John Adam

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

John Petersen,

I believe that you have said that the design of the GM Volt power train makes sense to you. Remember the Volt uses a small ICE running at optimum speed to charge its batteries, has no transmission or drive shaft, and uses only the electric motor to move. That makes your suggested weight and size comparison between Advanced Lead-acid and Lithium Batteries meaningless in the case of the Volt.

The Volt uses the space where the transmission and drive shaft for other vehicles reside to house its large battery pack. The Lithium Battery it is going to use is about twice as large as needed to go its advertised 40 mile battery range because Lithium batteries do not last long when discharged over 50%. Therefore an Advanced Lead-Acid battery would only need to have half the capacity of its proposed Lithium battery. There would also be less heavy shielding needed to protect passengers from potential Lithium battery explosions.

I also doubt that your 821 pound advantage for lithium over advanced lead could be true considering the current claims of Firefly, news.cnet.com/8301-107... . That weight advantage would only make sense when comparing it to the old batteries I have in my pickup trucks.

Long Live the Cleantech Revolution

John, I am not a big fan of GM. I drive an Acura CL which is great. I drove a Honda Prelude for 16 years before that I owned a 190 SL, another great handling car. However I also owned a 1969 Corvair and I consider it the best handling GM vehicle ever. Only the 1959 and some 1960 Corvairs had poor suspensions which closely resembled that of the VW Beetle. GM obviously can learn from its mistakes and make a great product.

At one time there were conversion kits to replace the corvair engine with a small V8 and with that setup you could out handle anything and go about 200 miles an hour. The Corvette was an overweight pig with a pickup transmission compared to it. GM can make a great product if the bean counters that run the company get out of the way of their engineers.

Long Live the Cleantech Revolution

The Volt has a 16kwh battery pack and The price for it seems to be around $8,000. Now at $250/kWh it would be $4,000. Is that an attractive price with $2 a gallon gasoline? It would be for me because gasoline will soon be back to $5 and beyond unless we start replacing millions of ICE powered vehicles with electric powered vehicles. Of course if we did the price of gasoline would fall and perhaps stabilize at less than $2, so what. If we continue to depend only on ICE vehicles there will be no limit to the price of gasoline, diesel, and oil!

Long Live the Cleantech Revolution

John,

That Green Car Congress does not even refer to an EREV which is nothing like a PHEV. A PHEV has a standard ICE drive train which includes a transmission. The Volt EREV ICE runs at a constant speed that optimizes its economy while charging the battery pack.

The article states <<nearly 50% of US passenger vehicle miles are traveled by vehicles driving less than 20 miles per day.>> . What does nearly actually mean? Now in Ohio (like most of the non costal continental USA) we have urban sprawl and almost nobody has a work commute of less than 20 miles per day. Now it is true that before or current depression idiots living out in our boondocks would drive 10 miles to buy a loaf of bread or milk a few times a week, but better planning has mostly ended such stupidity.

Now personally it seems clear to me that the Volt batter pack could be sold with different amounts of its total capacity being populated. The totally populated battery pack costs $8,000, so cut the price 75% to $2,000 and you get what you and this article seem to think people would want. The Volt computer could be easily made driver programmable to change its range before the ICE starts to be anywhere from 0 to 40 miles. Flexibility should be the rule when possible.

Long Live the Cleantech Revolution

John,

It does appear that the Volt battery temperature control is done by software interpreting what to do according to the battery temperature,
gm-volt.com/2009/01/05.../ .

So I see no reason that a simple software change would not allow you to use an advanced lead acid battery instead of the Li it uses now. The 40 mile range on battery would have gotten me to work and back for the last 30 years. The same could be said for almost everyone I know.

As you well know, the Extended Range EV concept used by the Volt has a huge advantage because the ICE runs at a constant speed and only charges the battery after a trip goes over 40 miles. Throwing away the transmission is a huge cost and MPG advantage.

When the Volt goes into production the other auto makers will also soon ditch their transmissions to convert their PHEVs to EREVs. The problem now is that companies have spent so much on developing better transmissions that politics and old habits are getting in the way. Honda, Toyota and Ford may not be addicted to Li and using advanced lead batteries instead wiIl make the conversion easy.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

Given Obama's message of change with new solutions I think they are looking at funding new technology not old failing ideas.

DOE Secretary Chu Announces Changes to Expedite Economic Recovery Funding
Restructuring will lead to new investments in energy projects within months

www.energy.gov/news200...

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

I do not doubt that: << When you look at batteries that are currently being produced, the best anybody is doing is an ultra fine grind. >>. However, things are changing faster and faster every day. This has been a fact of life for over 50 years. Since the advent of cheap computers and then the Internet and WWW investing in yesterday’s technology has been a big problem. I want to know where the companies you post on your charts are pursuing new technology before I invest. There are IPO’s but I would prefer investing in established companies that adopt cutting edge technology and can ramp up production using all of this “Government Money” which is provided by American Taxpayers. McCain and Obama are not talking about supporting and funding current technology.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

Because of the Lithium battery overheating and fire problem, I actually considered the point you make: << the Volt must have power control circuits that are perfectly matched to the batteries the car will use>>. However I doubt that this power control is “hard wired”. A software modification could get around this problem. Even if chip software is not modifiable, in large production numbers, a replacement chip should not be very expensive.

On the topic of nanotechnology, the link I provided did not talk about grinding anything really fine. The economic construction of devices using nano technology including batteries and ultra-capacitors is the big problem. Grinding is a no brainer. The articles that I read talk about growing nanotubes etc not grinding. They mention encasing Lithium in carbon fullerenes, nanotubes etc to prevent expansion and heating problems. They mention the higher electrical conductivity of carbon nanotubes etc to speed charging and discharging. There may have been mostly grinding going on a few years ago, but that was yesterday.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

Consider what you said: <<While commenters consistently tell me that battery prices will plummet, nobody has ever explained where the fabled "economies of scale" are going to come from.>> Of course I am no Prophet willing to be stoned for a bad prophecy, but energy storage using nanotechnology is still in its infancy and growing at a truly astonishing pace. Every day I find something new being tried like a battery using both super capacitor and old lead acid technology. Why they did not use advanced lead acid is a mystery to me. Now I see something like this every day on the Technology Review email news, www.technologyreview.c.../ .

New technology is "where the fabled "economies of scale" are going to come from.". Very likely it will be nano-technology.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

Now I think we agree on most of the issues we have discussed since you say: <<you'll not hear me criticize the theory underlying the Volt>> and <<I also believe that over the short- to medium-term, lead-acid and lead-carbon are far more sensible.>>

Since GM is in love with Lithium I would like to see the Volt sold without a battery. Let the customer decide what battery to use. There is no reason why the producers of Lead-acid and lead-carbon batteries could not manufacture batteries that will fit and work in the Volt. With the automobile market being what it is, I would think that GM would be willing to let the customer decide. GM is not actually producing the batteries anyway. They might produce their own batteries in the U.S.A. in the future, so why not wait and see what their customers actually prefer? I do not see GM demanding that people use BP or Shell gasoline in their ICE vehicles.

If these lead based batteries cost much less and actually perform just as well as current lithium batteries GM is in no position to oppose such an idea. They should actually encourage the idea.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

At the price of electricity in central Ohio l calculated that the Volt should get the equivalent of 95 MPG when gasoline in $2.00 per gallon. Now at $3.00 a gallon, what it would cost with $100 oil, that would mean 1.5 times or 142 MPG equivalent. That only holds for commutes of 40 miles or less. The Volt generator powered by an ICE will supposedly get about the equivalent of 50 MPG to supply power to the electric engine on trips over 40 miles. Most of the working class, like me, commutes less than 35 miles each way, to and from work.

People are going to buy the Volt and we will see. The price of the Volt’s battery will go down and oil will go sky high. GM will price the first Volts to capture the market and gamble that the battery price will go down. Now if the Volt did not have an ICE powered generator that would be an entirely different case.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

smlcap,

Yasser Arafat and Al Gore have both won Nobel Peace Prizes. How long until these people realize that continued stupid selections can lead to loss of credibility? However we do need Federal control over interstate electrical power transmission just like we needed the Interstate Transportation Act. The Stimulus Bill should have placed much more emphasis on this type of infrastructure and much less of it on Pork. Expanding the Transmission Grid will allow many Wind, Solar, Geothermal, etc projects to go forward putting people to work to produce renewable battery charging power for EVs to replace our dependence on Terrorist Oil Fuel for polluting ICE vehicles. The U.S.A. could rapidly take the lead in producing Electric Vehicles, batteries and renewable sources of power and its efficient transmission. That could put everyone to work and pay our debts even after a tax cut. Politicians have no business supporting any particular standards, protocols, or religions in their legislation.

John Petersen,

Those stationary liquid metal batteries could be incorporated into the smartGRID to catch any power not used to charge EV batteries and flatten the power usage curve. The off-peak power concept and the waste associated with it make no sense using a 21st century smartGRID. Hopefully the Politicians will not put language into laws that will limit the use of technology. These clowns could include language that limits the development of technology that uses Thorium or Butanol or Algae bio fuel.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

This is very interesting and solves the problems associated with nuclear waste by using the waste to produce the power without wasting the time and effort needed to separate out enriched isotopes that can be used for bombs.

Traveling Wave Nuclear Reactor using nuclear waste or depleted uranium:
www.technologyreview.c...
www.technologyreview.c.../

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

The Space Shuttle was designed to run using an 8086 chip. It was only upgraded to a 80386 chip. Most of the power of today's latest chips is wasted processing graphics and very poorly written operating systems. It takes next to nothing to do the tasks of a smartMETER now and forever. smartMETERS and smartAPPLIANCES, like the Space Shuttle, also do not require huge amounts of computing power. Now the computers the Utility companies use to bill its customers and communicate to the smartMETERS can be easily upgraded to cost effective new chips when necessary. I doubt that the Utility company computers use a piggy Windows OS. Linux is a much better OS for server class computers. The latest versions of Linux will still very likely run on your old 80286 computer and would allow you to still do everything you want to do. Surfing the WWW might be a little slow because the old 80286 chip motherboards had slow graphics cards.

I was designing systems and leading projects to develop very sophisticated computer controlled manufacturing systems over 20 years ago. I know computers, big small and tiny. Al Gore, Obama, and that idiot W may all think that the smartGRID requires super computers, but I do not. Most of the work and cost to utilities involved in creating the smartGRID is the grunt work needed to replace many millions of old meters with smartMETERs. The rest is no big deal: installing software AMR (Automatic Meter Reading), CRC (Cooperative Response Center), SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition), etc software at the Utility's office. The customer will plug-in the smart devices in their homes.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John Petersen,

The computer chips that enable a smartMETER should not have to be replaced when its capabilities are upgraded to Gen 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. All the smartMETER chip does is send and receive data on the smartGRID with parameters and transaction IDs that are targeted at devices and or programs on their local HOME network or the Utility’s computers on the EXTERNAL network. That is what makes up the smartGRID and we can add capability without impacting what already exists using very limited hardware on the smartMETER.
All 58,000 members of Licking Rural Electrification in Central Ohio have smartMETERS now. We belong to a rural cooperative. It could be that we are more advanced than N.Y. City electric customers, but that just indicates that the nuts and bolts of the smartGRID are no big deal. Politicians, Lawyers, and various groups of undereducated constituents and clients are fighting the creation of Wind, Solar, etc power generation all over the U.S.A. Some are afraid of technology and some become rich and powerful by slowing change to a crawl. That is the mentality of the DARK AGES.

A 20 years from now new smart appliance I install, plug into my HOME Network will send a transaction ID and parameters to the same old smartMETER I have today and it will send them to the REALLY BIG COMPUTER owned by Licking Rural Electrification. That computer will look for the new smart appliance’s transaction ID on one of its modifiable tables and execute a program that will interpret the parameters and send a reply to the smartMETER that will send it to the new smart appliance in my home.

You said << Nobody is standing in the way of anything. In fact the biggest problem is public inertia and apathy. >>. All the public will need to do is plug in new devices. This is a plug and play, cut and paste world. The average person does not care or want to be BOTHERED with esoteric technology. The Politicians and Lawyers will fight every new appliance thinking that new appliances will be transmitting their owner’s financial information to thieves over the power lines. I have already heard such crap on FOX and CNN.