Last week, the Fed extended its emergency economic powers, which include lending to the money center banks at zero interest. A few days later, the Fed's plan was reinforced by similar announcements from the rest of the G-20. The road map the authorities are providing for the near-term global economy can't be much clearer. There will be no cessation of the seemingly endless supply of cheap dollars being pumped into the financial system.

With the world apparently in complete accord on the need for ever more liquidity, stock markets are staging an easy-money rally. The main line media is almost euphoric. But what should investors make of this seemingly good news?

Last week, to the delight of its media cheerleaders, the government announced that economic growth had returned and the recession had ended. But before we start celebrating one quarter of modest growth, we should realize the only force driving this apparent recovery is an enormous increase in government spending. To finance its largesse, the government is now borrowing at a rate that has ordinary citizens and the international community extremely concerned.

Leading into the first election season under Obama's reign, this unprecedented government borrowing and spending is creating a false sense of security. The activity has allowed GDP to increase despite stagnation in corporate and consumer spending.

Over the past two years, the federal government and the Federal Reserve have dispersed trillions of public dollars, run up enormous deficits, and kept interest rates at zero. In just about any economic textbook, this combination of policies would be described as the perfect recipe for inflation. Yet, with the exception of the usual increases in health care and education, prices by and large are not rising. Many have concluded that our economic leadership has simply outsmarted the textbooks.

The benign CPI figures are serving as a rallying point behind which the financial talking-heads are forming a parade of optimism. The low CPI is their 'proof' that inflation is not a pressing concern. This view is two dimensional.

Earlier this year, I predicted that the 2009 rally in U.S. stocks could bring the Dow Jones Index as high as 10,000. It looks like that level has been achieved. If, at this point, the index reverses course, I would have made a fairly good prediction.

However, it is important to get beyond the charts and look at the fundamentals. The furious six-month rally in the stock market has certainly not been mirrored by the economy as a whole. Instead, the country remains in recession, with unemployment continuing to rise and corporate earnings continuing to decline. This has pushed up trading multiples to the point that where value is now a distant memory. How could the stock markets have recovered so strongly in the face of economic recession?

On October 6th, The Independent newspaper of London set off shock-waves around the world with a report that secret meetings were held between the OPEC states, China, Russia, and others, in which the participants charted a course toward a new world reserve currency. Not surprisingly, the U.S. dollar nosedived on the news. The rout was only stemmed by Saudi and Chinese officials publicly denying the story.

Whether or not this particular reporter got all his facts straight is largely immaterial. If such meetings have not been occurring, they soon will be. All the ingredients to stir financial discontent in these nations are present. It's not a question of if we will move to a post-dollar world, but when.

As a part-time member of the press corps, I had the good fortune to attend many of the public sessions at last week's G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh. As impressive as it was to closely witness the gathering of countries representing some 85 percent of the world's GDP (along with the governors of the World Bank, the IMF and the European Central Bank), it was equally remarkable to witness the immense security forces deployed to restrain those who feel the gathering harbored the forces most responsible for the world's economic and financial problems.

The meeting got off to an unexpectedly gloomy start as President Obama, accompanied by UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicholas Sarkozy, jointly announced the discovery of secret Iranian nuclear facilities. These revelations were eye opening, and the mood in the room was nothing short of electric. This contrasted sharply with comments offered the day before by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, who reiterated his country's reluctance to impose tougher sanctions on Iran. As a result, the risks of continued conflict in the Middle East remain a global preoccupation, with major implications for the prices of gold and oil.

The Obama Administration waited until the wee hours of September 11th, 2009 to quietly inform Americans of its decision to slap new tariffs against low-end tire imports from China. Coming only days before this week's important G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, an occasion when China will likely renew its campaign to push the world towards a post-dollar economy, the timing of the announcement seems particularly ill-advised.

To be frank, it is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. It is not surprising that China instantly retaliated with their own duties on U.S. auto parts and agricultural products.

Readers familiar with my views know that I believe that the current stock market rally is a bullish chapter in an otherwise bearish novel. In the spring of this year, I had said I would not be surprised if the Dow were to hit 10,000 by the end of summer.

While I was a little too optimistic on that particular forecast, it now looks as if U.S. stock markets are a bit ‘toppy' and a reversal may be in the cards. Seven factors, five tactical and two strategic, cause me to see a change in the wind.

In the second quarter of 2008, when it became clear that bankrupted financial institutions would be bailed out by the federal government, gold did a funny thing.

In the wake of a financial crisis of that magnitude, one normally would have expected asset prices, including gold, to plummet. Most observers expected the metal to dip from the $800 level down to $600, or below. Instead, gold held up well during the teeth of the crisis, and has recently increased to just over $1,000.

In the second quarter of 2008, when it became clear that bankrupted financial institutions would be bailed out by the federal government, gold did a funny thing. In the wake of a financial crisis of that magnitude, one normally would have expected asset prices, including gold, to plummet. Most observers expected the metal to dip from the $800 level down to $600, or below. Instead, gold held up well during the teeth of the crisis, and has recently increased to just over $1,000.

The biggest change in the gold market has been the unwillingness of certain governments to sell their gold. Some powerful states, such as China, are beginning to hoard gold and to become net sellers of U.S. Treasury securities. In addition, private investors are buying so many gold coins that fabrication plants are months behind on physical deliveries. In short, individuals, institutions and governments are losing faith in paper currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. Despite the opportunity cost associated with trading interest-bearing government securities for pay-to-store bullion, they are buying gold.

Politicians often find scapegoats for America’s economic woes. It is rare – if ever – that they point the finger at themselves. Yet, the basic cause of the current severe economic problem lies in the machinations of government.

It is clear to even a casual observer that Congress has abused its power to tax and spend. It has taxed success to subsidize failure. It has purchased votes by enacting an unending stream of entitlement programs, financed by taxation, foreign debt and a progressive degradation of the U.S. paper dollar.

Despite vocal criticism of the Federal Reserve’s stewardship of the economy over the past decade, President Obama’s renomination of Ben Bernanke to a second term as Fed Chairman nevertheless served to reassure and boost financial markets.

While it is true that markets tend to crave predictability from government, rewarding the continuation of horrible Bush-era policies is perhaps pushing the boundaries of nostalgia. More interestingly, President Obama, who campaigned for ‘change,’ has clearly come down once again on the side of continuity.

Despite growing concerns about the growth in Federal spending, voiced this week by none other than Warren Buffett, Washington seems determined to keep its foot on the money pumping accelerator for as long as it can. But even though Washington continues to ignore the realities, alarm bells are beginning to ring at town halls across the country.

Last week the Fed left its key short-term rates frozen at 0 to 0.25 percent, enabling banks to borrow at near zero and reap spreads as high as 6 to 24 percent. The Fed also continued its policy of paying interest on banks' reserves, further boosting Wall Street's bottom line. The government has decided to save the banks, no matter how much the public has to suffer.

The monstrous typhoon that pounded away at coastal areas of the Pacific last weekend certainly qualified as a disaster for anyone who happened to be in its path. But for those of us safely in bed, the storm not only provided some remarkable meteorological footage, but also a stealth lesson in economics.

The most dramatic image, which involved a water torrent sucking away the sand beneath a stoutly built six-story hotel, struck me as an apt metaphor for the current economic environment. As the hotel’s foundations became exposed, the building toppled over like a massive domino. It was a vivid reminder that no structure, no matter how mighty, is safe if its foundation is weak.

Anyone looking for thrills these days should forget roller coasters and skydiving. Instead, simply buy a few shares of U.S. stock. The past year has reminded us how truly stomach-churning the financial ride can be.

And after a white-knuckled drop in 2008, investors who held on are now enjoying a dizzying ascent. In the past five months alone, the S&P has risen by 22 percent and the NASDAQ by 33 percent. Emerging markets are back almost to their pre-recession levels. Even individual American stocks have performed in a stellar manner. Apple (AAPL), Cisco (CSCO) and Oracle (ORCL) have all risen by over 200 percent. Ford, an aging relic once given up for dead, has risen by 268 percent!

In recent weeks, the financial world has been dazzled by strikingly high earnings reported by our leading investment banks... or at least what we used to call investment banks. The numbers are reminiscent of another era - the one that came to a crashing end last September. Today's euphoria is keyed to the record $3.44 billion second quarter profit announced by that branch office of the Treasury Department also known as Goldman Sachs (GS). Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and State Street (STT) also chipped in with strong numbers.

The seeming health of these institutions, which are often referred to as the "backbone" of the U.S. economy, is currently being cited as strong proof that economic recovery is at hand. This conclusion is based on selective memory and dubious logic.

As 2009 moves past its midpoint, many market participants are briskly trying to forget the carnage of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. But, before we get lost in the euphoria of the 36% Dow rally in the spring/summer of this year, a little hindsight is in order.

In March, the Dow had plunged to 6,547, or some 53 percent down from its nominal 14,164 high in 2007. Despite the recent gains, we are still nearly 40% below the 2007 peak. This is a brutal truth that everyone seems to be ignoring.

Last week, major banks announced they would no longer offer cash for the IOUs written by the state of California. At the same time, China proposed that the U.S. dollar be replaced as the world's official reserve currency. Although seemingly unrelated, these two developments have at their root the same issue: uneasy creditors.

Inspired by Washington's profligacy, California's Democratic majority long pursued a policy of populist politics, supercharged by referendums, which called for increasingly massive expenditures. Exploding deficits were the natural result. Now, it has reached the point where holders and potential buyers of California debt have lost confidence in the state's ability to ever repay.

In economics, as in many other “soft sciences,” facts are often overshadowed by theories. The dominant economic theory currently in vogue is that the massive government stimuli orchestrated by the Bush and Obama administrations would produce an economic recovery by the end of this year.

Thus, it is no surprise that media cheerleaders have seized on the recent steep, but thinly traded, rally to find the facts that appear to fit the theory. From where do these talking heads draw this conclusion?

Through its rhetoric and actions, the Obama Administration has made it clear that no matter the current or future costs, the federal government will not allow a collapse of the banking system. The resulting aura of certitude has, in turn, encouraged investors to roll the dice one more time. Some of these investors are likely trying to make good prior investment losses through speculative trading in U.S. equities. The surety of the government guarantee has sadly allowed them to overlook the fact that U.S. corporate earnings continue to fall.

So, as is the case with all government guarantees, the risks our economy faces are now disproportionate to the opportunities. Haven't we been down this road before?