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  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    cparmerlee, et al,

    I'm sure I'm only part way through this debate on growth so apologies if there is another comment above mine pointing out the same information (I'll be at the bottom of this long thread because of the way comments are added to the page).

    Let's take Tesla's guidance and projections to see what happens.

    We know that they produced about 22,500 cars in 2013, and are aiming to hit 500,000 cars in 2020 as this number would have Fremont running at full capacity and also matches the 2020 capability of the proposed Gigafactory. If we look at linear growth (increasing by a constant amount year on year) over that period we have:

    2013: 22,500
    2014: 90,714
    2015: 158,929
    2016: 227,143
    2017: 295,357
    2018: 363,571
    2019: 431,786
    2020: 500,000

    Now look at what most investors and analysts would understand by exponential growth (increasing by a constant percentage year on year - or "compounded" growth - in this case 55.74%):

    2013: 22,500
    2014: 35,041
    2015: 54,573
    2016: 84,992
    2017: 132,366
    2018: 206,145
    2019: 321,049
    2020: 500,000

    As others have pointed out, the actual numbers will not be exactly as above due to discontinuities in production - new models added, downtime for changing or adding extra production facilities etc. - but they give a strong indication of the forward trend.

    Tesla have already guided for 35,000 vehicles for this year, and stated that they expect in the region of 60,000 for next year, both numbers being very close to the projected exponential growth towards 500,000 in 2020.

    Unfortunately we will have to be very patient to see how the numbers beyond 2015 fit this trend, but so far it looks much closer to an exponential fit than to a linear fit to me.

    Disclosure: long TSLA
    Aug 22 08:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]

    ""BMW has old technology" ? Where did you get that from? The i3 with its carbon fiber body, EV operation and the i8 the only all wheel drive electric vehicle around I think".

    The i3 is a short range EV with a range extender, and I expect many buyers add the REX unit for range security. Unless they really only want it as a commuter car, of course.

    It really is no better than any other range crippled car without the REX, and even that has such a laughably short gas range and limited power that it is only suitable as an emergency backup to get you home! In terms of being an EV it's little better than the old EV1.

    The i8 looks very nice but it has an extremely restricted electric only range. You could use it as an electric commuter car but don't expect any real electric only range if you drive it like the sports car that it is! In reality, in spite of it's complexity, it is just an electrically assisted gas car. As a sports car it is six years too late, and much too expensive, to compete with the Tesla Roadster!

    Oh, by the way, Here's a quote for you from the Tesla Roadster Wikipedia page:

    "Tesla's designers chose to construct the body panels using resin transfer molded carbon fiber composite to minimize weight; this choice makes the Roadster one of the least expensive cars with an entirely carbon fiber skin".

    Tesla's soon to be launched Model X was always intended to be All Wheel Drive for the top models but, presumably due to low demand for the rear wheel drive entry level car, all versions of the Model X will now have All Wheel Drive.

    BMW is still playing catch-up.
    Aug 22 07:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla An Energy Company? [View article]

    The Tesla cars use a 12V lead-acid battery because most car electrical components and accessories are designed around that 12V supply. We've got used to using the 2V cells in our transport. 6v, 12V and 24V are the standard voltages in transport systems.

    Unfortunately Li-Ion batteries have a typically 3.6V to 3.7V nominal terminal voltage and that does not easily give the required low voltage supplies. Perhaps a better solution would be to use NiMH cells as in Panasonic's 12V 95Ah EV95 battery. Each cell is 1.2V so the standard voltages are easy to achieve.

    As to longevity, the original Toyota RAV4-EV used 24 of these batteries (288V at 95Ah) and there are still several hundred of the cars on the road using batteries that are now more than a decade old. Sadly Panasonic were prevented from continuing production after the initial run (search for Cobasys and patent encumbrance) but this type of battery is now thoroughly "road tested" and far more reliable than the lead-acid type. They also handle repeated abuse much better than Li-Ion.

    Perhaps there is a good entry point here for a manufacturer to step in and give us a better alternative to the ubiquitous lead-acid 12V car battery.
    Aug 19 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla extends warranty on Model S sedan to eight years [View news story]

    Let's wait and see where these HFC cars are initially launched in any quantity.

    Toyota and the other HFCV makers are worldwide companies with a visible presence in pretty much every territory. So if the launch is worldwide with no preference other than the expected car market uptake for each region then the manufacturer means business. If it's primarily in places with the stricter emissions regulations, carbon credits or other handy deals then you can call it a compliance car.

    Look to CA first. That's the giveaway.
    Aug 19 06:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla extends warranty on Model S sedan to eight years [View news story]

    Musk and co. will already have a very good idea of the failure rate in drive train components from the current cars on the road as they have the telemetry from the cars as well as driver information.

    For this reason it will probably be quite difficult to make a fraudulent claim that your car has problems if the data trail shows a perfectly operating drive system. More likely that Tesla will know about any potential problems in your car before you are aware of them!
    Aug 19 05:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    pot pie,

    "Until the day you pull into the supercharger and it's full and there are six cars ahead of you".

    You've been told this before so please don't trot out this stupid comment again. A Supercharger doesn't have only one charging bay!

    The average Supercharger has six bays, heavily used ones have more.

    But let's go with only six, OK?

    Most folk charge for around 30 minutes so that's how long you'll have to wait if there are six cars in front of you: six cars and six charging bays - an average of one car starting charging (and ending its charge) every 5 minutes or so.

    Tesla Motors know the frequency of use of their Superchargers and add extra bays if they are needed for the more heavily used stations. You don't need a special place to charge up - it's essentially a parking spot with a charger - that's all - so it's easy to add more bays.

    Now let's say that the Supercharger station has twelve bays. That gives you a 15 minutes wait on average with six cars ahead of you. And while your car is charging you can go do something else. You don't have to watch over it like when you're pumping gas.

    But then, I guess you've NEVER had to wait in line for a spare pump at the gas station. Just time yourself next time you're filling up on a busy day.
    Aug 18 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The Coming Automotive App Economy [View article]

    "24.7m miles = 40m kilometres. And "to date" meaning what? How many years? Let's assume 5 years. In 5 years, I drive, as a typical long-distance commuter, 250k kilometres".


    "A measly 160 cars equvalent. This is less than nothing".

    A false argument. If you drive 250,000 km in five years, and use the car ONLY for commuting, that translates into roughly 200 km a day round trip (allowing for a five day week and two or three weeks off each year for vacationing).

    This is well within the range of a Model S so you would never need to use a supercharger in daily driving! You could charge at home and have a "full tank" every morning.

    Superchargers are only needed for long journeys, beyond the range of a single charge. This is why they are used only infrequently by most drivers.

    There are currently some 40,000 Tesla cars on the road, and with the average driver traveling 20,000 km per year they will now be covering around 800 million km per year on electricity alone. Yes, much of that electricity is still provided by fossil fuels but the mix is shifting to renewables year by year, and as the number of Tesla cars increases the gasoline free kilometres will rapidly rise and the overall pollution due to the "long tailpipe" effect will decrease.

    Your hatred for Tesla is showing!
    Aug 17 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The One Major Item That Concerns Me [View article]

    "different chemical reactions and a time delay".

    True, but when the current supply eventually runs out we may just have to wait a few more million years to restock.....
    Aug 13 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The High Cost Of Disruption [View article]
    Hi Mario,

    To the best of my knowledge Tesla are currently using KUKA robots. If you are in the US you can find them trading OTC as KUKAY.

    But KUKA supply many markets so I don't think Tesla will make a big difference to their price - at least not for a year or two!
    Aug 13 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Earnings: Estimating Tesla's EPS For 2016 And 2017 [View article]

    "Can anyone explain how 500,000 Tesla sales out of perhaps 25,000,000 auto sales worldwide in 2020 is A DISRUPTION!!!???"

    Every disruption starts small and grows.

    500,000 Tesla vehicles is small fry compared with 25,000,000 but look at the bigger picture. This is a company that really started producing in quantity just two years ago. As other commenters have said, they have gone from single digits per week to about 800 in that short time span, and the ramp-up continues.

    Tesla will not stop growing with 500,000 cars per year in 2020, they will continue as long as it takes to get the world off fossil fuels. THAT's disruption, and Musk's stated goal for the company.

    Already we are seeing other manufacturers bringing EVs to market and this will be unstoppable once the general public realise the advantages of moving away from ICEVs. Even Bob Lutz praises Tesla for what they have achieved so far:

    The small number of compliance EVs produced in the late 1990s/early 2000s were hardly noticed by the car buying public, except in CA where they were needed because of the subsequently overturned Zero Emissions ruling. This time Tesla is beginning to be noticed by the World - not just CA or even just the US.

    Most of the Tesla watchers today are either EV enthusiasts, car enthusiasts or investors who have seen something strange happening with TSLA. Outside of a few territories Tesla Motors are still largely unknown. If I ask people here in the UK they may remember the Top Gear program with the Roadster from a few years ago. Talk about EVs and they will have heard of the Nissan Leaf, the Toyota Prius (not strictly speaking an EV) and maybe even the Sinclair C5 if they're old enough (that was a peculiar little 3 wheeler that was slower than a bicycle and did nothing to help the public's impression of EVs).

    But the word is spreading that it is possible to make a truly compelling EV that can go head to head with the majors. This genie is not going to be crammed back in the bottle.

    Read the comments from owners comparing their previous cars, some of them well above $100,000, with the Model S and you begin to see a trend taking shape. A very large percentage of those owners say they will never again buy an ICEV, and now thoroughly dislike the ICE driving experience.

    Tesla have single handedly started many other other companies looking to alternative fuel or hybrid vehicles. Almost every one of those needs an electric drive train in one form or another and the race is on to develop better batteries. As the batteries improve (and they will) all these vehicles get better, either in cost or range or both. As Bob Lutz said in the video above, once EVs get to 400 miles range at a cost comparable to that of ICEVs, that's pretty much it for ICEVs.

    Hydrogen FC cars (still essentially fossil fuel vehicles with todays supply chain) and hybrids will slowly disappear from personal transportation as EVs penetrate the market and I believe that the tipping point to the transition to pure EVs is a lot closer than most would think.

    Certainly the ICE will continue for a few decades, after all, most cars run for at least a decade, often changing hands many times until they are finally crushed. But new sales are where the change will be seen first, and then there will be a greater visibility on the streets. Tesla will be at the forefront of that move to EVs.

    And at that point you will know that "A Change is Gonna Come"!
    Aug 13 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Order Backlog And Why It Is Worth More Than Porsche [View article]
    solucky and Logical,

    I don't know if other parts of the world are like the UK, maybe you can enlighten me, but here in the UK Tesla only "advertise" their test drive events on their own website. Of course, others can spread the information but that is not up to Tesla.

    So, essentially, you can only find out about test drive events by actively searching for them on Tesla's own website. They are NOT advertised in the local media.

    In a recent event here I attended in the hope of having a quick run in the car, even if only as a passenger. Unfortunately for me the test drives were already fully booked for the whole three days before the first day opened and there were no spare slots or cancellations.

    As for advertising the event, I had to ask where Tesla had the car when I got there! No advertising, no flags or flyers, not even a sign to point the way. In all probability not even the local residents knew that there was a Model S on their streets.

    The car was out on a test drive when I got there and simply parked at a convenient charge point when it returned. It could have been any other car for all the fanfares announcing its arrival.

    That is how heavily Tesla advertise.
    Aug 10 12:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]

    "I have yet to meet a 68 year old man who believes in conserving oil and switching to alternatives".

    With respect, I am 68 years old this year and 100% behind Tesla (and for that matter any other manufacturer who shows a real commitment to alternatives to fossil fuelled vehicles - I include fracked methane/hydrogen amongst the fossil fuel users). For what it's worth I also believe that what little oil we have left is too precious to simply burn away forever, and we are already dangerously late in switching to alternative energy sources.

    I will NEVER again buy a fossil fuelled vehicle - four wheels or two - I drive both but do not own one now. Until I have an EV I will rely on either my own feet, my bicycle or public transport, depending on journey length. The only reason that I do not own a Model S is that it is simply too big for me here in the UK. The Model 3 will be much more suitable for my needs.

    Yes - I am long TSLA from the mid double digits and I expect Tesla to continue to execute as guided.

    By the way - I'm not the oldest by a long way rooting for Tesla. Check out Vico Confino. He's a very young 81 and drives a Model S. :-)
    Aug 10 07:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Growth About To Run Out Of Charge? [View article]

    Car to Grid sounds very good to help load levelling until you look more closely at the concept.

    There could be circumstances where quite a lot of power is needed to supplement the grid and in such conditions any connected car will lose range. Not a good idea if your car is connected and you unexpectedly need it urgently. You may think you have a couple hundred miles range because it's plugged in, but here it is with only a few tens of miles and not enough for your needs!

    Far, far simpler to follow the Tesla route. Let the cars charge as needed and have a separate distributed storage system to support the grid. That distributed storage can be used in anything from a single house to a complete factory. In that way every car can have a full charge when needed and the grid is not stressed by unexpected demand. If you have a few 10s of kWh at home you can even recharge your car if the grid goes down. Not so if your car is now feeding the grid and there's nothing left over for driving!

    Tesla Fremont already has a 2 MWh stationary storage system in operation and this will soon be increased to 4 MWh. This gives the Fremont plant a much more consistent power demand profile and hence needs lower peak current feeds from the Utilities as they no longer have to cater for heavy start-up loads (it also means that Fremont will have a lower Utility bill as the tariff is based, in part, on peak current demand). A second very useful feature is that the battery effectively gives the whole plant a UPS to allow for a controlled shut down in the event of a sustained blackout.
    Aug 6 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is A $320 Price Target Reasonable? [View article]

    I guess the rest of Europe must be a long way behind the UK then!

    I have an incoming utility fuse of 100 A at the European standard of 230V. That's a maximum of 23 kW. Here in the UK it's normal to have 32 A trips on the general power circuits and 40 A or 50 A trips for showers and electric cooking ranges.

    Maybe you should talk with your utility!
    Aug 4 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    Hi Paulo,

    I don't mind in the least clicking on your articles even if others do! At least you write good articles and bring out many points to make us think, unlike some who obviously don't really follow Tesla and write very poor articles.

    Please keep writing. Good luck with your investing and let's see how this plays out in the future. :-)
    Aug 2 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment