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Joe Eifrid

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  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Scott, Thanks so much for the review and comments in regards to the CYS numbers. Listening to the CC as I type, and pretending I understand everything they are saying.
    Jul 18 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan cuts price targets across the mREIT (REM +1.2%) sector, but the move is one of catching up to the action rather than a call on prospects going forward. "We believe consensus forecasts for higher rates are already priced into current valuations." Those cut: NLY, WMC, AMTG, MFA. Apollo retains its Overweight rating (the others are Neutral) as it and Western Asset have additional hedges in place to mitigate losses on MBS. [View news story]
    I own some PSEC, and have owned for a couple of years. I haven't really looked at it closely recently. I would probably wait for a pullback to buy more. Right now I am waiting for the next earnings reports to add anything that is interest rate sensitive and see the affects to NAV. Too much of my port wrapped up in them as it is. I have concentrated my mREIT holdings around more diverse non-agency issues like IVR, MITT and PMT.
    Jul 17 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan cuts price targets across the mREIT (REM +1.2%) sector, but the move is one of catching up to the action rather than a call on prospects going forward. "We believe consensus forecasts for higher rates are already priced into current valuations." Those cut: NLY, WMC, AMTG, MFA. Apollo retains its Overweight rating (the others are Neutral) as it and Western Asset have additional hedges in place to mitigate losses on MBS. [View news story]
    Weird! The mREITs have sold off on fears of higher mortgages rates taking a hit on book values.

    "Our 2014 price targets for residential MREITs reflect a slight discount to NAV (0.95x) to account for heightened volatility and risk bias towards higher rates."

    NLY at $10.50? Last reported book is 15.19 as I recall. If the $10.50 represents 95% of NAV, they sure are looking for a huge hit to book. AMTG at $16? Last reported book is $21.72.
    Then JPM says this?

    "AMTG’s MBS portfolios did not decline as much as those of pure-play agency MREITs. Additionally, both WMC and AMTG have payer swaptions in addition to pay-fixed swaps, which we would expect mitigated some of the losses on Agency MBS."


    Jul 17 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    I thought this article about Alibaba entering AMZN's space was interesting. That could bring on a change in sentiment.

    http://bit.ly/11EueMN

    thoughts?
    Jul 16 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    "In the 16 years since going public AMZN has cumulative revenues of $245.5 trillion, "

    I think you need to recheck your numbers. I think it is closer to "billion".
    Jul 16 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +2.5%) crosses $300 for the first time and closes just slightly below the mark after ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +3.6%) reports same-store sales for clients relying on Amazon rose 30.6% Y/Y in June, better than May's disappointing 25.8% and even with April. eBay (EBAY +1.8%) clients posted 17.7% same-store growth, up from May's 16% but below April's 20.5% - auctions -17.2%, fixed-price sales +18.9%, Motors +27.8%. In a positive for Google (GOOG +1.7%), search ad-driven same-store sales rose 5.1% and shopping engine sales 10%; those numbers are better than May's -0.8% and +0.3%. Topeka notes Amazon faced tougher comps in June than May. [View news story]
    What could you buy with AMZN's current market cap of $138.5 bil
    AutoZone $15.6bil
    Delta Airlines 16.0 bil
    the Gap 20.6bil
    Whole foods 20.3bil
    Applied Materials 19.6bil
    Kroger 19.4 bil
    Macy's 19.0bil
    H&R Block 8.1 bil
    Combined!!
    Jul 12 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 83.9 vs. 84.1 expected and 84.1 prior. [View news story]
    Just a reminder that this all depends on how many republicans or democrats they talked too for the survey as the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index indicated on July 3rd when SA posted this;

    ***The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to a new 5+ year high of -27.5 vs. -28.3 a week ago. The survey continues to be split among party lines, with Democrats' rating of the economy at a 12-year high of -13, but Republicans at -25.3. Independents need to pick a side - their view is a dim -34.7.***

    Perhaps the best way to do these surveys would be to identify an equal number of each party, and then take an average of the 3. It certainly appears party association would be relevant in indicating true overall consumer sentiment.
    Jul 12 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +2.5%) crosses $300 for the first time and closes just slightly below the mark after ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +3.6%) reports same-store sales for clients relying on Amazon rose 30.6% Y/Y in June, better than May's disappointing 25.8% and even with April. eBay (EBAY +1.8%) clients posted 17.7% same-store growth, up from May's 16% but below April's 20.5% - auctions -17.2%, fixed-price sales +18.9%, Motors +27.8%. In a positive for Google (GOOG +1.7%), search ad-driven same-store sales rose 5.1% and shopping engine sales 10%; those numbers are better than May's -0.8% and +0.3%. Topeka notes Amazon faced tougher comps in June than May. [View news story]
    Guidance from AMZN? Really? lol! AMZN guidance usually has such a big spread no one pays attention anymore. No, it will all depend on how they spin the "investing for the future" line, and how gullible the market eats it up.

    Check out the Alexa numbers. I know they don't tell the whole story, but they sure are lousy. Look at the 'time on site', 'page views', and 'search visits' metrics. Then compare trends with ebay.com.
    http://bit.ly/SNjlmK
    Jul 11 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kroger (KR) acquires Harris Teeter (HTSI) for $49.38 in a deal valued close to $2.5B. The deal price marks a 33.7% premium over Harris Teeter's closing price the day it announced it was exploring strategic alternatives. [View news story]
    That kills the merger rumors of grocery chains Big Star, southern states chain Piggly Wiggly, and Harris Teeter.

    Oh, BTW, they were going to name it 'Big Wiggly Teeters'.

    jk
    Jul 9 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Upcoming Q2 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 1) [View article]
    FWIW, AGNC related MTGE - Pine River Capital filing a 13G yesterday showing they now own 5,433,513 shares (9.2% of company), up from 1,513,881 last quarter.
    Jul 9 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to a new 5+ year high of -27.5 vs. -28.3 a week ago. The survey continues to be split among party lines, with Democrats' rating of the economy at a 12-year high of -13, but Republicans at -25.3. Independents need to pick a side - their view is a dim -34.7. [View news story]
    Just more evidence that democrats are out of touch with reality.

    lol! ...Just kidding. Interesting though. I think this is the first time I have seen this laid out along political lines. Interesting where the independents fall. This has me thinking about other consumer sentiment surveys. I had no idea that there was such a big difference between the parties as far as consumer sentiment. Of course I usually just look at the headline number.
    Jul 3 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross' $268B Total Return Fund (ETF version: BOND) suffered nearly $10B in outflows in Q2 - the most in at least 20 years. The money exited as a bet on duration had the fund delivering a quarterly loss of 3.6% - the worst result since inception in 1987 and against a 2.32% decline in the benchmark Barclays index (AGG). Gross has been busy reassuring investors about the merits of long-term Treasurys (TLT). History says he's occasionally wrong, but never for long. [View news story]
    I have always found it profitable when Gross buys into his funds to pick up a little. SA posted this June 22; FWIW,

    Bill Gross rejiggers some of his family money amid the bond market rout which hit Pimco's closed-end income funds particularly hard thanks to their tendency to trade at wide premiums to NAV. He picked up more than $4M worth of the Pimco Corporate & Income Strategy Fund (PCN) last week, and this week sold shares in the Pimco Municipal Income Fund II (PML) and the Pimco Income Strategy Fund (PFL). Last month, Gross unloaded a stake in another fund - PTY - when it was trading at a 21% premium to NAV.
    Jul 2 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's hard to buy something down 80%," writes Mebane Faber, but it may not be a bad time to do just that. The average 3-year return since 1920 when buying a sector lower by 80% from a peak is 172%, according to his research - think tech in 2002, homebuilders in 2009, and junior gold miners (GDXJ) today (gold miners GDX or RING are off nearly that amount). The returns are similarly enticing for entire industries and countries - think Greece (GREK) today. [View news story]
    "Bought some physical silver yesterday"

    Curious as to what kind of premium you paid? I own both physical and paper, but with paper prices being what they are I have a hard time justifying buying physical here.
    Jun 27 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) gained 2.4% AH following an 11% cut in its quarterly dividend to $0.80/share, an annualized yield of 15.8% based on yesterday's close. Previous: SIster company American Capital Agency cuts dividend 16%. (PR[View news story]
    "an annualized yield of 15.8% based on yesterday's close."

    Another way of looking at that...Wait a week till after ex-div and the annualized yield jumps to 16.4%.
    Jun 19 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Powerful Catalyst For Annaly And mREITs Wednesday [View article]
    The Fed needs to get more private capital coming into mortgages if the treasury wants to wind down Fannie and Freddie. To do this they need to let the spreads widen. I could see them "tapering" off of MBS purchases and putting the pedal to the metal on treasury buys. 4 to 5% mortgages are not going to kill the housing recovery. I think the Fed meeting could be a catalyst for a recovery of the mREITs, but for different reasons. Under your scenario wouldn't we be back to tighter spreads and possibly some recovery in book values? I think I would rather see the wider spreads and a hit to book. The hit to book values may be priced in. Now all we need is some assurance of wider spreads and less prepayments to see some uncertainty about future dividends removed.
    Jun 17 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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