Seeking Alpha

Joe Kunkle

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Joe Kunkle's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Put Back Spreads: Are Hedge Funds Preparing for a Bursting Bubble in Tech? [View article]
    4th Paragraph - Should Say "Buying" 2 OTM Puts, Not "Selling" - My Error
    Mar 14, 2011. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 'Elephants' Buffett May Seek to Buy [View article]
    If I were to add an 11th I would think ConAgra Food (CAG) would be a name to consider, fits the criteria perfectly
    Mar 10, 2011. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Upside Remains in 12 High Growth Semiconductors [View article]
    Wow, some major gainers since I wrote this article...

    I would now also be adding BRKS, AXTI, and IXYS to this list of high growth Semis with great value
    Jan 14, 2011. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Upside Remains in 12 High Growth Semiconductors [View article]
    ENTG and IPGP two names I forgot that I would add to this list
    Dec 13, 2010. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing First Solar's Upcoming Earnings With Options [View article]
    The straddle is not pricing in a 10% move on earnings, as you are forgetting about residual volatility, considering there are 4 weeks of trading remaining in November options. IV vs HV is about a 19% Spread, or 41% of the current IV, so the actual move being priced into just the earnings move is closer to 4.5%.

    Short Interest alone is not an indication that the move will be bearish, although it has grown 20% in 2 months, so there are more shorts coming into the name, but high short floats can also lead to short squeezes, and create a bullish move on any positive results.

    Recent earnings gaps have not been on average 10%, closer to 6.5% on average, and being short the FSLR straddle into earnings has worked 3 consecutive quarters and IV has been overpriced, likely the reason for the smaller IV/HV spread this time.
    Oct 25, 2010. 06:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin Has the Firepower to Send Shares Higher [View article]
    All of that is in my profile and also on my website in the About section for your viewing pleasure

    There is a reason people pay me for my investment insights, and a reason I have 16,000+ followers on this site, while you provide no insight whatsoever.

    Bachelor's in Finance, Master's in Investment Mgmt. - All Performance and In Depth View of Trades is Also Provided on Website - Fully Transparent
    Oct 10, 2010. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semiconductors: Rotation Within Sector From Growth to Value Provides Pair Trading Opportunities [View article]
    Really? How about commenting on the article at hand...loser....the short gold miner trade worked great, 70%+ gain in just a few days as noted live in the comments...you should learn how to read be4 trying to criticize...
    Sep 25, 2010. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Option Traders Bet on Sell-Off in Gold Miners [View article]
    Big Papi - If you read the comments you will see that the trade worked out great...thanks for asking
    Sep 25, 2010. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    Calendar Spread worked and that was highest probability trade...

    Once again, since you have comprehension issues, I have actively noted the put spread buying in the name up to the date...

    Third, read disclosure = NO Positions ...

    Fourth, I am sorry you are bitter it failed and you have to get off your couch and use a treadmill
    Sep 20, 2010. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    Both? - there were three trade ideas - you seem to have a selective memory. The calendar spread keeps the net credit.

    I was wrong about the eventual approval of the drug, but did bring up the concerns of effectiveness and the likelihood that the panel shows concerns. I did not expect a huge price movement, and the magnitude was a bit shocking.

    However, the point was to use options to minimize risk, and hopefully ARNA longs replaced shares with a strategy to define the event risk.

    I wrote this article way in advance and as I said I do not trade these until the week of the event, usually days prior. After seeing more than 12,000 Sep 7/4 put spreads bought (posted in comments) my bias turned bearish ahead of the event.....
    Sep 17, 2010. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    First, this whole situation has not played out yet - I misunderstood you as I thought you meant the calendar spread which was profitable for trade 2 and the butterfly was profitable yesterday, you are marking it today.

    I also noted I would wait until closer to the date to make the trade and it was trading for even a larger credit at that point.

    I have also been updating the increased bearishness in the options in the comments and made a call recently that I expect it to trade to $4.

    Furthermore I called a split panel, and guess what we got....

    Pay attention
    Sep 15, 2010. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    Obviously you have a problem doing Math - shares only moved 40%, less than options priced in, making both short volatility trades profitable.....
    Sep 15, 2010. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    Another 4K ARNA Sep 7/4 put spreads bought today 9-8 as many are turning more bearish as shares probe highs
    Sep 8, 2010. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    Update 9/7

    Arena Pharma (ARNA) September 7/4 put spread bought 8,000X at $1.26 here ahead of 9-16 FDA Panel
    Sep 7, 2010. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma: Using Options to Trade on FDA's Decision for Key Obesity Drug [View article]
    Update 9:2:

    Arena Pharma (ARNA) seller of 5,000 September $11/$5 strangles at $1.50 here,
    Sep 2, 2010. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
117 Comments
25 Likes