John Cordes

Solar Stocks Come Back to Earth

Lower polysilicon prices are counterintuitive for FSLR. Obviously this makes the panel makers more price competitive. You state; good conversion efficiencies, such as First Solar (FSLR). FSLR's conversion efficiency is among the worst in the market place. FSLR's only advantage is priceing to polysilicon, which is being eroded by the drop in poly prices.

Your article is full of erroneous comments and conclusions.

Solar Stocks Up, Anticipating Obama Victory

Being as how your last article entirely missed the massive two day run up in this sector, and your strong opinion was for more contraction and doom, I find it quite amazing that once again you poop out yet another article spreading caution and more negativity without even mentioning your negative analysis and advise was a bust. Could you be wrong once again? or what, trying to cover shorts?

What to Do Now With Solar Energy Stocks

There is such a smorgasboard of misinformation in this article it is hard to know where to start. As pointed out by another poster, LDK announce no need for financing, SOL just recieved large financing facility from the Bank of China, the entire sector took a long overdue swing to the upside yesterday, presumably just offsetting by one day the time between writing the article and seeing it published. Bummer.
You cite concerns with Pollysiclicone supplies then turn right around and talk about over production and cost erosion. Which is it ? Your analysis of FSLR's seems to be running in complete opposition of the opinion of the market, but you couldn't have known about the run up yesterday that preceeded the publication of this article. Most bazaar of all, you talk about the sector weakness and down trending as thought the stock market over all didn't crash in October, as though the sector had an isolated problem. It did, it crashed somewhat harder that the rest, but it will recover somewhat more aggresively too. Witness the near 15% to 20% yesterday in some stocks.

Goldman Turns Cautious on Solar Sector

Booked business, take or pay contracts, deposits extending out for years, applicable to ESLR, LDK, SOL etc. yet GS is down on Solar. American subsidies now in place, Octobers earnings a few days on many Chinese solars, I'm going to take a stab here and say, GS is accumulating while encouraging the public to dump. I believe I'll ride this out.

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

Your thesis is somewhat erroneous. Solar stocks, particularly the Chinese solars are suffering because of commodities decline. Pollysilicone in this instance is being treated like any other commodity. Of course, as commodities go, oil is correlated. The world wide slump in commodities indicates demand destruction for oil. Try charting against commodity prices and see what comes up.

While the Solar Sector Bottoms in the Near Term, LDK Solar Stands Out

LDK forward PE is in the single digits.

Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings

The failure to distinguish between Chinese solars such as SOL and LDK (13P/E and 19P/E) and ridiculously low forward P/E's and stocks such as FSLR and SPWR (94P/E and 134P/E is hardly good critical analysis. Again the vertical intigration, booked sales, lower smelting costs, subsidies and potential US energy subsidies for renewables makes any value play in the sector phenomenal. I believe this author is short on some or all of these stocks. The linkage of Solars to Oil futures prices is emotional not tangible, insofar as it has the appearance of reducing urgency for the US Congress to legislate on it. I do not think this is a serious factor as both parties, and particularly the Dems have virtually promised major renewable energies legislation in their convention. And being as how the Dems have this election to lose, as they look pretty well locked, I would bet on serious legislation no later than Jan. '09 if not sooner. Sorry to say, I think this article has an agenda and is nearly useless for analysis sake.

Solar Breaks Oil Price Dependence

Also, relative to the comments about Henry Ford: You are quite correct, that if you believe in "peak oil", regardless of the time frame, then you must accept the notion that a pradigm shift is inevitable. In other words, much as prior to the turn of the previous century when whale oil was relied on to illuminate homes and horse traffic was such a sanitation nuiscance in big cities, the paradigm shift built around petrolium oil. Obviously in hindsight it was enevitable, but at the time it seemed a stretch. What would run on oil? where was the infrastructure to deliver it? and how would acceptance drive the cost of building the necessary industry to bring it about. People were quite fond of their horses and smokeless whale oil. Petroleum oil was smokey and smelly by comparison. The industry and wealth in many of our North Eastern port cities was built around whaling, and people were reluctant to abandon this. When Ford delivered a low cost vehicle that ran on petroleum oil, the paradigm shift was complete. When some car company can deliver an affordable electric or hydrogen car, then the pace of things will pick up and oil will be headed for the anachronisms of history a hundred years from now.

Solar Breaks Oil Price Dependence

I am completely befuddled as to why any discussion of Solar stocks is so controversial and so political. I follow these stories and commentaries regularly, and the level of vituperative has increased dramatically. Everything from conspircacy theories to good old name calling fills up half of the submissions.
So lighten up. We're not on SA to round up votes, we're trying to garner useful investment information. If politics is a component which influences that, then try and be rational about it. (Go find a political blog site to rant on.)

By the way oil has at times had linkage to solar stocks, but has become less of a factor. When oil was running up very dramatically, solar benefitted from the belief that this would more quickly deliver more subsidies from various countries and create comparative cost efficiencies. Subsequently, oil prices began to influence the cost of smelting polysillicone and transports costs which then cause solar to actually link inversly with oil, pretty much like all equities did. The author is certainly right that if oil recedes to much lower levels (under $60 or $70), legislative incentive for passing the renewables bill will undoubtedly become less driven and consumers will be disincentivised to purchase with paybacks that require twenty plus years. On the other hand, it is widely accepted that the trend in polysillicon, which cost is influenced by available refining capacity, is toward cost errosion. We have two presidential candidates spewing many promises about renewables, albeit the Democrats have a good more emphasis. So perhaps the upcoming legislation has become bullet proof. Individual Solar companies are not all the same for sure, while Chinese Solars are almost all undervalued relative to their American counterparts. I personally submitted an article about this; "What's the Problem with Chinese Solars?". Relative symbols, CSUN, SOL, LDK, and ESLR, FSLR.