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Joe Springer

 
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  • Tonix May Not Need Final Trial [View article]
    No news jankrouham, maybe just due for a pullback..
    Aug 15 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    It looks like a scam to me G&T but either way it's not sleep related..
    Aug 15 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    I also think they could get a significant improvement in fatigue (not needed for approval), they did not get it in the 2a but that perhaps is to be expected because of the oral lasting too long..
    Aug 13 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    You are most welcome Moriarty, thank you.

    The 2a study was compelling too - not only did they get a statistically significant improvement in pain, tenderness, and depression versus placebo, but also a statistically significant improvement in restorative sleep versus placebo (measured by CAP A2/A3), and a correlation between the nights of restorative sleep and improvements in symptoms.

    They don't have to prove the restorative sleep portion, just improvement in pain, but it is good supporting data.
    Aug 13 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    You are very welcome Clayton, thank you.

    I know - the Dec 20s cost at least $3..
    Aug 13 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    You are most welcome Stephen J Melnykevich, thank you.

    My guess is as the date gets closer the price will appreciate, but we shall see.
    Aug 13 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    You are most welcome Clayton, thank you. The official date in the filings is that they anticipate Q4, but in the conferences since June they've been saying "early" Q4, and it may even sneak in to September:

    On May 12th, Tonix announced that it had completed enrollment in its pivotal 12-week BESTFIT (BEdtime Sublingual TNX-102 SL as Fibromyalgia Intervention Therapy) trial. As of August 4th, BESTFIT should be complete.

    We spoke with Tonix CFO Dr. Leland Gershell on August 2nd. Dr. Gershell confirmed that everyone in the company is blinded to the 17 site study, and will remain so until data is delivered by the contract research organization roughly 6-8 weeks from August 4th.

    Dr. Gershell noted Tonix' commitment to transparency and prompt disclosure of material information, and confirmed that shortly after data is delivered Tonix will issue a press release of top-line data and hold a conference call.

    We noted Tonix' stated view that data should be released "early" in the fourth quarter, and that 8 weeks from August 4 is September 29, the same week as the fourth quarter begins.

    Dr. Gershell confirmed that this view is based on the best information.
    Aug 13 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Tonix Worth? [View instapost]
    Thank you Dale, Tonix' short interest is very low, under 2% at last report:

    http://bit.ly/16VS75b

    I compared Tonix on the site you referred to Coke and Celgene and I can't see any difference, perhaps it's marker makers borrowing shares at times to make liquidity..
    Aug 13 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    You are most welcome tkswett, thank you.

    I like that Dr. Lederman is honing in on certain key points he did not emphasize as much prior, some points:

    -He repeatedly emphasized that improvement in pain alone is the approval endpoint, just like the 3 approved FM drugs. He made it so clear that it sounded like that is a part of the story that people have been misunderstanding. Dr. Gershell made this clear to me also a while ago and explained why it is important to the story - the idea is that sleep quality is a new area and there is no already-traveled approval pathway or already-established metrics. They are driving home the point that that doesn't matter, they just need improvement in pain.

    -He really made their vision clear with their dual focus on not just adding adding better treatments, but focusing on areas where they can replace problematic treatments - opiods, barbiturates, benzo/non-benzodiazepines

    -Also really emphasized the markets - how common the three lead conditions are, and how lacking and problematic the treatments are, he really made the case for the markets

    -He emphasized how costly both FM and PTSD are to everyone, and also made the point that this is an every night medicine for "week, months, years" in both conditions

    -Started the presentation off: "I hope I convince you by the end of this that we have a terrific team, we're well-capitalized, and it's a very exciting time for our company," he touched on the well-capitalized for key near milestones at the end, and mentioned the "strong balance sheet" again in the Q&A, said of last raise "recently cleaned up our shelf"

    -It was news to me that they may only need one study after AtEase: "if it's positive we believe this could be a registrational study, the first of two pivotal studies"

    -Positive and emphatic "well along" in extension study

    -The old version of their headache drug was the 2nd most prescribed headache med in 1988, and that was off-label, no good meds out there for most common headache, all approved have troublesome barbiturate that's banned in Germany

    -Their clinical research is the only work of its kind for a drug in PTSD, no one else is bringing one along that is headed to the clinic including all the big names

    I really like it.
    Aug 12 11:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    My opinion: I happen to think this is the time to get a position if you don't have one, and then I say hold at least through results. They will be a different company/stock on good results, and I think there is a good chance that results are significantly better than the 2a trial. I happen to think the chances of success are much better than 50%, and I think the return will be very high. So don't risk what you can't lose, but I think right here will look very good in the short, medium, and long term.
    Aug 12 10:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    $17 is their before data price:

    “We continue to view TNX-102 SL for fibromyalgia as an undervalued asset. Given our positive outlook for the phase 2/3 trial data coming in 4Q14, we reiterate our Buy rating with a risk adjusted price target of $17/share for risk tolerant investors. The emerging earlier pipeline compounds could act as additional catalysts.”

    I still think it's conservative, but that is to be expected.
    Aug 12 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix May Not Need Final Trial [View article]
    The sublingual form should be better and covered by insurance - even a tenth of the off-label oral market from a couple of years ago should be greater than $1B. On label peak sales in a growing market could be a lot better than that, especially considering what the relatively low rated Cymbalta and Lyrica are doing.
    Aug 12 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    LOL, yep.

    The CEO is getting himself in front of institutions at least 3 times in the next 4 weeks, we could see some of them initiate coverage after data.
    Aug 12 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    Before BESTFIT I happen to think it's worth more, I think Jason is a little conservative but that's ok.

    It's getting close to the time where pre-data projections no longer matter...
    Aug 12 12:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes [View instapost]
    Me too my friend.
    Aug 11 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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