Housing: 1.2 Million Fewer Households, More Overcrowding [View article]
The average size household in 1950 was 3.38. It was 3.68 in 1940. Today it is about 2.57 people per household. If we still had 3.38 folks per household there would be a need for 15 to 17 million less households than what we have today. Think about how much that contributed to growth in the boomer years. As the economy slows households may start to get larger again as many will no longer be able to afford to live on their own. I can vision large subdivisions becoming ghost towns.
When banks have routinely filed falsified mortgage promissory notes, with tens of thousands of fraudulent documents filed in tens of thousands of cases - "rampant, self-evident, easy to prosecute" fraud - what does it take to get prosecutions? Barry Ritholtz: "It is shocking to watch the U.S... slip into a banana republic." [View news story]
Is Barry Ritholtz whining about this again? Move on folks, nothing criminal here. Everything can be explained by an insufficient education system, laziness, greed, and an incompetent government. Usually Ritholtz is a sharp guy. Wonder why he is falling for the poor borrower/poor me victimization scheme? I guess because it is popular and gives him some public face time here on SA and elsewhere. He would make a great politician.
"We have recently made the business decision to not carry Amazon tablets and eReaders beyond our existing inventory and purchase commitments," reads an internal Wal-Mart (WMT) memo as it joins Target in no longer selling the Kindle products that edge Amazon (AMZN) further into their territory. [View news story]
I disagree. AMZN may be the online champ but Walmart will remain king of brick and mortar. With AMZN having just a 1% operating margin they have little leeway for error. They are actually projected to show a loss for this quarter. How much longer is WallStreet going to let them use "we are building out our infrastructure" excuse for poor performance. The AMZN monster may turn out to be just another big dinosaur. Big sales little to no profits is just trading dollars in the end.
Why the market sets such a low bar for such a high priced stock eludes me. APPL has something like a oprating margin of 36% and selling for a forward pe of 14. Then you have AMZN with operating margin of 1% selling with a forward PE of over 100. Where is the connection? If AAPL was selling at the same forward PE as AMZN it would be priced at...get this...$5764 per share. Amazing!!
Hmmm...what would AMZN sell for at the same projected PE of AAPL? $31.71 Yikes!
The economy should hit its stride late into next year, says Moody's Analytic's Mark Zandi. He's forecasting 4% growth into 2014, citing continued strength in U.S. corporations due to cost cuts and better profit margins. All we need to do is "nail down those fiscal issues," Zandi says. “By 2014-15, the surprise is going to be how strong the economy is growing.” [View news story]
Sorry, I don't see the connection. Just because US corporations cut their cost and have better profit margins, how does that add to GDP? Seems to me part of cutting cost would be laying off workers. Laid off workers tend not to go on spending sprees. Less consumer sales would tend to put a dent into GDP.
Actually the "prior" was not 51.6. The last 6 months wee corrected earlier this week. No nobody seemed to have noticed.
But first here is the headline from December: Chicago PMI Beats, New Orders Up
Live Trading News-Dec 29, 2012 The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index PMI for the month of December rose from 50.4 in November to 51.6, the 3rd straight monthly increase ...
Pretty positive headline...
Here are the corrected numbers. PMI dropped every month since July. Perhaps January will be corrected too. (Changes all revised figures for NAPM-Chicago index and new orders component after ISM-Chicago issues corrected data) Jan 28 (Reuters) - The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago on Monday released corrected annual revisions to its index of Midwest business activity. The NAPM and New Orders figures were corrected. The revised figures for the past six months follow: Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July NAPM-Chicago 50.0 50.2 50.7 50.9 54.1 54.6
Going over the fiscal cliff "looks like where we're headed," says Senate Majority Leader Reid. S&P 500 losses accelerate, -0.7%. [View news story]
So Reid has lost control of the Senate? He can't get a bill through. Isn't that what the media was reporting about Boehner. Obama failed in leadership by insisting that taxes raise on the rich when the house was willing to give him nearly the same revenues in limiting tax deductions.
In charging into the housing debate, the Fed risks politicizing itself, David Reilly writes. William Dudley called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth, and a recent white paper went beyond the Fed's already unconventional policies. Reaction to talk of a new government housing policy (I, II) underscored how perceptions of Fed independence already have eroded. [View news story]
"called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth"
Geesh! Like 4% 30 years loans are not good enough?? Government intervention in the housing industry got us into the problem in the first place.
Senator Charles Schumer and four other Democratic senators have asked the FTC to probe record profits at oil refiners, with Schumer yesterday saying there's evidence that "illegal practices...could be punishing drivers." He believes refiners may be fixing prices by cutting back on stockpiles. [View news story]
Refiners? Profit margins of less than 5%. Typical liberal ploy to pretend you care in headlines and sound bites.
Annaly (NLY -0.5%) investors may want to pay attention to the meltdown in the shares of Chimera Investment (CIM -8.7%) on the back of an SA article suggesting the firm (which hasn't filed an earnings release or financial information since 2011 Q3) could be headed towards a $0 dividend and/or delisting. Annaly owns a sizable chunk of Chimera and manages the company through a subsidiary. [View news story]
The article was stupid. The author plotted the recent decreasing dividends on a calendar a drew a straight line to hit zero sometime in 2013. You could do the same thing with the AAPL chart. The author wrote; "At the rate of decline experienced in the Chimera' dividend for the first two quarters of 2012, the company will not be able to pay a dividend by the second quarter of 2013. " That is so stupid!
Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
During the Clinton years we had an economy on steroids. We had the baby-boomers hitting their most productive years. The boomers were also hitting the age where they on average build or occupy their most expensive home. The opposite is true today. The boomers are becoming net consumers of goods and services and will weigh on the economy as they downsize.
Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
"The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. "
That should read "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law raising taxes for married couples earning over $250k, and individuals earning more than $200k."
Or, "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law sucking $X bil out of the economy next year by raising taxes for married couples earning over $250k, and..."
More on the fiscal cliff talks: The President's opening bid - delivered this afternoon by Tim Geithner - calls for a $1.6T tax increase, a $50B economic-stimulus program, and delivering to the WH the power to raise the federal debt limit without congressional approval. It's a "step backward," says Mitch McConnell. It sounds more like what it's described as: An opening bid. [View news story]
"What’s with all the Bernanke bashing?" Gregory Mankiw asks. He's assailed from the left and the right, and received a 95% disapproval rating in a CNBC poll. Yet Bernanke has shepherded the economy through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and has inflation pretty much where he wants it. [View news story]
Obviously Mankiw has been insufficiently educated. Bernanke took the helm of the Feral Reserve in February 2006. Bernanke has two mandates - stable prices and full employment. Has Mankin looked at the charts on those since? Also look at the Fed's balance sheet since taking office. I thought Greenspan was bad!
An aide to Gov. Rick Perry didn't quite get around to apologizing for his boss, but says the GOP nominee hopeful was "passionate" in a reference to the Fed chairman getting treated in an "ugly" manner in Texas. The Fed didn't comment on the flareup. [View news story]
D in economics? Obviously the economist have been wrong about everything so if Perry got 'D' it must he is taking a 'contrarian' position and that would be great for the Country. He has my support!
A breath of economic exuberance: Union Pacific (UNP +1.4%) CEO James Young says his company has seen no evidence of a slowdown, and believes second-half freight shipments will exceed first-half results. UNP and other railroads lifting transports (IYT +0.4%): KSU +2.8%, CSX +1.2%, NSC +1.2%. [View news story]
Liars? UNP Railfax report Year to date up 4.1% Quarter to date up 3.3% 4 week rolling average up 2.7% Current week compared to 2010 - up 1.4%
Housing: 1.2 Million Fewer Households, More Overcrowding [View article]
When banks have routinely filed falsified mortgage promissory notes, with tens of thousands of fraudulent documents filed in tens of thousands of cases - "rampant, self-evident, easy to prosecute" fraud - what does it take to get prosecutions? Barry Ritholtz: "It is shocking to watch the U.S... slip into a banana republic." [View news story]
"We have recently made the business decision to not carry Amazon tablets and eReaders beyond our existing inventory and purchase commitments," reads an internal Wal-Mart (WMT) memo as it joins Target in no longer selling the Kindle products that edge Amazon (AMZN) further into their territory. [View news story]
Why the market sets such a low bar for such a high priced stock eludes me. APPL has something like a oprating margin of 36% and selling for a forward pe of 14. Then you have AMZN with operating margin of 1% selling with a forward PE of over 100. Where is the connection? If AAPL was selling at the same forward PE as AMZN it would be priced at...get this...$5764 per share. Amazing!!
Hmmm...what would AMZN sell for at the same projected PE of AAPL? $31.71 Yikes!
The economy should hit its stride late into next year, says Moody's Analytic's Mark Zandi. He's forecasting 4% growth into 2014, citing continued strength in U.S. corporations due to cost cuts and better profit margins. All we need to do is "nail down those fiscal issues," Zandi says. “By 2014-15, the surprise is going to be how strong the economy is growing.” [View news story]
Jan. Chicago PMI: 55.6 vs. 50.5 expected, 51.6 prior. [View news story]
But first here is the headline from December:
Chicago PMI Beats, New Orders Up
Live Trading News-Dec 29, 2012
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index PMI for the month of December rose from 50.4 in November to 51.6, the 3rd straight monthly increase ...
Pretty positive headline...
Here are the corrected numbers. PMI dropped every month since July. Perhaps January will be corrected too.
(Changes all revised figures for NAPM-Chicago index and new orders component after ISM-Chicago issues corrected data) Jan 28 (Reuters) - The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago on Monday released corrected annual revisions to its index of Midwest business activity. The NAPM and New Orders figures were corrected. The revised figures for the past six months follow: Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July NAPM-Chicago 50.0 50.2 50.7 50.9 54.1 54.6
Going over the fiscal cliff "looks like where we're headed," says Senate Majority Leader Reid. S&P 500 losses accelerate, -0.7%. [View news story]
In charging into the housing debate, the Fed risks politicizing itself, David Reilly writes. William Dudley called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth, and a recent white paper went beyond the Fed's already unconventional policies. Reaction to talk of a new government housing policy (I, II) underscored how perceptions of Fed independence already have eroded. [View news story]
Geesh! Like 4% 30 years loans are not good enough?? Government intervention in the housing industry got us into the problem in the first place.
Senator Charles Schumer and four other Democratic senators have asked the FTC to probe record profits at oil refiners, with Schumer yesterday saying there's evidence that "illegal practices...could be punishing drivers." He believes refiners may be fixing prices by cutting back on stockpiles. [View news story]
Annaly (NLY -0.5%) investors may want to pay attention to the meltdown in the shares of Chimera Investment (CIM -8.7%) on the back of an SA article suggesting the firm (which hasn't filed an earnings release or financial information since 2011 Q3) could be headed towards a $0 dividend and/or delisting. Annaly owns a sizable chunk of Chimera and manages the company through a subsidiary. [View news story]
The author wrote;
"At the rate of decline experienced in the Chimera' dividend for the first two quarters of 2012, the company will not be able to pay a dividend by the second quarter of 2013. "
That is so stupid!
Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
The opposite is true today. The boomers are becoming net consumers of goods and services and will weigh on the economy as they downsize.
Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
That should read "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law raising taxes for married couples earning over $250k, and individuals earning more than $200k."
Or, "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law sucking $X bil out of the economy next year by raising taxes for married couples earning over $250k, and..."
More on the fiscal cliff talks: The President's opening bid - delivered this afternoon by Tim Geithner - calls for a $1.6T tax increase, a $50B economic-stimulus program, and delivering to the WH the power to raise the federal debt limit without congressional approval. It's a "step backward," says Mitch McConnell. It sounds more like what it's described as: An opening bid. [View news story]
"What’s with all the Bernanke bashing?" Gregory Mankiw asks. He's assailed from the left and the right, and received a 95% disapproval rating in a CNBC poll. Yet Bernanke has shepherded the economy through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and has inflation pretty much where he wants it. [View news story]
Bernanke deserves to be bashed, and bashed often.
An aide to Gov. Rick Perry didn't quite get around to apologizing for his boss, but says the GOP nominee hopeful was "passionate" in a reference to the Fed chairman getting treated in an "ugly" manner in Texas. The Fed didn't comment on the flareup. [View news story]
A breath of economic exuberance: Union Pacific (UNP +1.4%) CEO James Young says his company has seen no evidence of a slowdown, and believes second-half freight shipments will exceed first-half results. UNP and other railroads lifting transports (IYT +0.4%): KSU +2.8%, CSX +1.2%, NSC +1.2%. [View news story]
UNP Railfax report
Year to date up 4.1%
Quarter to date up 3.3%
4 week rolling average up 2.7%
Current week compared to 2010 - up 1.4%
Looks like the trend is slowing to me.
railfax.transmatch.com/