Comments on John Cordes' articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-cordes/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-242338 242338 Sat, 30 Aug 2008 21:04:40 -0400
The name of the game is making a profit, and exploit human resources and all other resources as necessary in the process.

The hell with the future, I want to make mine NOW! China is talking the same language we have been talking for years. And they are "walking the walk". We have our oligarchs that run the show (after the voting is over), and I'm sure the same happens (after they vote in their villages).

What interests me most is whether the US dollar drives the price of oil on the international market. And what would happen if Muslim oil exporting nations (which use the gold dinar to trade among themselves) decide its time the rest of the world uses gold dinars to pay for oil? Where will the US dollar be then?

Solar and wind are going to have to come-on gangbusters to have any effect upon that potentially devasting scenario. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-241494 241494 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 09:06:34 -0400 In short your widget doesn't have to be terribly unique to be successful, you just have to have your widgets well postitioned at the right time and place with plenty of widget raw material available, a brand new widget manufacturing plant, and the growing popular belief that owning your widget or one like yours is the new way to go and might even save the planet. It also helps if the government will offer to pay part of the cost of owning your widget.
As to the Chinese PV group, yes there is similarity, however some or more established, have better balance sheets, more or less likely to create additional convertable senior debt, have greater production capacity in place, have more or less booked business, and have more or less manufacturing efficiencies. These are the reasons I prefer LDK over several others, and for smaller cap more speculative prefer SOL and CSUN. However I have to admit selling out half my position of LDK after the first 14.5pt run last week. I may have been premature it seems. Good luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-241266 241266 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:47:54 -0400
It seems to me that Q-Cells is quickly losing it's technological edge and will have to compete more directly with it's Chinese peers, and that Evergreen has licensed away a good deal of the upside of this market. What can you see in the Chinese and Taiwanese PV companies that is anything that supports a strong 3-5 year outlook (i'm not talking about these short-term trading chumps, but for investors)? I certainly don't see the R&D and innovation to suggest that they will be able to compete on any basis except prices which scares the bejesus outta me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-241256 241256 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:27:55 -0400 I have recently tripled my holdings in ESLR because it is a value play insofar as it is valued very low in relation to future sales, i.e. 3.1Billion in new sales in the first half of the year. Also, ESLR should directly benefit from the eventual passage of a renewables energy bill, as their business lends itself to retail installations from residential to large commercial scale, which will be precisely targeted by legislation as tax credits to end users and supplemental support to local incentive programs. In addition, ESLR has remained quite cheap for the good reason that it has not shown a positive quarter in some time, but having tripled it's manufacuring capacity to meet the newly booked sales, further capital expense items will have already been expensed and priced into the stock. You can expect that the first quarter that shows a profit will send the stock off on a run. That, however may or may not be the upcoming 3rd quarter report due out Oct. 27th, but should occur at least by the next. Meanwhile you can count on legislation to improve enterprise value of the stock until then. If the Democrats do well in Congress this is guaranteed, regardless of the Presidential outcome.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-241179 241179 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:44:42 -0400 I wrote this article Tuesday evening, submitted Wednesday, published Thursday. At the close Tuesday most Chinese Solars were off between 5% to 7% for no apparent reason. However one reason offered was the affect of the strengthening dollar which is a factor in the foreign currency exchange for some of the companies mentioned; From a Reuter's article August 18th regarding TSL and YGE: "Monday quarterly earnings more than doubled on strong demand for solar energy, but its shares fell as results missed. Wall Street estimates due to a foreign exchange loss and the company said it has yet to sign contracts for all of its 2009 output." And: "Results were hurt by a foreign currency exchange loss of 24 cents per share and a loss of 8 cents a share associated with the discontinuance of its Lianyungang polysilicon project."

Thus one of the several explanations for Chinese Solars failing to reflect their large quarter to quarter and year to year sales and profit improvements in share price has been thus offered on the arguement that a stronger dollar and weaker Chinese Renminbi might be a key factor. Hence my comment that the 6% drop on Chinese Solars Tuesday cannot be accounted for by this alone or even in significant fraction. Keeping most investors guessing why the Chinese solars lost 5% to 7% across the board on Tuesday.l Therefore one is left with speculation from these reports, that share price should be discounted due to the affect of the pricing of contracts, silicon supplies and energy on the dollar. However each Chinese Solar company is different and it is difficult to ascertain how sales contracts are written at each and every company. Despite this fact, all of the Chinese Solars remain extraordinarily volatile and undervalued relative to their earnings performances, and all of the solars took an average 6% percent loss Tuesday, and erstwhile a substantial gain today. So I ask you, not withstanding the article above, do you have a better explanation for this than the one I proposed? Or do you have more thorough research you'ld like to offer?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-241139 241139 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:24:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-241092 241092 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:27:43 -0400
The leaders of China and their political propaganda called that a socialist, but even themselves regard that as a lie. Marx must look at it in shock that you called it a communist.

As a matter of fact, USA today, according to Marx's standard, is more communist or socialist than China is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240927 240927 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:03:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240909 240909 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:41:38 -0400
Hm...China solar stocks have an inverse correlation to the dollar. As the dollar rises in value, contracts that these companies have in Europe decline in value. Most China solar stocks don't sell to clients in China or America.

I'm sorry to say, you need to do more research before posting an article like this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240848 240848 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 10:36:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240820 240820 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 10:13:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240764 240764 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 09:35:58 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240677 240677 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 08:11:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240662 240662 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:50:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93027-the-trouble-with-chinese-solar-companies?source=feed#comment-240647 240647 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:00:39 -0400