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John Early

 
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  • Strong Q2 GDP Giving Way To Weak Q3
    Sun, Jul. 20 SPY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Q2 GDP will likely come in with a 3% or 4% handle.
    • Q3 appears to be off to a weak start of less than 1% and could turn out negative.
    • The picture painted by The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators is too rosy.
    • Improvement in the growth rate last year was mostly inventory building and poses risk of recession.
  • Why Job Numbers Will Be Weak The Next 3 Months
    Wed, Jul. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Job growth lags GDP growth by 5 months.
    • Negative GDP growth January through March implies weaker Job growth for June through August.
    • Weak jobs numbers will likely disappoint stock bulls and bond bears.
  • Why Jobless Claims Suggest Economic Expansion Is In Late Innings
    Fri, May. 23 SPY 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Low initial jobless claims is after glow of economic strength 5 months ago.
    • Early in an economic recovery/expansion GDP growth moves up faster than initial jobless claims drop.
    • Late in an expansion, GDP growth drops off faster than jobless claims move up.
    • Gap between initial claims and GDP growth suggest recession could start within a year.
  • Interest Rates Make Stock Bubble Bigger Than In 2000 And 1929
    Tue, May. 20 SPY 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Fair value of stocks maximizes with 10-year Treasury yield around 4.8%.
    • A yield of 2.54% historically came with a stock valuation less than half the current level.
    • The 3 months T-bill yield of 0.03% normally comes with stock valuation about 70% lower than current valuation.
    • Margin debt contributes to the bubble.
    • Valuation by itself gives no clue about near term market direction.
  • Higher Inflation May Force Fed To Tighten Within A Year
    Wed, May. 7 SPY 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Fed has good reason to set a 2% inflation target.
    • Fed is committed to tightening if inflation goes above 2%.
    • Lagged effect of money growth threatens 2.5% inflation or higher within a year.
    • Inflation may end bull market soon.
  • Stocks More Overvalued Than At 10 Of Last 18 Market Peaks
    Sun, Apr. 13 SPY 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Current PE using trailing 12 month earnings is higher than at average market peak.
    • Pundits who claim stocks are not overvalued are using meaningless noise of PE spikes that occur because earnings collapsed in a recession.
    • When a bull market has run for a few years, a declining PE can be a sign prices are about to roll over. They could be now?
  • Economy Knocking At Recession's Door
    Sat, Apr. 5 SPY 74 Comments

    Summary

    • Real economy poised to stall into recession.
    • Apparent strength in financial economy will not save real economy.
    • There is no pent up demand because pent up desire lacks the money to be pent up demand.
  • Missed Lesson Of Great Depression And Financial Crisis Blinds Economists To Bubble And Coming Recession
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Mar. 24 SPY, QQQ, DIA 204 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. economy will likely grow less than 1% this year with a recession starting in 2014 or 2015.
    • Economists have missed the lesson about marginal income tax rates they should have learned from The Great Depression and great recession.
    • This misunderstanding likely makes 2014 the 10th straight year mainstream economists over forecast growth for the coming year.
    • The misunderstanding of marginal tax rates also prevents seeing bubbles.
    • There is a stock market bubble and it will pop with the coming recession.
  • 4 Reasons S&P 500 Earnings Will Falter In 2014
    Mon, Jan. 27 DIA, SPY, QQQ 50 Comments
  • 4 Demographic Influences To Crash Stocks In 2014
    Dec. 13, 2013 SPY 63 Comments
  • Monetary Base Says Buy Bonds Sell Stocks
    Nov. 21, 2013 TENZ, TLH, TLT 12 Comments
  • Consumers 1 Year Away From Opening Pocketbooks
    Nov. 13, 2013 SPY, SH 8 Comments
  • Deficit To Cripple S&P 500 Earnings?
    Oct. 25, 2013 SPY 17 Comments
  • A Tale Of 2 ISMs And The Coming Recession
    Oct. 1, 2013 SPY 5 Comments
  • Demographics That Slammed Economy In 2008 Now Poised To Slam Stocks
    Sep. 26, 2013 SPY 20 Comments
  • Can Stocks Survive This Trend?
    Sep. 4, 2013 16 Comments
  • CFNAI Suggests June Job Losses
    Jul. 2, 2013 SPY, IEF, TLH Comment!
  • S&P 500 Price Is 2 Years Ahead Of Earnings
    May. 30, 2013 SPY 16 Comments
  • Stealth Recession Leading Indicators Disconnected
    May. 23, 2013 SPY 13 Comments
  • Stall Speed: Look For Weak Or Negative Job Growth Friday
    Apr. 30, 2013 SPY 2 Comments
  • Fed Has Your Front But Exposes S&P's Backside
    Apr. 16, 2013 SPY 2 Comments
  • Dollar To Drop 11% In Next Year
    Apr. 4, 2013 SPY, GLD, FAX 28 Comments
  • Bernanke Put To Expire Worthless In March
    Feb. 26, 2013 SPY 65 Comments
  • Stocks More Overvalued Than 1929
    Feb. 12, 2013 IWM, DIA, SPY 208 Comments
  • Why Economists Don't See The Coming Recession And Popping Stock Bubble
    Jan. 31, 2013 SPY, IVV, DIA 70 Comments
  • Tax Policy Will Send Unemployment Back To 9% And Tank Stocks
    Dec. 21, 2012 DIA, SPY 50 Comments
  • Don't Fear Sequestration
    Nov. 29, 2012 SPY 6 Comments
  • Accounting Games Hide Deteriorating S&P 500 Earnings
    Nov. 20, 2012 DIA, IVV, SPY 8 Comments
  • Money Growth Vs. Inflation With Implications For Gold, Bonds And Stocks
    Nov. 6, 2012 GLD, ILTB, SPY 26 Comments
  • Marginal Tax Rates Killed Growth And Threaten Earnings
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 12, 2012 SPY 187 Comments
  • Low Interest Rates Mean Stocks Are Over-Valued, Not Under-Valued
    Sep. 20, 2012 SPY 24 Comments
  • S&P 500 Earnings Poised To Plummet
    Sep. 11, 2012 IVV, SPY 25 Comments