Comments on Joe Gelet's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/joe-gelet/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-374764 374764 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 15:45:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88847-moving-to-a-trans-industrial-paradigm?source=feed#comment-307633 307633 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 01:12:53 -0500
Regarding the post industrial title, it is just a nomenclature to describe 'after industrial' .. the word 'trans' was chosen instead of 'post' in the title due to research that was conducted on that term: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... and it's connotations. The point being, our society is designed based on an industrial system that developed during the 20th century. In Cambodia and pre-industrial cultures and most of the third world, there isn't much industrial infrastructure to speak of. With the internet, and small modular technology such as Micro Nuclear Power Plants: blogs.zdnet.com/emergi... It is possible to live almost anywhere and trade anything. In fact, agricultural society has less impediments to adapt because they do not have highways, bridges, zoning laws, etc. Wall St. was in Manhattan because NY was an industrial solution to solve the problem of major corporations who needed big filing cabinets (skyscrapers) which are outdated. Even before the crash, many trading firms have only sales and marketing offices in NY while trading and R&D is done in remote facilities which are highly customized and highly secured. (Reston, VA vs. Washington D.C.). Saying people shouldn't live in NY or Wall St. is this or that is not the point. The point is NY and big cities served the major societal function pre-internet and pre-computer which now doesn't have value. Wall St. has the branding value and the associative value but is it really worth $50,000 /month to house servers there?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103822-new-market-dynamics-for-2009?source=feed#comment-298086 298086 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 11:43:55 -0500
Things really haven't changed that much. The news and noise gets around faster, but the rate of human response and nature of human response remains the same. We have new tools and toys but the game remains the same.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101920-flying-bankers-and-the-economic-crisis-how-do-we-make-banks-lend?source=feed#comment-291076 291076 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:21:45 -0400
We're probably more free and equal than we've ever been, depressing as that thought is.

When a small minority of wealthy, landed aristocrats wanted to unite the 13 independent colonies into one country after the American Revolution, they called themselves Federalists but they were only a tiny minority who wanted to control everything with a powerful, centralized government.

The vast majority of Americans were small farmers and yeomen without means (95% ?) in the 1780s and most of them opposed the Federalists and their central government.

These anti-Federalists weren't even dignified with a name and so they became known as the anti-Federalists.

Obviously, the Federalists won which they almost always do, everywhere.

John Jay summed up the mood (and he was NOT speaking ironcally or trying to be funny) when he said:

"Those who own the country ought to govern it."

He and his cronies owned the country and they wanted to govern it too. They succeeded and have been in power ever since.

The only good thing you can say about it is that talented men and women can move into the ruling class either through marriage or achievement.

But fee enterprise capitalism? That is a fantasy of Adam Smith that America never tried.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101920-flying-bankers-and-the-economic-crisis-how-do-we-make-banks-lend?source=feed#comment-290999 290999 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 17:20:46 -0400
But then again, you can arrest all the Bank Executives and Directors and throw them in jail for stealing the governments money. Do you think a week in jail might change some minds of Senior managers and Directors. Just think of the ideas the New York Bankers might come up with on the Exercise Yards of the Federal Lockup.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101920-flying-bankers-and-the-economic-crisis-how-do-we-make-banks-lend?source=feed#comment-290834 290834 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 12:21:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101920-flying-bankers-and-the-economic-crisis-how-do-we-make-banks-lend?source=feed#comment-290785 290785 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 11:22:53 -0400
No one wants to lend to someone who cannot repay the loan. Look at the typical American's balance sheet and you wouldn't lend to him either, not at ANY interest rate. Unlike your (unnamed, of course) banks declining to issue secured credit cards, which makes sense only if the cost of maintaining the account is excessive, banks asked to lend to people whose assets are all pledged as collateral on loans that exceed the value of those assets, have no savings, and have jobs of questionable security that pay slightly less than their outgoing cash flow are only being prudent when they decline such wonderful opportunities. It is very likely that there is no interest rate at which such loans can profitably be made.

There is absolutely no way to fix this problem without simply giving people printed money. And once you start that, expect the Treasuries bubble to finally burst. Future government borrowing from anyone other than the Fed will become all but impossible.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101920-flying-bankers-and-the-economic-crisis-how-do-we-make-banks-lend?source=feed#comment-290718 290718 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 10:16:52 -0400
Banks were lending money that came back from Asia as Japan and China were buying our Treasuries, our Fannie Maes, etc. In return, we let Asia overwhelm our domestic markets with their value-added exports. We then ship raw materials to Asia.

This is the way a third world commodities nation operates, not an industrial power. The lack of lending is due to our nation being BANKRUPT. We are too deep in debt. Period.

Fixing this is not impossible: we need tariffs and barriers to manufactured goods as well as higher interest rates to encourage savings, not buying of say, gold, and hoarding it.

The US banking system has not attracted savings for several years, our national savings rate has been negative ever since Greenspan dropped interest rates to 1%. Now, Bernanke is dropping it to nearly 0%. This means, savings will collapse even worse.

So there can be no lending since there is no capital flowing into banks that can support any sort of lending. The money the Fed is giving the banks is NOT savings. The US has virtually no FOREX reserves unlike any of the Asian nations.

Indeed, Japan and China both have between them around $3 trillion in FOREX reserves! The US has less than $60 billion. This is absurd. And unsustainable for a nation which presumes to be the global monetary giant.

No analyst should avoid the issue of trade and FOREX reserves when talking about our economic decline and fall.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101920-flying-bankers-and-the-economic-crisis-how-do-we-make-banks-lend?source=feed#comment-290647 290647 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 07:33:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91331-what-the-russian-georgian-war-means-for-the-euro?source=feed#comment-288404 288404 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:50:49 -0400
and you get to write of SA?

Man I won't ever coem to an SA posting again ""

Europe has been at war for the last 5,000 years.. if anyone notice the reason USD became reserve currency was because Europe was demolished after WW2 and US was untouched with manufacturing base intact and a strong political footing being a driving force in the winning of Alliance powers.

Secondly, if anyone was watching the news, Russia invaded Georgia. Israel had troops in Georgia and trained Georgian forces. If one doesn't call that a 'war' then what is it? Tanks were rolling from Russia to Georgia and 1/2 of the country was destroyed by bombings. I'm sorry if it's "insane" to call that a war.. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98217-where-do-investors-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-273115 273115 Fri, 03 Oct 2008 19:09:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98217-where-do-investors-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-271710 271710 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 12:36:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-264603 264603 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 08:49:48 -0400
In the case of the insolvency of the Depository or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. the U.S. bank of which the Depository is a branch, a liquidator may seek to freeze access to the Canadian Dollars held in all accounts by the Depository, including the Deposit Accounts. The Trust and the Authorized Participants could incur expenses and delays in connection with asserting their claims. These problems would be exacerbated by the reality that the Deposit Accounts will not be held in the U.S. but instead will be held at the London branch of a U.S. national bank, where it will be subject to English insolvency law. Further, under U.S. law, in the case of the insolvency of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., the claims of creditors in respect of accounts (such as the Trust’s Deposit Accounts) that are maintained with an overseas branch of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. will be subordinate to claims of creditors in respect of accounts maintained with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. in the U.S., greatly increasing the risk that the Trust and the Trust’s beneficiaries would suffer a loss.


From the prospectus.

Does this concern anyone?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-258274 258274 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:55:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-256451 256451 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 21:50:30 -0400
Disclosure: long UUP.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-256114 256114 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 14:34:46 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-254081 254081 Sun, 14 Sep 2008 12:24:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-253283 253283 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:05:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-252441 252441 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 08:07:32 -0400
jimrogers-investments....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-252273 252273 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:17:36 -0400
Chinese government is buying it...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-252156 252156 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:19:43 -0400
Generally, economists believe that a weak currency helps a nation improve its trade deficit. However, earlier this year as the dollar weakened against the euro oil prices shot up and, according to trade data from July, the US trade deficit increased. We were exporting more but the rise in oil prices more than offset the gains in exports!

One way to push down oil imports would be for the US government to tax oil the way the Europeans do now. Look for this to happen regardless of who gets elected, but don't expect either party to admit that higher oil taxes are in the works. Most voters fail to understand why higher oil prices due to new taxes on oil would actually help the US reduce its trade deficit and would, in the long run, help the US economy.
Of course, the government could give the oil tax revenues back by cutting taxes for low income earners and establishing a negative income tax for non-income earners.

In any event, for those of you who aren't interested in tax and trade policy because you just want to make a buck in the stock market, my advice is to hold an internationally diversified stock portfolio with some gold/silver and commodity exposure as well.

Gold and silver have been clobbered recently, so you could invest maybe five or ten percent of your portfolio by buying ETFs such as GLD and/or SLV. You could also invest maybe five or ten percent of your portfolio in commodities and oil by buying ETFs such as DBC and OIL.

You can gain international stock exposure by buying ETFs such has EEM (or VWO) for emerging markets and EFA for non-US developed countries. Note that EEM and EFA are both down around twenty five percent over the last year. Canada isn't in the EFA so you can get exposure to Canada from the EWC ETF.

You can also buy exposure to the US market by buying ETFs such as SPY for the S&P 500 and IWM for the Russel 2000. US stock values will be hurt initially by a drop in the value of the dollar, but a drop in the US dollar also helps US exporters in the long run.

One final note on ETFs, you can buy/sell options on all of equity ETFs listed above. So, on fairly conservative way to make a little extra money each month is to sell out of the money covered call options on the ETFs you do own. Short term out of the money options usually expire worthless, so you generally pocket the change you make from selling these options (make sure they are out of the money and that they expire in around a month or less). If the market goes up to the strike price, you make a gain and keep the money from selling the option. If the market goes up past the strike price, you still keep the money from selling the option, but you don't get the gain past the strike price. So, unless you expect an explosive move upwards, selling short term, out of the money, covered call options is a pretty safe bet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251450 251450 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 09:42:19 -0400
That's a good point. With short-term currency trading, these blogs are about as useful as a blog advocating betting on red tonight at the casino roulette wheel because of the past performance of that bet. It would be nice to not even play that game.

The thing with currencies is, we don't have a choice. If we make no bets, we are still going long on the dollar. My entire future income is based in dollars, as is the value of my house and 90% of my assets. There are probably millions of harder-working, smarter, and more educated people than me in places like Latin America, Asia, and Africa, but they can't accumulate as much purchasing power as me because their currencies are nearly worthless. If the U.S. begins to go the route of currency devaluation, which it appears to be doing, some kind of long term (not short term) hedge against my 99% dollar concentration might be prudent, despite the daily/monthly noise in FX markets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251241 251241 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 04:43:22 -0400
Many countries hate us because of Iraq and our human rights abuses around the world. What if foreign countries decide to suddenly dump their dollars - goodbye dollar, goodbye USA! OUR WORLD STATUS / DOMINATION WILL BE GONE OVERNIGHT. It's too bad that foreign governments can use OUR DOLLAR AS A LETHAL WEAPON AGAINST US. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251181 251181 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 00:46:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251144 251144 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:26:36 -0400
bob jones, negative euro zone growth has it's roots in the US downturn, what has been significant was the Russian conflict which started the Euro sell off. But a bad Euro does not a good dollar make, there is real money demand for the dollar which is not EUR weakness alone. It is likely also a problem with the credit markets but a drying up of credit maybe isn't enough to push the greenback higher it would need to be driven by foreign exchange markets??? The fact is there is no definitive evidence why the dollar is up, therefore this is a good 'insanity trade' because the move just doesn't have any sense, therefore markets should adjust.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251117 251117 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 21:29:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251103 251103 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 21:11:30 -0400
Only when credit begins to grow anew will the US dollar begin it's final approach to zero. When will that be? Perhaps after the coming bail out of Lehman Bros. These bailouts are extremely inflationary in the long run. In the short run, they shore up the Republican base for the vote November 5th, 2008, to no avail, Sarah (Pitbull) Palin notwithstanding.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-251092 251092 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:45:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-250841 250841 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:45:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-250599 250599 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:31:01 -0400
This person is a fool... not because of his commentary - which may or may not make sense. But because anyone who has spent time trading the G10 currencies knows that what they don't know. - G10 currency movements are random

Apparently, people think that they can analyze a situation like this, in a similary manner which ALL the major bank Economists / Currency Strategist do and somehow come up with a positive expected value trade.

Guess what.. short the dollar, long the dollar against EUR and your expected value is ZERO (i might agree with an assessment the the forward points equate to true expected value - but most people don't even know what those are).

Anyway... save your poor little fingers by not posting such gibberish.. save your eyes by not reading it... and save your money (more accurately, save your risk budget) by not trading it....

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