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Joe Eifrid

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  • 18.5% Dividend Payer Armour Residential REIT's Investments Are $3B+ Less After Q2 2013 [View article]
    Marty, I am happy that we have folks like David that are willing to share their thoughts with us little people - like you and me. I don't know what you mean by "legally", but at no time did I feel forced to buy ARR due to his commentary, nor do I feel like he was "pushing" this stock. The alternative would be for him to write about issues he has no interest in? I think he makes some good points about ARR while being balanced in his opinion. I own some JMI that is in the ARR family, as well as some ARR-a preferreds. YOU ARE being unfair to me if you think David should not be sharing thoughts about ARR with us. I value what he has to say.
    Jul 23 12:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Misguided Diagnosis Of America's Economic Problems [View article]
    Thanks for the link to Bill Gross's commentary. I found I share most of the same thoughts. That may find me in the minority here but I have to say I agree with him more than I do you, James.

    Interesting to read a counter argument though. Thanks!
    Jun 14 09:18 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: 1.2 Million Fewer Households, More Overcrowding [View article]
    The average size household in 1950 was 3.38. It was 3.68 in 1940. Today it is about 2.57 people per household. If we still had 3.38 folks per household there would be a need for 15 to 17 million less households than what we have today. Think about how much that contributed to growth in the boomer years. As the economy slows households may start to get larger again as many will no longer be able to afford to live on their own. I can vision large subdivisions becoming ghost towns.
    Apr 8 10:31 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When banks have routinely filed falsified mortgage promissory notes, with tens of thousands of fraudulent documents filed in tens of thousands of cases - "rampant, self-evident, easy to prosecute" fraud - what does it take to get prosecutions? Barry Ritholtz: "It is shocking to watch the U.S... slip into a banana republic."  [View news story]
    Is Barry Ritholtz whining about this again? Move on folks, nothing criminal here. Everything can be explained by an insufficient education system, laziness, greed, and an incompetent government. Usually Ritholtz is a sharp guy. Wonder why he is falling for the poor borrower/poor me victimization scheme? I guess because it is popular and gives him some public face time here on SA and elsewhere. He would make a great politician.
    Dec 23 07:47 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We have recently made the business decision to not carry Amazon tablets and eReaders beyond our existing inventory and purchase commitments," reads an internal Wal-Mart (WMT) memo as it joins Target in no longer selling the Kindle products that edge Amazon (AMZN) further into their territory. [View news story]
    I disagree. AMZN may be the online champ but Walmart will remain king of brick and mortar. With AMZN having just a 1% operating margin they have little leeway for error. They are actually projected to show a loss for this quarter. How much longer is WallStreet going to let them use "we are building out our infrastructure" excuse for poor performance. The AMZN monster may turn out to be just another big dinosaur. Big sales little to no profits is just trading dollars in the end.

    Why the market sets such a low bar for such a high priced stock eludes me. APPL has something like a oprating margin of 36% and selling for a forward pe of 14. Then you have AMZN with operating margin of 1% selling with a forward PE of over 100. Where is the connection? If AAPL was selling at the same forward PE as AMZN it would be priced at...get this...$5764 per share. Amazing!!

    Hmmm...what would AMZN sell for at the same projected PE of AAPL? $31.71 Yikes!
    Sep 20 12:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The economy should hit its stride late into next year, says Moody's Analytic's Mark Zandi. He's forecasting 4% growth into 2014, citing continued strength in U.S. corporations due to cost cuts and better profit margins. All we need to do is "nail down those fiscal issues," Zandi says. “By 2014-15, the surprise is going to be how strong the economy is growing.” [View news story]
    Sorry, I don't see the connection. Just because US corporations cut their cost and have better profit margins, how does that add to GDP? Seems to me part of cutting cost would be laying off workers. Laid off workers tend not to go on spending sprees. Less consumer sales would tend to put a dent into GDP.
    Aug 29 08:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Chicago PMI: 55.6 vs. 50.5 expected, 51.6 prior. [View news story]
    Actually the "prior" was not 51.6. The last 6 months wee corrected earlier this week. No nobody seemed to have noticed.

    But first here is the headline from December:
    Chicago PMI Beats, New Orders Up

    Live Trading News-Dec 29, 2012
    The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index PMI for the month of December rose from 50.4 in November to 51.6, the 3rd straight monthly increase ...

    Pretty positive headline...

    Here are the corrected numbers. PMI dropped every month since July. Perhaps January will be corrected too.
    (Changes all revised figures for NAPM-Chicago index and new orders component after ISM-Chicago issues corrected data) Jan 28 (Reuters) - The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago on Monday released corrected annual revisions to its index of Midwest business activity. The NAPM and New Orders figures were corrected. The revised figures for the past six months follow: Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July NAPM-Chicago 50.0 50.2 50.7 50.9 54.1 54.6
    Jan 31 10:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Going over the fiscal cliff "looks like where we're headed," says Senate Majority Leader Reid. S&P 500 losses accelerate, -0.7%[View news story]
    So Reid has lost control of the Senate? He can't get a bill through. Isn't that what the media was reporting about Boehner. Obama failed in leadership by insisting that taxes raise on the rich when the house was willing to give him nearly the same revenues in limiting tax deductions.
    Dec 27 10:33 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In charging into the housing debate, the Fed risks politicizing itself, David Reilly writes. William Dudley called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth, and a recent white paper went beyond the Fed's already unconventional policies. Reaction to talk of a new government housing policy (I, II) underscored how perceptions of Fed independence already have eroded.  [View news story]
    "called for "additional housing policy interventions" to help boost growth"

    Geesh! Like 4% 30 years loans are not good enough?? Government intervention in the housing industry got us into the problem in the first place.
    Jan 6 06:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senator Charles Schumer and four other Democratic senators have asked the FTC to probe record profits at oil refiners, with Schumer yesterday saying there's evidence that "illegal practices...could be punishing drivers." He believes refiners may be fixing prices by cutting back on stockpiles.  [View news story]
    Refiners? Profit margins of less than 5%. Typical liberal ploy to pretend you care in headlines and sound bites.
    May 30 09:14 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly (NLY -0.5%) investors may want to pay attention to the meltdown in the shares of Chimera Investment (CIM -8.7%) on the back of an SA article suggesting the firm (which hasn't filed an earnings release or financial information since 2011 Q3) could be headed towards a $0 dividend and/or delisting. Annaly owns a sizable chunk of Chimera and manages the company through a subsidiary.  [View news story]
    The article was stupid. The author plotted the recent decreasing dividends on a calendar a drew a straight line to hit zero sometime in 2013. You could do the same thing with the AAPL chart.
    The author wrote;
    "At the rate of decline experienced in the Chimera' dividend for the first two quarters of 2012, the company will not be able to pay a dividend by the second quarter of 2013. "
    That is so stupid!
    Jul 26 03:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 9.8% Yield And Monthly Dividends For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    I think with the knee jerk reaction to interest rates rising, along with tax loss selling here at year end, a 10 year treasury at 4% has been more than priced in. Looking at NLY preferreds in April of 2010 when the 10yr hit 4%, NLY-A was yielding about 8%, just a bit lower than it is today. ARR-A yielding 8% would put the PPS $4.75 higher than the PPS is here; even a 9% yield would having ARR-A climbing 9% to $22.91. Just taking the move to a 9% yield plus the dividends for the next year of $2.06 would give you a total return of 18.9%.

    Other mREIT preferreds with yields near 9.5% and above; ARR-B, NYMTP, CYS-B, MITT-A, MITT-B. I don't own any NYMTP, but hold the others plus DX-A.
    http://bit.ly/19UbOtQ
    Dec 29 10:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    Let's say AMZN can grow revenues at 22% for the next 5 years. More than likely they can't as the 'law of big numbers' is catching up with them, but for this example 22%. Keep in mind revenues grew 27% in 2012, and this year projected to be 22.4%.

    That will give them revenues in year 5 of $173bil.(now $64bil) Last year they had no net earnings, but let's say they can get it up to 2%. That is $3.46 bil in net earnings. Again, I doubt they can do that but again...They currently have 455 mil shares outstanding. That will increase due to stock awards, but I will keep it the same 5 years from now.

    That will give them earnings per share of $7.60 per share. Now let's give them a more realistic p/e of 30. That produces a price per share of $228...a 25% discount to where the price is now.

    I think the above would be ideal conditions. I think their average revenue growth rate at year 5 will be closer to...14%. Knocking 2% off a year for 5 shows revenues in year 5 of $146 bil. using the same 2% net profit and a generous p/e of 20 leaves a PPS of $128.00.

    Anyway one looks at it, it is hard to justify today's PPS of $300+ even 5 years out...in my opinion. Perhaps they could get a higher net profit., but if they do I think revenues will suffer. Even if they can get their net profit to WMT's level of about 3.6%, in the last example the pps would be no more than about where the PPS is now 5 years from now and that would be with no additional hit to revenues that would likely happen with their higher price structure.
    Jul 19 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
    During the Clinton years we had an economy on steroids. We had the baby-boomers hitting their most productive years. The boomers were also hitting the age where they on average build or occupy their most expensive home.
    The opposite is true today. The boomers are becoming net consumers of goods and services and will weigh on the economy as they downsize.
    Dec 24 08:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
    "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. "

    That should read "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law raising taxes for married couples earning over $250k, and individuals earning more than $200k."

    Or, "The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law sucking $X bil out of the economy next year by raising taxes for married couples earning over $250k, and..."
    Dec 24 08:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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