Comments on Joey Keasberry's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/joey-keasberry/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/89254-junior-miners-on-sale?source=feed#comment-364981 364981 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 12:13:23 -0500
Thanks for the advice on Trade Winds Ventures. I bought it before it bottomed, but I can see that it hit the bottom now and I am buying more!

I have been researching the relationship between precious metals and mining stocks, as well as paper "money" manufactured by Uncle Bernie Clause with his Bailout Nation "Printing Pre$$e$ Gone Wild". Although the global economic slowdown has created a temporary deflationary period, supposedly bursting the so called "Commodity Bubble", it has created yet another real bubble... THE US TREASURY BOND BUBBLE!!

Historically, uncertain times create a rush to gold, as investors seek the safety of its intrinsic value. Same goes for silver, "the poor man's gold", which is currently in an extreme shortage, and actually rarer than gold as far as above ground mined supplies go. Both gold and silver paper spot prices have been artificially manipulated by naked shorting. Two major players, JP Morgan & Morgan Stanley, represent shorts of 30% of all silver. Forget the Paper Morgans (their stocks haven't performed well at all lately) and take delivery on the real money... Morgan Silver Dollars.

Trade Winds Ventures (TWD.V/TDWIF) seems to have bounced bigtime yesterday, as gold topped and remaned at the psychological barrier of $900/oz. at the end of the day. At a time when "experts" besides Peter Schiff are talking about the inevitability of inflation due to FED policy of debt monitisation through printing massive amounts of paper "money" and the US Treasury Bond Bubble, gold's surge above $900/oz is an extremely bullish indicator of things to come.

I believe that due to the critical Silver Shortage and massive naked shorting of both gold and silver, more COMEX futures traders will increasingly begin taking delivery of the actual metals, rather than converting the value at the expiration of the contracts into paper dollars. This could cause a massive default in the COMEX contracts (some call it CRIMEX due to the artificial manipulations by naked shorting), which will indeed destroy the artificial manipulation schemes, as investors suddenly realize that paper is cheaply printed, but real money is mined and minted. The news will no longer be able to be suppressed, creating what I believe will be the biggest gold/silver rush in all history.

Another cheap stock that was substantially higher just a few months ago that bounced big yesterday is Nova Gold (NG), which increased 18% at the close, the highest for major gold miners. Nova Gold is also a copper miner, and copper has taken a major beating in the bursting of the "Commodity Bubble". When copper bounced yesterday, I believe it signaled a bottom for the overall commodity market, as it is one of the last metals to bottom. The combination of gold and copper bouncing was extremely bullish for NG.

Two Silver Stocks that deserve some attention and performed extremely well as silver approached $12/oz again, from a low in the $8/oz range are Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) and Silver Wheaton (SLW). They are both sitting on mother lodes of silver, and have had the staying power to wait out the drop in silver prices to ride the upside bounce they have seen coming, which management knew was inevitable due to the current policy of debt monitisation and extreme silver shortages.

It is extremely interesting to note here that, although JP Morgan is the largest naked short holder in the world, they are also a major stock holder in SSRI. Perhaps when silver prices break out from the manipulation of all the naked short positions held, JP Morgan can mitigate their potentially astronomical losses by the massive gains they expect from their massive SSRI holdings.

How long can the USD be propped up by nothing more than "confidence" in a Bailout Nation that many still believe is "too big to fail", that may be forced to default on historically safe bonds if foreign investors and countries like China stop buying up the massive amounts of escalating debt? Everyone knows that it's beyond the point of no return and that the debt of the nation can never be repaid, except through massive debt monitisation of FED printing presses, which inevitibly leads to HYPERINFLATION, banana republic or Zimbabwe style.

Yes, the time for gold and silver to shine has certainly come... It's important to get some of the real deal in your hands and hide it well, while it can still be found, as the spot price and the premium over spot spread is widening very quickly, especially for silver coins, which are increasingly harder and harder to find if you can get them at all. I believe a good strategy is to buy up the extremely cheap mining stocks right now while they are beginning their bull run, or consider buying call options on them, which are still relatively cheap. Perhaps even consider buying call options on COMEX SILVER, and try to take delivery at the expiration of the contract, which they will not smile upon, but you have the right to do none the less. Just remember, the contracts may default.

In any case, if you are seeing the tide turning into a financial tsunami like Peter Schiff and I do, then jump on now and ride the bull rocket into the stratosphere... before it launches!! The ignition sequence has begun!!

3, 2, 1... We have LIFTOFF!!

Peter Schiff of Euro-Pacific Capital says to diversifiy out of USDollar denominated assets ASAP, as the value of them will go down with the dollar when it drops. Despite all of the controversy, he & US Rep. Ron Paul have been right on the money all along. We should all do our own homework and research, despite all the official "news" propaganda being spun like wild in a last ditch effort to prop up the US Dollar!!

The US Constitution says: A Dollar = X amount of grains of Gold/Silver.
The Federal "Reserve" Board says: Paper Dollars they Print is "money".

FIAT MONEY = FAKE MONEY. Paper is Printed. Real Money is Minted.
The FED is private & without real reserves, so what's left? Confidence??
Real Reservations about Dollar Destruction & loss of savings are arising.
Why not just print a billion dollars for ALL of US, & we're all billionaires!!!

Everyone must trust in something... What did Founding Fathers trust in?
At least all that paper the FED's printing still says: "IN GOD WE TRUST".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-272162 272162 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:36:25 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-270243 270243 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 06:05:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-269650 269650 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 12:08:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-269644 269644 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 12:06:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-269433 269433 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:59:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-269395 269395 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:24:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97806-time-for-gold-again?source=feed#comment-268700 268700 Mon, 29 Sep 2008 14:26:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-248824 248824 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:00:10 -0400 As Paulsharketc. pointed out, gold bugs buy when gold goes up. But what happens when prices go down? Please read this release from the US Mint, 8/21/08:
"'Due to the unprecedented demand for American Eagle gold one-ounce bullion coins, our inventories have been depleted. We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins,' the U.S. Mint told authorized coin dealers in a memorandum dated on Friday."

Hmmm... prices go up, people buy physical gold. Prices go down, and the mint can't keep up with demand. Maybe people buy gold and silver because paper money and investments are looking scary? Maybe they don't sleep better knowing that the gub'mint is busy throwing billions of dollars at every financial failure in sight. That includes fannie, freddie, georgia, iraq, etc. What a great investment in the future of America!
Of course it is ridiculous for gold bugs to fret about manipulation. Just because there is a huge demand for something doesn't mean the price will rise.
"Gold bugs defy the laws of supply and demand" - it is the price of gold that is defying the law of supply and demand. Obviously the price of gold(and silver), for whatever reason, is not being allowed to reach the point of demand destruction.
BTW, Indian gold imports up 45% last month over august 07. Because of low prices.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-248357 248357 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:27:13 -0400
As PAUL&$HARK&CO points out, they only buy when the price goes up! Gold bugs defy the laws of supply and demand - the more expensive it is, the more they want. When the price goes down, they sell it or hold (and grumble that the game is obviously rigged, or else the value of their investments would always go up, as measured in what they call fiat currency!).

It also sounds like there is a profitable spread between wholesale and retail gold, because gold investors insist on keeping the physical metal stuffed in their mattresses. I'm sure there are a lot of millionaires being minted doing exactly this, charging 5-10% premiums on the metal.

Anybody want to start a physical gold franchise with me? The higher our profit margins are, the more we contribute to the panic and conspiracy theories that drive our sales!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-248216 248216 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:52:52 -0400
Whoops. Looks like that was pretty wrong. The "Elliot Wave" nonsense is just that -- nonsense. You can always find ups and downs on a graph if you look hard enough. I'm glad it only took one market day to disprove this bunk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-248063 248063 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:08:47 -0400
I seriously laughed out loud reading this.

Isnt that like, the market finding the price? Oh wait, normal people arent the market, only banks are allowed to determine if there is true demand or not.

And banks have your best interest at heart.

By the way, if you didnt catch it, that was sarcasm.

www.rapidtrends.com/blog/]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-247964 247964 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 00:48:04 -0400 Frustrated are you that so many gold bugs can take a punch and still stand?
Are you one of the paper “assholes” doing the punching?

What you and even many of the gold bugs do not understand is that gold is money - as is silver. Always have been. Though, so far, in this fiat-debt-money monetary system they’ve required a negative real rate (inflationary) environment to be seen as such. Otherwise they act as commodities. I suspect many gold bugs (such as your friend) instinctively know gold is money, but do not understand that there are times when it can not compete in a rigged paper system.

In the 1980’s we returned to positive REAL interest rates after rates were raised above the rate of inflation. This made paper attractive over gold. During that paper bull/gold bear market (twenty-year secular trend) gold was treated as a commodity – a weak one at that, given the supply/demand fundamentals for gold.

Silver was decimated. Which contributes to today’s fundamentally bullish case for silver (from a commodity perspective).

Now we are in an EXTREMELY NEGATIVE REAL RATE environment = INFLATIONARY. The precise level of wealth confiscation (actual inflation minus returns on paper) will vary between the laughable government numbers and more realistic numbers being tallied privately.

In a negative-rate environment such as this, gold returns as money (vs commodity). Silver is both, though it looks like the powers are attempting to destroy money silver by making it unobtainable to the public.

And yes, we CAN have monetary inflation with weak or negative economic growth. This environment is gold/silver bullish - and paper bearish.

Know your secular trends and cycles within the context of 5,000 years of price stability as measured in gold/silver.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-247590 247590 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 13:37:06 -0400
1. We did not have trillions of dollars of debt.
2. We were a nation of net savers then. Now we are net spenders.
3. US$ is currently the world reserve currency, which means the rest of the world holds an ocean full of this stuff.
4. Back then the dollar is backed by silver and gold. Today it is backed by the government's promise.
5. Gold and silver have over 3,000 years of history. US dollar has been around for about 40 years (after Bretton Woods).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-247262 247262 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 04:18:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-247137 247137 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 18:37:24 -0400
First I post the link, after that the quote:

Link:

www.investmentrarities...

And the quote related to the futures markets says it all:

The recent revelations in the CFTC’s Bank Participation Report for August provided stunning proof of concentration and manipulation in the COMEX silver and gold futures markets. Two U.S. banks held a short position in COMEX silver futures, as of August 5, of 33,805 contracts, or almost 170 million ounces, an increase of 138 million ounces in one month. That increase is equal to 20% of the world mine production. If one or two entities bought or sold 20% of the annual world production of oil or wheat in a month, it would bring about a congressional feeding frenzy.

In gold, no more than 3 U.S. banks sold short in one month more than 10% of world annual mine production. This was the largest short position in gold and silver ever recorded by U.S. banks. After the massive and concentrated silver and gold short position was established by these U.S. banks, the markets experienced a historic decline in price. It all took place during the first widespread retail silver shortage in history. It is completely at odds how the law of supply and demand works.

Comment: Wow, going short like this explains a lot Joey!

By the way: I am from the Netherlands too...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-247110 247110 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 17:22:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-247046 247046 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 15:30:07 -0400
I just love it when posters KNOW what the hell they are talking about (relmor, sorgmot)!

Unfortunately, those in the other camp (Moral Hazards Amok) just don't, or plainly refuse, to comprehend what was, and what is. Let's face it, all the preceding posters, I believe, agree that financially we are on the brink of DISASTER. So, tell me, what is going to be JUST ABOUT THE ONLY ITEM OF VALUE that is left that our government CANNOT produce like cockroaches? Ah, now you see the light. Look. Just get as much gold and silver as you can afford, put it in a safe, and, preferably a gun safe so you can already have what you'll need (in there)! Good hunting!

One last thing (Amok). So we pay a premium for gold and silver, fine, what would you rather do, pay a little up front, and recoup on the other end, or eat dirt?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-246959 246959 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:33:04 -0400
Let’s put all this in perspective. The economy of this planet is in the early stages of the great credit supercycle collapse and the melt-down in the precious metals derivatives is only one if its manifestations.

Large financials and hedge funds, who are getting weekly margin calls, are being forced to de-lever their positions and restore their balance sheets, so they are liquidating their positions. As a result, along with the global economic slowdown, sector after sector is de-leveraging; housing, banking, energy, agriculture, and yes, even the shiny precious metals.

Back in January we wondered if our credit crisis would bring us hyperinflation or deflation. The answer is in; deflation. Credit is contracting, not expanding, as credit spreads are now high and the M3 money supply has collapsed from a over 17% a few months ago to under 3% today. The fed’s efforts of containing the credit collapse are limited as they are simply pushing on a string.

However, the retail consumer/investor who is still living off of their own leveraged debt of mortgages and credit cards, doesn’t yet get it, but they will. Soon, they too will get their margin calls as they get cut off from credit. In my opinion, the shiny coins they are buying today a premium they will be selling back again for much less in a year or two from now, just like they did in the 1980s.

Of course, Iran is always the wildcard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-246869 246869 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:30:00 -0400
As of Sept. 6, 2008 the DJIA is below the prior business cyclical high of 11400 set in 2000.

Gold and gold mining stocks are still in new (since 2000) upward trends by our Elliott Wave analysis and not below where they were in 2000.

Be happy. Holding gold since 2000, you gained 300 % against the against the dollar and against the DJIA.

But what is next cry those of little faith.

The USA money system is highly leveraged with debt owed far in excess of domestic stocks, bond, and real estate asset values owned. USA $ is rising in value against those assets while it falls in value against internationally traded commodities.l

The yield on the USA Federal 5 year note fell below 3.0 % this past week and got as low 2.8 % and closes at 2.9 %. This the lowest since 2003 which was 2.3 %. USA inflation in goods and labor unit cost is rising at 6 % or more.

Your choice. Gold are something else.

Good Luck.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-246778 246778 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:19:12 -0400 Banks held the largest increase on the short side in history, make that 3 banks. Yes 3 banks(you know the guys who tell you your money is safe, and the ones who brought you mortgaged backed secruities) controlled the price of gold and silver, and not one government official cared. They took it down from 980 to 773 in a very short time. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-246775 246775 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:15:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-246737 246737 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:49:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-245071 245071 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:41:36 -0400
1) I remember going through all this before in the 80s. Fiat paper was dead, only hard metals had real value and would be our future currency, yadda, yadda, yadda…

Back then it was all just hysteria from retail investors. Nothing is different this time.

2) As the great credit supercycle winds down and society is forced to de-lever , almost everything is going to contract in value; real estate, consumer goods, etc. Why would gold and silver be any different, especially now that central bankers have taken a stand and have started raising rates?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-244976 244976 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:42:46 -0400
Gold is headed to $700 because there is a bubble in all commodities.

Gold is no better a holder of value than zinc, copper or silver and is inferior to oil, except that all commodities are busting, so gold is crap as well.

And if gold is money, go to an Apple store and try to buy a PowerBook with it.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-244697 244697 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:03:13 -0400
This craving for liquidity has created a monstrous dollar shortage that is a total illusion.Yes, the demand is there, but it is like oxygen for a man stuck inside a box; he will do anything to keep the supply coming in so he can live; make any promises, give away anything he has to keep the oxygen flowing.

How can this end? Only one way. CB's will create more oxygen, more dollars, to allow the man to breathe. He needs only to satisfy his creditors with paper, not wealth. When this finally occurs, the demand for dollars will drop, credit will loosen, commodities will behave more like they have for the past 500 years, gold will rise and companies will start making money again and presumably their stocks will rise too.

So when will this occur? When the maximum point of pain is reached by the most amount of people. A 'political' event, when the pain of not acting is greater than following the inevitable course that they must.

One more cliche is appropriate. It's always darkest before the dawn.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-244428 244428 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:08:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-243915 243915 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 12:44:09 -0400
It may be that fiat money is eventually doomed, but that doesn't mean it's doomed in the immediate future. This is just one man's opinion, but I really think a lot of small time gold investors are going to take a bath on this one. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-243824 243824 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:46:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93307-decoupling-of-physical-gold-and-paper-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-243723 243723 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 08:13:09 -0400
Today when I went in Frankfurt to my Commerzbank AG branch to take 12400EUR that just arrived from my American profits on NYMEX,COMEX,CME,CBOT. Commerzbank sells bullion and GC coins as well and have their own metals refinery,on the advertising display,behind the window near each cashier's desk,were many different GC bars on display from 100oz to 1 gram and all kind of GC coins,ALL REAL as I asked,then I asked teller why is this displays placed,she told me that Commerzbank sell GC in all those on display you can order anything.I said,no thanks.
Then I asked if many people are buying,as you made me crazy with your GC ideas,she said nobody!She said the opposite many people bring their own fine GC bars and GC coins from before and sell to a bank.Then bank checks if it is real and then deposits EUR into your account at cash value of GC minus bid/ask depends on price but for 100oz it is about 1% and for 10g bar about 6% for coins same as small bars.
You can think for yourself,if bank keeps this GC on it's balance sheet or sells each time 100oz on futures markets pocketing 1% premium on the sot and higher.]]>