure, for the last 5 years, but can they duplicate that going forward? I seriously doubt that. I also think that a small bank depending on the prospects of basically of one community, in this case Ft Wayne, is a bit risky. The one analyst tracking it sees earnings dipping a little next year, and revenue for this year being flat. (per yahoo)
    Jul 19, 2013. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    Let's say AMZN can grow revenues at 22% for the next 5 years. More than likely they can't as the 'law of big numbers' is catching up with them, but for this example 22%. Keep in mind revenues grew 27% in 2012, and this year projected to be 22.4%.

    That will give them revenues in year 5 of $173bil.(now $64bil) Last year they had no net earnings, but let's say they can get it up to 2%. That is $3.46 bil in net earnings. Again, I doubt they can do that but again...They currently have 455 mil shares outstanding. That will increase due to stock awards, but I will keep it the same 5 years from now.

    That will give them earnings per share of $7.60 per share. Now let's give them a more realistic p/e of 30. That produces a price per share of $228...a 25% discount to where the price is now.

    I think the above would be ideal conditions. I think their average revenue growth rate at year 5 will be closer to...14%. Knocking 2% off a year for 5 shows revenues in year 5 of $146 bil. using the same 2% net profit and a generous p/e of 20 leaves a PPS of $128.00.

    Anyway one looks at it, it is hard to justify today's PPS of $300+ even 5 years out...in my opinion. Perhaps they could get a higher net profit., but if they do I think revenues will suffer. Even if they can get their net profit to WMT's level of about 3.6%, in the last example the pps would be no more than about where the PPS is now 5 years from now and that would be with no additional hit to revenues that would likely happen with their higher price structure.
    Jul 19, 2013. 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Scott, Thanks so much for the review and comments in regards to the CYS numbers. Listening to the CC as I type, and pretending I understand everything they are saying.
    Jul 18, 2013. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan cuts price targets across the mREIT (REM +1.2%) sector, but the move is one of catching up to the action rather than a call on prospects going forward. "We believe consensus forecasts for higher rates are already priced into current valuations." Those cut: NLY, WMC, AMTG, MFA. Apollo retains its Overweight rating (the others are Neutral) as it and Western Asset have additional hedges in place to mitigate losses on MBS. [View news story]
    I own some PSEC, and have owned for a couple of years. I haven't really looked at it closely recently. I would probably wait for a pullback to buy more. Right now I am waiting for the next earnings reports to add anything that is interest rate sensitive and see the affects to NAV. Too much of my port wrapped up in them as it is. I have concentrated my mREIT holdings around more diverse non-agency issues like IVR, MITT and PMT.
    Jul 17, 2013. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan cuts price targets across the mREIT (REM +1.2%) sector, but the move is one of catching up to the action rather than a call on prospects going forward. "We believe consensus forecasts for higher rates are already priced into current valuations." Those cut: NLY, WMC, AMTG, MFA. Apollo retains its Overweight rating (the others are Neutral) as it and Western Asset have additional hedges in place to mitigate losses on MBS. [View news story]
    Weird! The mREITs have sold off on fears of higher mortgages rates taking a hit on book values.

    "Our 2014 price targets for residential MREITs reflect a slight discount to NAV (0.95x) to account for heightened volatility and risk bias towards higher rates."

    NLY at $10.50? Last reported book is 15.19 as I recall. If the $10.50 represents 95% of NAV, they sure are looking for a huge hit to book. AMTG at $16? Last reported book is $21.72.
    Then JPM says this?

    "AMTG’s MBS portfolios did not decline as much as those of pure-play agency MREITs. Additionally, both WMC and AMTG have payer swaptions in addition to pay-fixed swaps, which we would expect mitigated some of the losses on Agency MBS."


    Jul 17, 2013. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    I thought this article about Alibaba entering AMZN's space was interesting. That could bring on a change in sentiment.

    http://bit.ly/11EueMN

    thoughts?
    Jul 16, 2013. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    "In the 16 years since going public AMZN has cumulative revenues of $245.5 trillion, "

    I think you need to recheck your numbers. I think it is closer to "billion".
    Jul 16, 2013. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +2.5%) crosses $300 for the first time and closes just slightly below the mark after ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +3.6%) reports same-store sales for clients relying on Amazon rose 30.6% Y/Y in June, better than May's disappointing 25.8% and even with April. eBay (EBAY +1.8%) clients posted 17.7% same-store growth, up from May's 16% but below April's 20.5% - auctions -17.2%, fixed-price sales +18.9%, Motors +27.8%. In a positive for Google (GOOG +1.7%), search ad-driven same-store sales rose 5.1% and shopping engine sales 10%; those numbers are better than May's -0.8% and +0.3%. Topeka notes Amazon faced tougher comps in June than May. [View news story]
    What could you buy with AMZN's current market cap of $138.5 bil
    AutoZone $15.6bil
    Delta Airlines 16.0 bil
    the Gap 20.6bil
    Whole foods 20.3bil
    Applied Materials 19.6bil
    Kroger 19.4 bil
    Macy's 19.0bil
    H&R Block 8.1 bil
    Combined!!
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 83.9 vs. 84.1 expected and 84.1 prior. [View news story]
    Just a reminder that this all depends on how many republicans or democrats they talked too for the survey as the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index indicated on July 3rd when SA posted this;

    ***The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to a new 5+ year high of -27.5 vs. -28.3 a week ago. The survey continues to be split among party lines, with Democrats' rating of the economy at a 12-year high of -13, but Republicans at -25.3. Independents need to pick a side - their view is a dim -34.7.***

    Perhaps the best way to do these surveys would be to identify an equal number of each party, and then take an average of the 3. It certainly appears party association would be relevant in indicating true overall consumer sentiment.
    Jul 12, 2013. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +2.5%) crosses $300 for the first time and closes just slightly below the mark after ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +3.6%) reports same-store sales for clients relying on Amazon rose 30.6% Y/Y in June, better than May's disappointing 25.8% and even with April. eBay (EBAY +1.8%) clients posted 17.7% same-store growth, up from May's 16% but below April's 20.5% - auctions -17.2%, fixed-price sales +18.9%, Motors +27.8%. In a positive for Google (GOOG +1.7%), search ad-driven same-store sales rose 5.1% and shopping engine sales 10%; those numbers are better than May's -0.8% and +0.3%. Topeka notes Amazon faced tougher comps in June than May. [View news story]
    Guidance from AMZN? Really? lol! AMZN guidance usually has such a big spread no one pays attention anymore. No, it will all depend on how they spin the "investing for the future" line, and how gullible the market eats it up.

    Check out the Alexa numbers. I know they don't tell the whole story, but they sure are lousy. Look at the 'time on site', 'page views', and 'search visits' metrics. Then compare trends with ebay.com.
    http://bit.ly/SNjlmK
    Jul 11, 2013. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kroger (KR) acquires Harris Teeter (HTSI) for $49.38 in a deal valued close to $2.5B. The deal price marks a 33.7% premium over Harris Teeter's closing price the day it announced it was exploring strategic alternatives. [View news story]
    That kills the merger rumors of grocery chains Big Star, southern states chain Piggly Wiggly, and Harris Teeter.

    Oh, BTW, they were going to name it 'Big Wiggly Teeters'.

    jk
    Jul 9, 2013. 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Upcoming Q2 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 1) [View article]
    FWIW, AGNC related MTGE - Pine River Capital filing a 13G yesterday showing they now own 5,433,513 shares (9.2% of company), up from 1,513,881 last quarter.
    Jul 9, 2013. 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to a new 5+ year high of -27.5 vs. -28.3 a week ago. The survey continues to be split among party lines, with Democrats' rating of the economy at a 12-year high of -13, but Republicans at -25.3. Independents need to pick a side - their view is a dim -34.7. [View news story]
    Just more evidence that democrats are out of touch with reality.

    lol! ...Just kidding. Interesting though. I think this is the first time I have seen this laid out along political lines. Interesting where the independents fall. This has me thinking about other consumer sentiment surveys. I had no idea that there was such a big difference between the parties as far as consumer sentiment. Of course I usually just look at the headline number.
    Jul 3, 2013. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross' $268B Total Return Fund (ETF version: BOND) suffered nearly $10B in outflows in Q2 - the most in at least 20 years. The money exited as a bet on duration had the fund delivering a quarterly loss of 3.6% - the worst result since inception in 1987 and against a 2.32% decline in the benchmark Barclays index (AGG). Gross has been busy reassuring investors about the merits of long-term Treasurys (TLT). History says he's occasionally wrong, but never for long. [View news story]
    I have always found it profitable when Gross buys into his funds to pick up a little. SA posted this June 22; FWIW,

    Bill Gross rejiggers some of his family money amid the bond market rout which hit Pimco's closed-end income funds particularly hard thanks to their tendency to trade at wide premiums to NAV. He picked up more than $4M worth of the Pimco Corporate & Income Strategy Fund (PCN) last week, and this week sold shares in the Pimco Municipal Income Fund II (PML) and the Pimco Income Strategy Fund (PFL). Last month, Gross unloaded a stake in another fund - PTY - when it was trading at a 21% premium to NAV.
    Jul 2, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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