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John Chiem

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  • Why Housing Will Surge In The Next 5 Years [View article]
    @TFCAB: Value of land holding comes down to scarcity. There just isn't enough good land left to build on up and down the California coast, yet have the expertise and experience to entitled them. We all understand California fiscal problems, but it is still a very desirable place to live for many. Even if you look at some of the worst hit areas in California (San Bernardino, Stockton, Patterson), they are recovering quickly with companies like Amazon building enormous distribution centers providing tons of jobs in those hard hit areas. Last I checked, inventory levels are at historic lows even in those cities. Also, keep in mind that land is one of the largest cost in building a home in California, and for most builders, their new communities are built on land that was purchased 2 years ago at the bottom.
    @Wallstreetdebunker: We are actually in agreement with a higher growth in multi-family mix vs. single family. I am already seeing it at the local levels in the metro area where housing shortage is at the extreme. Building codes in SF are proposing apartment units as small as 220 square feet to fill the shortage in housing. All of this is just more supporting data of my macro view point which continues to be an issue of a shortage in supply.
    Jan 5 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Housing Will Surge In The Next 5 Years [View article]
    First of all, Happy Holidays to everyone in the forum. Thank you for all the comments and feedback. This article is target to provide a general very large macro point of general trends in housing. Eventually, all real estate is local. I can only comment on what I see locally in the SF Bay Area, and being in the trenches, all the macro data lines up to the local data and buyer's behavior in and down the California coast. @DonPaul-O: I hope to write a second follow-up article on the local market and on bulk REO (which most people are underestimating the impact on the "shadow inventory").

    My own background is in hi-tech business management and investment real estate in home building construction. I was fortunate in my previous career and Real estate is only my second career.
    Dec 26 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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