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Joe Springer

 
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  • Email On Tonix [View instapost]
    You are most welcome tkswett, yes it is.
    Aug 17 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Email On Tonix [View instapost]
    You are most welcome and thank you D. I really don't know which alternative to root for, 3 good options.
    Aug 17 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Email On Tonix [View instapost]
    That 2X sales number comes from how the market valued Map on the deal, but using the profit sharing we can get to the same place a different way and apply the numbers to Tonix:

    Map sold out for about $1 billion to Allergan without FDA approval, Allergn's CEO said he forecast $500 million in peak sales for Levadex, so from that we can extrapolate that profits should add up to more than 2X revenues in the life of a womens/pain/CNS/reform... drug (otherwise Allergan would not buy).

    So if Tonix is forecast to have $1 billion in peak FM sales that would roughly mean a forecast of more than twice that in lifetime profits, or $2 billion current value and $144.
    Aug 17 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Email On Tonix [View instapost]
    ANYTHING for I Heart Joe.

    Using Map as an example it would mean they would be valued at about 2X sales before approval ($144). Here were Map and Allergan's terms (Map's product used a device (inhaler), though the drug did well in trials the device manufacturing site did not pass muster and they had to resubmit their New Drug Application to the FDA, they then entered this agreement at around the price where they were after the FDA told them they needed no further testing):

    http://bit.ly/1puwBLG

    "Under the terms of the Agreements, Allergan will make a $60 million up-front payment to MAP and up to $97 million in additional payments upon MAP meeting certain development and regulatory milestones. MAP will be responsible for obtaining approval of the NDA from the FDA. *Generally, the parties will equally share in the profits* from sales of the Product generated from its commercialization to headache specialist physicians in the Territory."
    Aug 17 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    MNKD had it way harder, they had a device (which always complicates matters), and they had to dose along with the patients being dosed with a different type of insulin at the same, which can and did throw the numbers off, plus so many variables of people feeding themselves and then how much activity they engage in. There are no behaviors like that to control for while people are sleeping, and there are no other drugs to skew things. MNKD was also dealing with a life and death condition and drug whereas CBP has decades of safe use at much higher doses to show it is indeed very safe. Additionally oral Afrezza was never available off label (does not exist), and anecdotally and in surveys off label oral CBP corroborates Tonix' approach very well (and of course their statistically significant improvement in 3 symptoms in the 2a trial). Throw in that the FDA named FM as a disease for special regulatory treatment and Tonix seems to have a much lower hurdle to jump.
    Aug 17 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    There are so few shares available, analysts work for big funds (buy side) and brokers (sell side).

    Buy side: If they like the stock they have anti-motivation to spread glowing views, their fund may want to buy it, so there is incentive to try to spread negative views, and some unscrupulous funds may do that.

    Sell side: If they want their brokers to be able to buy and sell the stock for fees or after doing some institutional banking then they have incentive to spread glowing reviews, but Tonix has about 1/400 of the shares of KO for example.

    And then neither group is known for its bravery, there is little incentive to make predictions.
    Aug 17 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Email On Tonix [View instapost]
    You are most welcome Mister Kenser, thank *you* for the year-ago email you sent me on Tonix.
    Aug 17 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    If you still have that same price target that would be correct Jeb.
    Aug 17 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    Wow joedct47, thank you for all of that.
    Aug 17 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    Thank you Buddy Wise, you are right, and wise, and quite a buddy, I updated it again, thank you:

    R is calculated:

    R = Price Target on Good Data / (Current Price - Price Target on Bad Data)

    Example:

    I'll use my $77 share price for price target on good data, even though I don't think the stock would go to $4 no matter what I'll use that as a bad data target because they have that in cash.

    R = Price Target on Good Data / (Current Price - Price Target on Bad Data)
    R = 77/(14-4)
    R = 77/10
    R = 7.7
    Aug 17 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    You are most welcome jankrouham, Chris DeMuth Jr.'s article is linked at the top where he reviews a book on the subject if you are interested in further reading.
    Aug 15 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Risk Vs Reward With Kelly [View instapost]
    Actually you receive 3 for 1 in that example, I need to update the last portion to be just:

    Price Target / Current Price

    It's updated now, so your %'s would actually be higher. In addition, this models a total loss on bad results, which is very unlikely, even if all of their programs are valued at zero they have more than $4 in cash per share.

    For a bull it really says bet a lot - like you said it should be a portion of what can speculate with, and like I said your own personal risk tolerance is more important.
    Aug 15 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix May Not Need Final Trial [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 15 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix May Not Need Final Trial [View article]
    That's an interesting question too brichnyc, I think it is best to be forward-looking and cost basis agnostic.

    There is a formula to consider when pondering such things, I think I'll do a quick blog post..
    Aug 15 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix May Not Need Final Trial [View article]
    That's a good question brichnyc but I could not recommend trading outside of playing the catalyst, I just don't know which days will be up or down.
    Aug 15 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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