Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Joe Eifrid  

View Joe Eifrid's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    FWIW, We get another look at a mREIT tomorrow with HTS reporting after the close. On June 18th the announced a 10 million share buyback. HTS is an agency REIT. It will be interesting to see how they stand up to CYS. HTS is selling for 82% of last reported book, a premium to AGNC's 76.4%. CYS is selling here for 85.3% of just released book value.
    Jul 22, 2013. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Do you guys have a link for FNMA MBS charts?

    TIA
    Jul 22, 2013. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    Positive fashion? Looks like Ft Wayne is experiencing the same thing that is happening nationally; an increase in low paying temporary and part time jobs at the expense of higher paying fulltime jobs.

    "As we have mentioned in prior Outlook articles, the relative decline in average annual pay in the Fort Wayne area over a number of years is a serious concern for the economic health of the metro area. "

    The author sums up his article; "We have certainly seen a slowdown in business expansion announcements in the Fort Wayne MSA as 2012 has progressed. It is not likely that the situation will change significantly until there is more clarity on the national level with respect to tax, federal deficit and health care issues."
    Jul 21, 2013. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    From the last earnings report;
    "Our total revenue, consisting of net interest income and noninterest income, was $7.8 million for the first quarter of 2013 compared to $7.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2012 and $7.4 million for the first quarter of 2012."

    This is not the report of a company projected to have a 30% LTGR.
    I did not see a catalyst mentioned that would drive growth.

    You also write of "a robust Fort Wayne economy that is expected to thrive over the next several years." Looking at building permits I don't see the evidence of robust growth. Unemployment above average. What do you see going on in Ft Wayne that would cause the economy to thrive?
    Jul 19, 2013. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    If that is indeed the case that they are reporting that as "projected" and not "past" I would say the report is wrong. Looking at the revenues for the last 3 years as per yahoo revenues are actually decreasing. The last 4 quarters have been flat. I just looked at the S&P capital IQ report and the numbers line up more with yahoo's historical numbers. No projections given.
    Jul 19, 2013. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Financial: Tower Of Profits In Ft. Wayne, Indiana [View article]
    I don't see where you get the projected 5 year long term growth rate at 30.4%. Sure, for the last 5 years, but can they duplicate that going forward? I seriously doubt that. I also think that a small bank depending on the prospects of basically of one community, in this case Ft Wayne, is a bit risky. The one analyst tracking it sees earnings dipping a little next year, and revenue for this year being flat. (per yahoo)
    Jul 19, 2013. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    Let's say AMZN can grow revenues at 22% for the next 5 years. More than likely they can't as the 'law of big numbers' is catching up with them, but for this example 22%. Keep in mind revenues grew 27% in 2012, and this year projected to be 22.4%.

    That will give them revenues in year 5 of $173bil.(now $64bil) Last year they had no net earnings, but let's say they can get it up to 2%. That is $3.46 bil in net earnings. Again, I doubt they can do that but again...They currently have 455 mil shares outstanding. That will increase due to stock awards, but I will keep it the same 5 years from now.

    That will give them earnings per share of $7.60 per share. Now let's give them a more realistic p/e of 30. That produces a price per share of $228...a 25% discount to where the price is now.

    I think the above would be ideal conditions. I think their average revenue growth rate at year 5 will be closer to...14%. Knocking 2% off a year for 5 shows revenues in year 5 of $146 bil. using the same 2% net profit and a generous p/e of 20 leaves a PPS of $128.00.

    Anyway one looks at it, it is hard to justify today's PPS of $300+ even 5 years out...in my opinion. Perhaps they could get a higher net profit., but if they do I think revenues will suffer. Even if they can get their net profit to WMT's level of about 3.6%, in the last example the pps would be no more than about where the PPS is now 5 years from now and that would be with no additional hit to revenues that would likely happen with their higher price structure.
    Jul 19, 2013. 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q2 2013 Book Value Projection (As Of June 30, 2013) [View article]
    Scott, Thanks so much for the review and comments in regards to the CYS numbers. Listening to the CC as I type, and pretending I understand everything they are saying.
    Jul 18, 2013. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan cuts price targets across the mREIT (REM +1.2%) sector, but the move is one of catching up to the action rather than a call on prospects going forward. "We believe consensus forecasts for higher rates are already priced into current valuations." Those cut: NLY, WMC, AMTG, MFA. Apollo retains its Overweight rating (the others are Neutral) as it and Western Asset have additional hedges in place to mitigate losses on MBS. [View news story]
    I own some PSEC, and have owned for a couple of years. I haven't really looked at it closely recently. I would probably wait for a pullback to buy more. Right now I am waiting for the next earnings reports to add anything that is interest rate sensitive and see the affects to NAV. Too much of my port wrapped up in them as it is. I have concentrated my mREIT holdings around more diverse non-agency issues like IVR, MITT and PMT.
    Jul 17, 2013. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan cuts price targets across the mREIT (REM +1.2%) sector, but the move is one of catching up to the action rather than a call on prospects going forward. "We believe consensus forecasts for higher rates are already priced into current valuations." Those cut: NLY, WMC, AMTG, MFA. Apollo retains its Overweight rating (the others are Neutral) as it and Western Asset have additional hedges in place to mitigate losses on MBS. [View news story]
    Weird! The mREITs have sold off on fears of higher mortgages rates taking a hit on book values.

    "Our 2014 price targets for residential MREITs reflect a slight discount to NAV (0.95x) to account for heightened volatility and risk bias towards higher rates."

    NLY at $10.50? Last reported book is 15.19 as I recall. If the $10.50 represents 95% of NAV, they sure are looking for a huge hit to book. AMTG at $16? Last reported book is $21.72.
    Then JPM says this?

    "AMTG’s MBS portfolios did not decline as much as those of pure-play agency MREITs. Additionally, both WMC and AMTG have payer swaptions in addition to pay-fixed swaps, which we would expect mitigated some of the losses on Agency MBS."


    Jul 17, 2013. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    I thought this article about Alibaba entering AMZN's space was interesting. That could bring on a change in sentiment.

    http://bit.ly/11EueMN

    thoughts?
    Jul 16, 2013. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    "In the 16 years since going public AMZN has cumulative revenues of $245.5 trillion, "

    I think you need to recheck your numbers. I think it is closer to "billion".
    Jul 16, 2013. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +2.5%) crosses $300 for the first time and closes just slightly below the mark after ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +3.6%) reports same-store sales for clients relying on Amazon rose 30.6% Y/Y in June, better than May's disappointing 25.8% and even with April. eBay (EBAY +1.8%) clients posted 17.7% same-store growth, up from May's 16% but below April's 20.5% - auctions -17.2%, fixed-price sales +18.9%, Motors +27.8%. In a positive for Google (GOOG +1.7%), search ad-driven same-store sales rose 5.1% and shopping engine sales 10%; those numbers are better than May's -0.8% and +0.3%. Topeka notes Amazon faced tougher comps in June than May. [View news story]
    What could you buy with AMZN's current market cap of $138.5 bil
    AutoZone $15.6bil
    Delta Airlines 16.0 bil
    the Gap 20.6bil
    Whole foods 20.3bil
    Applied Materials 19.6bil
    Kroger 19.4 bil
    Macy's 19.0bil
    H&R Block 8.1 bil
    Combined!!
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 83.9 vs. 84.1 expected and 84.1 prior. [View news story]
    Just a reminder that this all depends on how many republicans or democrats they talked too for the survey as the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index indicated on July 3rd when SA posted this;

    ***The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to a new 5+ year high of -27.5 vs. -28.3 a week ago. The survey continues to be split among party lines, with Democrats' rating of the economy at a 12-year high of -13, but Republicans at -25.3. Independents need to pick a side - their view is a dim -34.7.***

    Perhaps the best way to do these surveys would be to identify an equal number of each party, and then take an average of the 3. It certainly appears party association would be relevant in indicating true overall consumer sentiment.
    Jul 12, 2013. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +2.5%) crosses $300 for the first time and closes just slightly below the mark after ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +3.6%) reports same-store sales for clients relying on Amazon rose 30.6% Y/Y in June, better than May's disappointing 25.8% and even with April. eBay (EBAY +1.8%) clients posted 17.7% same-store growth, up from May's 16% but below April's 20.5% - auctions -17.2%, fixed-price sales +18.9%, Motors +27.8%. In a positive for Google (GOOG +1.7%), search ad-driven same-store sales rose 5.1% and shopping engine sales 10%; those numbers are better than May's -0.8% and +0.3%. Topeka notes Amazon faced tougher comps in June than May. [View news story]
    Guidance from AMZN? Really? lol! AMZN guidance usually has such a big spread no one pays attention anymore. No, it will all depend on how they spin the "investing for the future" line, and how gullible the market eats it up.

    Check out the Alexa numbers. I know they don't tell the whole story, but they sure are lousy. Look at the 'time on site', 'page views', and 'search visits' metrics. Then compare trends with ebay.com.
    http://bit.ly/SNjlmK
    Jul 11, 2013. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
343 Comments
375 Likes