Comments on John Appel's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-appel/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/116960-how-will-losing-wal-mart-exclusivity-impact-cott-corp?source=feed#comment-578409 578409 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 05:12:09 -0400
If WMT switches suppliers, there may be no price point at which I would buy the new soda. So, while I appreciate that Wal-Mart wishes to offer its customers low prices, they must understand that you can't slap a label on dishwater and expect repeat customers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128401-jamba-s-new-ceo-providing-a-boost?source=feed#comment-569405 569405 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:23:11 -0400 may not be the best strategy for this economy. While the company has noted that the stores have positive contribution margins, that might not be enough to counter lower G&A leverage and higher credit costs that franchisees traditionally suffer.

JMBA new product related, I have been watching a test store in San Diego near the office, that is selling the test sandwiches/wraps/salads. The sandwiches, salads and wraps are of reasonable value and flavor profile, good POP and are selling. However, due to the price (about $5.50) and the price of the regular smoothie (about $3.95), the existing $2 instant discount efforts will need to continue. $7 at JMBA for lunch is about the same as many of the casual dining operators, right now.

John A. Gordon
Pacific Management Consulting group
pacificmanagementconsu...

Chain Restaurant Earnings and Economics Experts]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128401-jamba-s-new-ceo-providing-a-boost?source=feed#comment-522156 522156 Thu, 28 May 2009 20:22:07 -0400
I'm neither a shareholder of either stocks, but I believe in them confidently.

-Paul Meyer]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128401-jamba-s-new-ceo-providing-a-boost?source=feed#comment-458648 458648 Stability in the CA economy (i.e., job market and house prices stabilize). > A hot summer in CA > Commodity prices remain at current levels and raw materials do not spike > Gas prices stay the same > SBUX, MCD and Dunkin fail miserably at their smoothie attempts. > Travel picks up I've come to realize that JMBA's survival not only depends on their ability to execute but on the above strong external foces to be continually aligned on its favor for a sustainable period of time. It is a tough bet. JMBA remains a speculative play, only put your Vegas money on this one. ]]> Fri, 10 Apr 2009 08:41:04 -0400
The next 12 months are make or break for JMBA. Aside from good execution from its new management, the company will need all the stars aligned to its favor including:

> Stability in the CA economy (i.e., job market and house prices stabilize).
> A hot summer in CA
> Commodity prices remain at current levels and raw materials do not spike
> Gas prices stay the same
> SBUX, MCD and Dunkin fail miserably at their smoothie attempts.
> Travel picks up

I've come to realize that JMBA's survival not only depends on their ability to execute but on the above strong external foces to be continually aligned on its favor for a sustainable period of time. It is a tough bet.

JMBA remains a speculative play, only put your Vegas money on this one.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128401-jamba-s-new-ceo-providing-a-boost?source=feed#comment-448367 448367 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 16:00:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128401-jamba-s-new-ceo-providing-a-boost?source=feed#comment-445656 445656 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 16:56:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128401-jamba-s-new-ceo-providing-a-boost?source=feed#comment-444885 444885 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 07:25:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119013-xl-capital-short-interest-poised-to-drop-will-the-stock-pop?source=feed#comment-400260 400260 Mon, 23 Feb 2009 14:02:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114710-cic-s-stake-in-jamba-should-be-fruitful?source=feed#comment-387803 387803 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 16:55:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119013-xl-capital-short-interest-poised-to-drop-will-the-stock-pop?source=feed#comment-378097 378097 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 09:07:48 -0500
The more important thing fundamentally is that the 7% units increase the company's equity capital by $745 million, which is good (although book value per share increases only slightly because of the increase in shares). If the related notes are remarketed successfully, total capital increases by $745 million as well, which is even better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97478-rumors-of-jamba-juice-s-demise-greatly-overstated?source=feed#comment-377718 377718 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 20:59:27 -0500
The two companies do not compare well, as SKFI is entirely a franchise operation, while JMBA is mostly corporate, with a few franchisees through acquisition of smaller chains and some co-branding efforts with Safeway and others. But JMBA remains overwhelmingly corporate owned.

But the main reason that JMBA is NOT positioned to succeed is that they fail to deliver the best product in their niche - several competitors have superior products, and they fail to deliver the promise of healthier food choices - again, some competitors actually deliver the healthier choices that JMBA only promises. Although, from a pure marketing standpoint, they are clearly the industry leader. How long will the buying public be fooled by JMBA's product?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116960-how-will-losing-wal-mart-exclusivity-impact-cott-corp?source=feed#comment-372116 372116 Sat, 31 Jan 2009 15:23:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116960-how-will-losing-wal-mart-exclusivity-impact-cott-corp?source=feed#comment-371072 371072 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:54:02 -0500
Also, it is possible that under current US economic condition the volume that is getting off of WMT system can be sold at higher prices to other clients and be more profitable. (see WMT policies regarding suppliers in Alice1 comment).

Its hard to see though where can they do 500M USD business elsewhere w/ higher prices.

its not good news for COT but implications remain to be seen, hopefully, if management is any good, they can turn this into their advantage.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116960-how-will-losing-wal-mart-exclusivity-impact-cott-corp?source=feed#comment-369585 369585 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 06:05:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-358087 358087 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:46:04 -0500
I heard Mr. White speak recently and he appears competent and capable. Still this is a longish play. I get to a forecast of $1.30 in mid-2010. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115066-why-the-mysterious-silence-from-cott-corporation?source=feed#comment-357662 357662 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:32:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115066-why-the-mysterious-silence-from-cott-corporation?source=feed#comment-357490 357490 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:42:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115066-why-the-mysterious-silence-from-cott-corporation?source=feed#comment-357377 357377 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 08:13:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108117-reinsurer-stocks-a-fear-driven-market-creates-opportunity?source=feed#comment-346914 346914 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:02:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-345130 345130 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 03:21:20 -0500
I am actually a former employee from middle management who was suckered into buying a great deal of stock before losing almost everything I had invested. I was a fool, and listened to those above as they put a super positive spin on a sinking company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-344724 344724 Jambasinking, please disclose that you are indeed a shorting Jamba. > ]]> Sat, 03 Jan 2009 02:52:40 -0500
IMO, the break up with Nestle is good for the brand and store profits, something the new CEO, James White, a branding guru from Safeway understands. Another positive, the company has licensing agreements for onsite kiosks with traffic generators including Safeway, Vons, Target, Whole Foods, and Pavillions. The turn around plan is emphasizing growth at airports, college campus and these non-traditional store locations. In addition to geographic growth, there is also potential for success in the healthy quick-breakfast sector with their brand and conscientious customer base.

Bottomline, this IS a risky play with the potential for multi-bagger returns if new management is successful with the turn-around (pathetic previous management got them into this hole).



On Jan 03 02:11 AM User 271292 wrote:

> Jambasinking, please disclose that you are indeed a shorting Jamba.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-344715 344715 My analysis: Jamba is soon to be bankrupt and all investors should > bail out now. They have already began closing their stores in earnest, > trying to salvage something, but the core problem has always been > the top management's love of wasteful spending. Even with a new CEO > (who happens to have never even been a CEO before) this company's > prospects look terrible. Huge consistent losses, wastful spending, > tons of ideas and new innovations scraped because they were unpopular, > and super costly breakfast launch that failed....all of this adds > up to a company made of idiots who don't know what they are doing. > > > It is my sincere suspision that the author of this article is actually > a PR attempt from Jamba to gain momentum for itself. Many times in > earlier articles, several people would all say how they've lost so > much money in this stock, and ONE person would step in and defend > the company and talk about all its upsides without addressing the > issues all the other people made. The person's words were written > so well and overly positive that you could tell that this was a person > on the inside and possibly a marketing ploy to send out SOME positive > news. After reading and re-reading this article, I assume this person > is also a Jamba insider, paid to present a case that Jamba is not > yet finished. > > Nice try...but after watching a $10 drop in this stock down to 50 > cents a share, I think people are smart enough to kiss Jamba good-bye > and watch as they end up closing everything. Based on all their previous > decisions as a company, this ship has no where to go but down.]]> Sat, 03 Jan 2009 02:11:48 -0500

On Dec 24 02:04 PM Jambasinking wrote:

> My analysis: Jamba is soon to be bankrupt and all investors should
> bail out now. They have already began closing their stores in earnest,
> trying to salvage something, but the core problem has always been
> the top management's love of wasteful spending. Even with a new CEO
> (who happens to have never even been a CEO before) this company's
> prospects look terrible. Huge consistent losses, wastful spending,
> tons of ideas and new innovations scraped because they were unpopular,
> and super costly breakfast launch that failed....all of this adds
> up to a company made of idiots who don't know what they are doing.
>
>
> It is my sincere suspision that the author of this article is actually
> a PR attempt from Jamba to gain momentum for itself. Many times in
> earlier articles, several people would all say how they've lost so
> much money in this stock, and ONE person would step in and defend
> the company and talk about all its upsides without addressing the
> issues all the other people made. The person's words were written
> so well and overly positive that you could tell that this was a person
> on the inside and possibly a marketing ploy to send out SOME positive
> news. After reading and re-reading this article, I assume this person
> is also a Jamba insider, paid to present a case that Jamba is not
> yet finished.
>
> Nice try...but after watching a $10 drop in this stock down to 50
> cents a share, I think people are smart enough to kiss Jamba good-bye
> and watch as they end up closing everything. Based on all their previous
> decisions as a company, this ship has no where to go but down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-337690 337690 Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:04:27 -0500
It is my sincere suspision that the author of this article is actually a PR attempt from Jamba to gain momentum for itself. Many times in earlier articles, several people would all say how they've lost so much money in this stock, and ONE person would step in and defend the company and talk about all its upsides without addressing the issues all the other people made. The person's words were written so well and overly positive that you could tell that this was a person on the inside and possibly a marketing ploy to send out SOME positive news. After reading and re-reading this article, I assume this person is also a Jamba insider, paid to present a case that Jamba is not yet finished.

Nice try...but after watching a $10 drop in this stock down to 50 cents a share, I think people are smart enough to kiss Jamba good-bye and watch as they end up closing everything. Based on all their previous decisions as a company, this ship has no where to go but down. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111345-aig-s-bond-sale-is-no-cause-for-celebration?source=feed#comment-334628 334628 Sat, 20 Dec 2008 12:48:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-334127 334127 Fri, 19 Dec 2008 13:32:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111345-aig-s-bond-sale-is-no-cause-for-celebration?source=feed#comment-333972 333972 Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:31:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-333905 333905 Mr. Appel- I don't see how you can be right, especially now that > the Nestle deal is (at least temporarily) kaput. Did you know about > the production problems and shutdown when you wrote your this posting? > If not, how does the suspension of the Nestle program affect your > analysis?]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 10:45:15 -0500



On Dec 19 09:50 AM spincus614 wrote:

> Mr. Appel- I don't see how you can be right, especially now that
> the Nestle deal is (at least temporarily) kaput. Did you know about
> the production problems and shutdown when you wrote your this posting?
> If not, how does the suspension of the Nestle program affect your
> analysis?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111558-jamba-juice-should-bear-fruit-by-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-333846 333846 Fri, 19 Dec 2008 09:50:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111345-aig-s-bond-sale-is-no-cause-for-celebration?source=feed#comment-333164 333164 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 12:01:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111345-aig-s-bond-sale-is-no-cause-for-celebration?source=feed#comment-333150 333150 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 11:49:08 -0500