After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
Personally, I consider myself VERY conservative when it comes to investing and trading. For me, the higher the market goes, the more nervous/bearish I get. Thus, once we approach the previous all-time highs in the S&P I will be lightening up dramatically. A 10% - 20% correction would seem plausible to me at that point, setting up for much more favorable re-entry. I am encouraged by this week's Barron's cover story which talks of a favorable political environment after the election. IF republicans can control congress, my optimism would increase that Washington would become more pro business and pro investor.
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
Danielita,
In this case I downloaded the raw data from Yahoo Finance and sorted/manipulated to perform analysis. Using Yahoo is amateurish, but I figure the daily OHLC data is from a 3rd party and should be accurate.
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
I own it. The beauty of the markets is they behave just as people/herds do, so it is often possible to predict future behavior. In this case, there is plenty of support for the rally continuing through to a retest of the all-time highs.
Frankly, at that point, I am likely to move 50% - 100% into cash.
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
Timothy,
In 1956, April was -1.11% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was -5.13% In 1964, April was +0.61% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +7.31% In 1972, April was +0.44% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +10.13% In 1976, April was -1.10% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +4.56% In 1980, April was +4.11% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +32.98% In 1984, April was +0.55% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +5.04% In 1992, April was +2.79% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +7.93% In 1996, April was +1.34% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +14.75%
Thus, April was up 6 of 8 with an average return of +0.95% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was up 7 of 8 with an average return of +9.70%
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
baystoeninc,
I have analyzed that data as well. Since 1950 there have been 8 occurrences of > 10% Q1 returns. In 6 of 8, April was also positive, with an average return of 0.64% for the month. This compares with an average April return of 1.66% for all positive Q1 occurrences.
For the balance of the year, the market was up 7 of 8 occurrences, with an average return from April 1 - Dec 31 of 4.7%. This compares to an average April 1 - Dec 31 return of 9.22% for all positive Q1 occurrences.
It appears the data show that in years where Q1 returns exceed 10%, performance tends to be worse than when Q1 returns are between 0% and 10%.
11 Benjamin Graham Stocks For Defensive Investors [View article]
Followers of Graham would disagree with most, if not all of this list. No discussion of book value, let alone working capital is provided. Graham was famous for buying companies for less than book value, and in some cases less than net working capital. Stocks in this list generally do not meet either criteria.
2012 Could Be A Monster Year For The S&P [View article]
I agree there are unanswered structural issues, notably employment. I admit I do not have an effective long-term answer to that problem, but who does? In the long-term (measured in decades) I am not bullish on the U.S. In the short-term, I believe the reinflation and election argument will aid in pushing us near recent and all-time market highs. What my article does not touch upon, but is addressed in my InstaBlog posts, is what happens after we retest these highs. My opinion is we fall hard (by as much as 30%) as unaddressed structural issues resurface in 2013 and beyond.
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
In this case I downloaded the raw data from Yahoo Finance and sorted/manipulated to perform analysis. Using Yahoo is amateurish, but I figure the daily OHLC data is from a 3rd party and should be accurate.
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
Frankly, at that point, I am likely to move 50% - 100% into cash.
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
In 1956, April was -1.11% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was -5.13%
In 1964, April was +0.61% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +7.31%
In 1972, April was +0.44% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +10.13%
In 1976, April was -1.10% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +4.56%
In 1980, April was +4.11% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +32.98%
In 1984, April was +0.55% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +5.04%
In 1992, April was +2.79% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +7.93%
In 1996, April was +1.34% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was +14.75%
Thus, April was up 6 of 8 with an average return of +0.95% and April 1 thru Dec 31 was up 7 of 8 with an average return of +9.70%
After Historic Q1, Where To From Here? [View article]
I have analyzed that data as well. Since 1950 there have been 8 occurrences of > 10% Q1 returns. In 6 of 8, April was also positive, with an average return of 0.64% for the month. This compares with an average April return of 1.66% for all positive Q1 occurrences.
For the balance of the year, the market was up 7 of 8 occurrences, with an average return from April 1 - Dec 31 of 4.7%. This compares to an average April 1 - Dec 31 return of 9.22% for all positive Q1 occurrences.
It appears the data show that in years where Q1 returns exceed 10%, performance tends to be worse than when Q1 returns are between 0% and 10%.
Hasbro: Undervalued Income Pick [View article]
Hasbro: Undervalued Income Pick [View article]
Hasbro: Undervalued Income Pick [View article]
Hasbro: Undervalued Income Pick [View article]
11 Benjamin Graham Stocks For Defensive Investors [View article]
2012 Could Be A Monster Year For The S&P [View article]
2012 Could Be A Monster Year For The S&P [View article]
2012 Could Be A Monster Year For The S&P [View article]