Seeking Alpha

Joe Gantoss'  Instablog

Joe Gantoss
Send Message
Technical Analysis & Japanese Candlesticks Trader as a full time job, over 15 years of experience, combining with fundamentals and thorough DD to find the best entry & exit points, Biotech sector expert, following this sector for over 4 years, trading the clinical catalyst &... More
My blog:
JoeBioCharts
View Joe Gantoss' Instablogs on:
  • $SPX Tachnical Analysis, Looking for support Aug.18th
    Weekly Chart 
    I will start with the long term and looking @ the weekly chart, we can see the last downtrend is a technical correction for the long period uptrend that started on March 2009 from 666.79 and finished with the highest level on May 2011 touching 1370.58....
    The drop breakdown a long term uptrend line (purple) with a long candle and huge volume, the correction found a support @ the Fibonacci 38.2 level, bouncing back from that point, this week started well but the trend after Thursday big drop create another red candle, and This Friday close, will effect the whole week, is the price going down further to recheck the last support and create a double bottom??

    Now for the short term we are moving to the daily chart trying to figure the support points & the indicators directions.

    Daily Chart


    The indicators are deep in the oversold zone, and need to recover, but they can stay there for longer period, I don't like the MACD that didn't cross up the moving average while the price went up sharply, that indicate that there is no momentum for the last uptrend, also the volume decrease in the uptrend days and increase in the down trend days..
    Most of you, that read my tweets about the $SPX noticed that I mentioned several times, It's rare to see a V shape correction in the markets after a big drop, the W shape is  more common and the price will drop back to recheck the last support (or close to it) to create a double bottom ....
    So if the price check back the 1100 point and bounce back, it will be a bullish sign, but breaking it down and closing under that point will give us the sign that the bears won the battle and we are heading to the Fibo-50.0 point around 1020 as you can see it with the yellow lines in the weekly chart.
    I will be looking for the close on Friday, maybe it will give us a clue about the overall direction, in these markets with a lots of volatility, we have to trade wisely and not invest, as it's hard to predict the direction and need to watch the charts of the markets daily and try to ride on the intraday volatility and work on 60min & 15min to get a short life trade.
    Tags: SP500 index
    Aug 20 8:46 AM | Link | Comment!
  • $ALXA Technical Analysis: waiting for the FDA reply
    $ALXA started it's run-up early on Dec. 2010 from $0.90 to double and reach the $1.80 point on 03/30 and the highest point $1.91 on 06/30 enjoying the hype of the resubmission.
    During the run-up stage we can see on the chart, the technical correction twice that had a good support of the uptrend line (purple line) .
    The last markets sell-off hit $ALXA too...but it dropped very fast breaking down all the support levels...we can see that the strong suppprt @ $1.52 with the uptrend line & the horizontal line pause the drop for 5 trading days...but the power of the markets and the crowd over selling all the biotech sector hit $ALXA again to break down the $1.52 support, following with the next one @ $1.38 and the downtren line that supposed to use as a support , but all failed till the last one @ $1.15....

    Do you think that this support will hold...IMHO the situation in the US markets have a big effect on this stock, and the Catalyst of the resubmission was on Aug. 05th, so $ALXA expecting the FDA reply on 14 days that lead us to the Aug. 19th, if the FDA accept the resubmission, they will give them the classification of the review, and most likely it will be Class-II with 6 months review period.

    In a usual markets condition, the price would be in the highest levels, anticipating the FDA decision...and usually we see a "sell the news" action and profit taking, but in days & markets oversold like this days, there will be no sell-off as most the short term traders are out of this trade, we might see a spike toward the next resistant line around $1.38, but then it will fade as the 6 months is a long period for the ST traders, it might be a good point for the LT investors, but 6 months with no other catalyst or action during this period will put a pressure  on the price, it will be a very good to check it back 3 months ahead of the new PDUFA date.

    Many traders have the same issue with $PLX, as they are waiting for the FDA reply with Class-II review most likely too...but with $PLX it's different situation, as for Protalix there is 2 other catalyst waiting very close during the Q4, as they will have the European & the Brazilian decision during the end of Oct - Nov 2011, so the price this days backed in the Class-II decision and looking for the next catalyst.

    Disclosure: No Position in ALXA



    Aug 17 9:13 AM | Link | Comment!
  • $CLSN Technical Analysis: Found the support, now the reversal starts
    $CLSN enjoyed from a lots of hype and love from the Biotech investors lately, but also suffered from a big drop the same as all the biotech sector after the big sell-off  in the US markets, despite the good PR about the completion of enrollment of 600 patients.
    The big drop find a good support @ the weekly horizontal line $2.71 touching and breaking out the line 4 times but always close above it, giving us the feeling that this point is a good support, beside the 200MA in the area using as resistance and support.
    The RSI & the Stochastics are deep in the oversold zone changing the direction of the lines and preparing for a runup.

    I think, we can see the price in an uptrend as more as the markets do so, The first point that used as a resistance several times is $3.10 and did so today. we have to see the break out that point with a larg volume too to ensure the trend and direction.
    It's important to feel the markets move, as if the markets turn positive, CLSN will have a wild run back to the last heights...as the investors will be back to the market and to the loved and preferred Bio stocks.

    Disclosure: Long CLSN
    For more TA and charts visit joebiocharts.blogspot.com/

    Aug 16 10:18 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.